Article: "Jets 10-step Offseason Plan"

Discussion in 'New York Jets' started by KY Jets Fan, Jan 24, 2023.

  1. KY Jets Fan

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    "At this time last year, the Jets still felt confident in Zach Wilson’s future as their quarterback, and offensive coordinator Mike LaFleur was viewed as a coach on the rise.

    Now LaFleur is gone and the Jets are preparing for life at starting quarterback with someone other than Wilson, the No. 2 pick in 2021. For a team with legitimate playoff aspirations — especially with a top-level defense and offense full of intriguing young weapons — this will be a crucial offseason for general manager Joe Douglas and coach Robert Saleh to help the Jets break that NFL-worst 12-year playoff skid.

    Here’s a 10-step plan to get the Jets where they want to go.

    1. Find the right offensive coordinator
    This is the most pressing concern. The Jets went into this offensive coordinator search well aware they’d have to overcome the obvious knocks against the job: no obvious answer at quarterback and perceived job security questions. Some candidates have expressed those concerns and others have said “no thanks” to interview requests, including Dolphins quarterbacks coach Darrell Bevell and Browns offensive line coach Bill Callahan.

    Some of the other reported candidates the Jets have interviewed (or requested to) thus far:

    • Nathaniel Hackett, fired Broncos head coach
    • Klint Kubiak, Broncos passing game coordinator
    • Chad O’Shea, Browns passing game coordinator
    • Nick Caley, Patriots tight ends coach
    • Brian Johnson, Eagles quarterbacks coach
    • Kevin Patullo, Eagles passing game coordinator
    • Marcus Brady, former Colts offensive coordinator
    • Joe Brady, Bills quarterbacks coach

    The search is far from over. As I reported a few weeks ago, the Jets are interested in Frank Reich but would likely have to wait until head coaching searches wrap up (and he’s not hired) before he’d even consider an interview. Saleh said he was open to revamping the Jets’ scheme, and based on who he’s talked to so far, that seems to be the direction in which they’re heading.

    I wouldn’t describe any candidate as the front-runner, though Saleh’s relationship with a couple of them — Hackett (worked together in Jacksonville) and Kubiak (close with his father) — are hard to ignore. I also know that many in the Jets building are fond of Patullo, who was the quarterbacks coach there in 2015-16.

    O’Shea, from the Patriots tree, is also an interesting candidate. He didn’t mesh as OC with the Dolphins under Brian Flores and was fired but was considered for the Giants’ offensive coordinator job last year and is getting interviewed by a few teams this time, too. He’s gotten a lot out of an undermanned wide receiver group in Cleveland and it’s believed he’d likely want to run a pass-happy scheme."
     
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  2. KY Jets Fan

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    "2. Extend Quinnen Williams
    Williams has made it clear he wants his contract settled by OTAs. Whether the Jets meet that deadline remains to be seen, but Douglas needs this negotiation to go better than it did with safety Jamal Adams. There are other defensive tackles — Dexter Lawrence and Jeffery Simmons among them — due for significant paydays this offseason, so it would behoove Douglas to set the market instead of having others do it for him.

    It’s unclear what exactly Williams is looking for, but he’ll likely want to be one of the two or three highest-paid defensive tackles. Aaron Donald makes $31.6 million per year, and Leonard Williams is second at $21 million. Somewhere in the middle feels reasonable — figure around $24 million to $26 million per year.

    Getting it done early would also allow the Jets to reduce Williams’ 2023 cap hit ($9.59 million) and save some cap.

    3. Restructure C.J. Mosley, John Franklin-Myers contracts
    There is no scenario in which the Jets can go into 2023 with Mosley on the books for a $21.4 million cap hit. An ideal outcome would be something like what the Giants pulled off with Sterling Shepard last year: Having Mosley agree to a reduced salary and chopping the last year off his contract to get him to free agency after 2023 instead of 2024. Even though Mosley did just make the Pro Bowl and All-Pro, he wouldn’t make as much money in free agency as he’s set to with the Jets, so there might be a happy medium for both parties.

    As for Franklin-Myers: He’s still only 26 and coming off a solid season, so restructuring his contract — converting salary into a signing bonus to clear cap, and spreading that hit over multiple years — would make sense this offseason. He has a $12.4 million cap hit, but per Over the Cap, the Jets can potentially save around $7 million with a restructure. He’s signed through 2025."
     
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  3. KY Jets Fan

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    "4. Cut Corey Davis, Braxton Berrios and others for cap space
    The Jets are committed to finding an upgrade at quarterback this offseason (more on that shortly) and that likely will cost a pretty penny. They also have other roster holes they need to fill. Douglas has some difficult decisions to make in cutting key players to save money.

