Barnwell: Coles, Favre the standout QB & WR of week 12

puddnhead · Nov 25, 2008

I don't like posting every article I can find, but I found this one really intriguing and different in how it approaches evaluating performance. I'll c&p a small part to whet the appetite, but you should really follow the link to read the whole thing (and I can't cut & pate tables anyway)

http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/news/story?id=3723735

....Of course, we use yards when talking about football players because it's simple to so: Until the advent of advanced statistics, it was impossible to keep track of the context in which yards were garnered, so for better or worse, context was left out of the discussion -- despite being crucial to establishing the validity of the measure. Getting 536 receiving yards in 12 games in 2008 wouldn't be anything special, but in 1936, it made Don Hutson the league leader by nearly 30 percent. It's easy to understand how statistics can be twisted at the extremes like the examples above, but all those less-obvious situations need to be adjusted, too. DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average) and DYAR (Defense-adjusted Yards Above Replacement), our two core statistics, adjust every play in the league this season for down, distance, the strength of the opponent and the game situation.

In Week 12, those adjustments analyzed the performance of the quarterback who threw for the 17th-most yards and determined that he had the best week of any quarterback in the NFL. That quarterback is Brett Favre. Favre threw for 224 yards, but there are multiple factors that push him up to the top spot. He completed 78 percent of his passes, and four defensive pass interference penalties cost him an additional four completions and 42 yards. He was sacked only twice, and he threw a single pick against two touchdowns. He converted 6 of 13 third- and fourth- down situations.

The most important factor? He was facing the Tennessee Titans, who have had the best pass defense of any team in football through the first 11 weeks of the year. Those same numbers against the Lions in a blowout may have earned Favre the same number of fantasy points, but when it comes to Favre's actual performance -- the exact thing statistics are supposed to measure -- those numbers would likely be considered a disappointment, and with good reason....
Click to expand...

He goes on to reveal other tidbits, such as that Favre has the lead league for QBs for getting PIs called on the defenses he's played. He also uses similar logic to say Coles had a better day than Moss or T.O. ...

Barnwell: Coles, Favre the standout QB & WR of week 12

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Barnwell: Coles, Favre the standout QB & WR of week 12

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