    The Jets are projected to be over the cap, per Over the Cap.

    People in and around the Jets are operating under the assumption that Corey Davis will be a cap casualty. He’s been a solid player and leader for the Jets, but has also missed 12 games due to injuries the last two years. Cutting him saves $10.5 million with a minimal penalty.

    Cutting Berrios (18 catches, 145 yards) would save $5 million. The Jets have Garrett Wilson, Elijah Moore and Denzel Mims on rookie contracts, so they can stomach the losses of Davis and Berrios.

    Three of the Jets’ 2020 draft picks — safety Ashtyn Davis, cornerback Bryce Hall and punter Braden Mann — all qualify for the NFL’s proven performance escalators for non-first-round picks. So their salaries will jump to $2.745 million, making all three likely cut candidates, unless they agree to pay cuts.

    Cutting those three, plus Davis and Berrios, would save the Jets around $24 million.

    Safety Jordan Whitehead ($7.25 million) is also a cut candidate.

    5. Cut or trade Carl Lawson
    This will be the most difficult decision the Jets make this offseason. Lawson is a high-quality defensive end who had a nice season (seven sacks, 16 QB hits, 49 total pressures, per PFF) coming off the Achilles injury that cost him all of 2021. But the Jets are deep at defensive end — 2022 first-rounder Jermaine Johnson should be ready to start — and would save $15.4 million by parting ways with Lawson, with only $333,333 in dead cap.

    The Jets shouldn’t be in the habit of getting rid of high-quality players, but if their goal is to upgrade the roster elsewhere — especially at quarterback — they might not have a choice but to part ways with Lawson."
     
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  4. KY Jets Fan

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    "6. Trade for Derek Carr
    Now that it appears Lamar Jackson is off the table, the Jets might have to pursue Carr. Unless Tom Brady or Aaron Rodgers indicates a willingness to join the Jets — which still seems far-fetched — Carr is their best option.

    There are certainly some knocks against Carr — his contract, struggles in cold weather, propensity to hold the ball too long — but he’d also be the most talented quarterback the Jets have had in a long time. Over the last three years, he’s averaged 4,143 yards, 24 touchdowns and 12 interceptions, without missing any games due to injury.

    Also, the Jets defense is better than any he’s played with for the Raiders. Over the last five years, the Raiders ranked 26th, 26th, 30th, 24th and 32nd in scoring defense. The Jets ranked fourth in 2022.

    The 31-year-old Carr has a no-trade clause, so he’d have to approve any deal. The Raiders set a deadline of Feb. 15 to move Carr before his contract becomes guaranteed, so they don’t have a lot of leverage in trade talks.

    It also might be appealing for the Jets to have their quarterback situation figured out before free agency in March.

    Jimmy Garoppolo is another obvious option, though now that the Jets might not run a 49ers-esque offensive scheme with LaFleur gone, the injury-prone Garoppolo seems less appealing. Daniel Jones and Geno Smith are unlikely to hit free agency. And other potential options like Baker Mayfield, Jacoby Brissett, Andy Dalton, Ryan Tannehill and Gardner Minshew don’t really move the needle.

    7. Let Mike White and Quincy Williams walk
    The Jets have some difficult decisions to make with their own free agents. It should be an easy decision to bring back two of them: Bryce Huff, who will be a restricted free agent, and Greg Zuerlein, their first productive kicker in years.

    Connor McGovern isn’t a Pro Bowler, but he’s a solid center who shouldn’t be too costly to bring back. Some other role players — defensive lineman Solomon Thomas, linebacker Kwon Alexander, guard Nate Herbig — are worth bringing back at the right price, too.

    It seems unlikely that White returns if the Jets also add an expensive veteran quarterback, especially since they are likely stuck with Zach Wilson and his $9.6 million cap hit this year already.

    Quincy Williams will be a difficult decision, especially since he’s Quinnen Williams’ brother, but his value has gone up around the league and he might get priced out of the range the Jets are willing to pay. At the right price, it’s certainly worth bringing Williams back — he’s an impressive athlete and loved by the coaching staff — but Douglas shouldn’t get into the habit of paying too much to linebackers. The 18 highest-paid linebackers all make at least $7 million per year.

    The Jets can also probably survive not bringing back defensive tackle Sheldon Rankins, though he’s worth re-signing at the right price, too."
     
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  5. KY Jets Fan

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    "8. Bring back Duane Brown
    If Brown doesn’t retire — there’s been no indication in either direction yet — then he’s worth bringing back as a veteran option at tackle. He’ll spend the offseason rehabbing his shoulder injury, which he valiantly fought through this season. Brown carries a $11.28 million cap hit and, if healthy, is still a solid option.

    The Jets will still need to add reinforcements, especially with George Fant expected to leave in free agency, but entering the offseason Brown coupled with two wild cards (Mekhi Becton, Max Mitchell) is a good place to start.

    9. Sign linebacker, safety, defensive tackle in free agency
    Never rule out Douglas trying to make a splash in free agency. If he did, it would likely be at offensive tackle or safety — though offensive tackle is less likely if Brown returns. The big names at those spots:

    Safety: Jessie Bates (Bengals), Jordan Poyer (Bills), Vonn Bell (Bengals), Chauncey Gardner-Johnson (Eagles).

    Whether it’s free agency or the draft, the Jets will be looking for upgrades at those two spots, the biggest holes on the roster. After cuts they’ll also need help at linebacker and wide receiver, a new punter and could even use another running back, especially as Breece Hall recovers from his ACL injury.

    The only notable defensive tackle under contract for 2023 is Quinnen Williams — Rankins, Thomas and Nathan Shepherd are all free agents — so they’ll need to add some depth there, too, though it helps that both Franklin-Myers and Micheal Clemons can shuffle inside.

    10. Draft offensive tackle and/or safety early
    Even if the Jets sign players at these spots in free agency, expect them to attack these positions early in the draft. They’re picking 13th (first round) and 44th (second round), though that second-round pick could be used in a Carr deal.

    The Athletic’s Dane Brugler said on the “Can’t Wait” podcast that Ohio State’s Paris Johnson, Northwestern’s Peter Skoronski and Georgia’s Broderick Jones would all be worthy targets in the first round at tackle. Alabama safety Brian Branch, whom Brugler projected to the Jets in his latest mock, would be a top option at that spot, too."
     
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  6. KY Jets Fan

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    Good article from Zack here IMO and hits on a lot of things we've already discussed for this offseason.

    Hiring the right OC, trading for Carr, restructures of Mosley, Lawson, JFM, addressing the OL/S/LB in FA/the draft.

    What say you TGG? How does this plan sound to you all and do you agree with Zack that it could get us into contention in 2023?
     
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  7. ConcordeChops

    ConcordeChops 2018 International Poster Award Winner

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    It's a good article with a lot of common sense moves in there. I don't disagree with any of the points, in fact the only point I do disagree with is the term "legit contenders". Contenders for what, exactly?
     
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  8. JetFanInPA

    JetFanInPA Well-Known Member

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    Agree with some things, not with others. What's the receiver core look like without Corey Davis? Wilson, Moore, Smith, Mims. One other significant addition is necessary. I'd rather try to restructure Corey Davis and draft somebody maybe early on Day 3. Not sure who they can sign for a better price who would be an upgrade on Davis. But if you cut him, WR becomes a bigger priority.

    I wouldn't be surprised if Quincy Williams gets overpaid on the market. If so, I think they like Jamien Sherwood and would try to play him more, but definitely would need to draft somebody too. I hope they can bring him and Kwon back though

    I feel like they can get better production and more versatility at a much better price at OT than Duane Brown. He's a cut IMO

    Not sure about letting Rankins walk. He was solid this year.

    The safeties he lists I think will cost a lot. Not opposed, but obviously they need to cut Whitehead and then probably go with a rookie or somebody on a bargain deal at the other spot
     
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  9. jcass10

    jcass10 Well-Known Member

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    Cutting Corey Davis and not legitimately replacing him seems like a bad idea. His cap hit for next season is 30th in the NFL, and after free agency will probably be 40th. The Jets would be dangerously close to Garrett Wilson and nothing else. Who's to say Moore doesn't request a trade again? If they also get rid of Berrios as well, that means Mims/Jeff Smith is your number three receiver. Seems like a bad idea. Roll with Wilson, Moore and Davis again. Give Carr a reason to want to come here at least. If they cut Davis, I'd consider WR a potential first round need again.

    I'd be OK cutting Carl Lawson I think. He's a nice player, but they're going to need money bring Carr in. He's a nice player, but I have zero concerns replacing him with Jermain Johnson.

    The rest I'm OK with. I don't love the idea of S in the second round, but its not going to keep me up at night.
     
  10. westiedog1

    westiedog1 Well-Known Member

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    If you did #6 and nothing else, it would go a long way in making the Jets a winner.
     
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  11. Jets79

    Jets79 Well-Known Member

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    Yeah to me the keys are getting the OC right (not sure we have that with the list of guys we’ve talked with so far) and getting a legit QB. Options at QB are not great but we’ve been so bad there that even a league average QB would be a huge upgrade for us.

    my two biggest issues are cutting Davis and Lawson,because like it or not, we don’t have players ready to replace them really.

    With Davis, I feel like he drops too many passes and has misses too many games to be a legit #1 guy, but for us, he’d be #2 to GW. For all the hype on Moore and hope for Mims, neither guy has really delivered and both have had off field issues. Some of that may have been MLF related so maybe that goes away with a new HC but I don’t trust either guy to develop …they’ll have to earn that and maybe they will…I’m not saying they can’t, but I’d feel better with Davis than without.

    as for Lawson, I still think he’s our best edge rusher, and I also think he’ll be a lot better two years removed from his Achilles, so I would look to maybe restructure rather than cut. We have several good guys at edge, and I have hope for Clemons and Johnson, but Lawson is better than both of them right now. With the emphasis we place on DL pressure, I think cutting Lawson would be a huge miss.

    I also like Quincy and would love to keep him

    honestly I wouldn’t fuck with the D too much…they played well enough to win…just upgrade safety and try and restructure the rest.

    this offseason has to focus on QB and OL. I’d say draft the best OT at 13 and draft more OL in later rounds…if we trade or cut Davis then we need a receiver too.
     
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  12. Savatage

    Savatage Well-Known Member

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    Good article, all stuff we've discussed happening.

    I don't know much about the whole restructuring deal, but, can we do that with Lawson as well as JFM?

    To me, Quincy Williams is a streaky player that I think we could replace in the draft, however, If his price is reasonable, then, okay sign him, if not, let him walk.
     
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  13. ColoradoContrails

    ColoradoContrails Well-Known Member

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    I agree with most of this. I think we don't have enough talent anywhere to cut really high end talent without guaranteed equal or better talent assured to replace them. Douglas may well have to perform some "bookkeeping magic" to retain these guys.

    Really the plan is simpler than "10 points":

    1. Hire an experienced, successful OC who can implement a scheme that the players can execute - and I'm not just referring to ZW here...much of the grumbling may well have been rooted in their dissatisfaction with MLF's scheme and playcalling. Hire this guy before settling on any QB to ensure they go after the right one who this new OC agrees he can work with.

    2. Get a good - not just adequate - QB. My choices are: Rodgers, Brady, Carr, Tannehill, and after that IDK.

    3. Fix the damn OL! Use FA, trades, and the draft, but get it fixed once and for all!

    After those three massive priorities, they need to:

    4. Upgrade the LB and Safety positions.

    5. Add another elite receiver.

    6. Upgrade the C position.

    Bottom line: If they do a really good job - as they must to save their jobs - with items 1,2, & 3, alone they'll significantly improve the team, assuming everyone returns from injury and stays healthy. If they also hit on items 4, 5, & 6, they could be strong contenders for the SB.
     
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  14. LAJet

    LAJet Well-Known Member

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    In my simple mind if we get any of the QB mentioned, and we did little else, it would make us an immediate playoff contender, period end of story.
    Now, add just two factors
    1) An OC that has experience, has demonstrated a flexible approach to game calling and developing offensive schemes to player strengths, and can develop young talent, especially at QB,
    AND
    2) Build the OL to supplement our key players back from IR
    The rest is business as usual, release all marginal and overpaid contributors, continue to build thru the draft including a QB and fill a couple of pieces via free agency. I see another top WR and may be LB via free agency.
    And at that point I don’t want to hear shit about JD, Saleh is on the clock, and the only measure is wins and losses.
     
  15. Jets79

    Jets79 Well-Known Member

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    Yup…not rocket science here guys…we’ve all been saying the same stuff…we can quibble about a few things (I say keep Davis as WR2 and definitely keep Lawson but maybe restructure as losing either guy will require us to replace with equal or better production and I’m not convinced existing receivers or edge players can do that)

    but really the only thing we REALLY need to do is get a decent QB and fix the OL

    we do those two things we are a playoff team
     
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  16. papapump

    papapump Well-Known Member

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    Perhaps the Raiders will take ZW in the Carr trade.
     
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  17. Jonathan_Vilma

    Jonathan_Vilma Well-Known Member

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    I’d shuffle through the free agent deck to see if I can get someone a little younger than Duane Brown.

    The list of OC’s is super uninspiring as it stands right now.

    I’d say if you trade for Carr, you can let White walk. You can’t really do so if you go for any options lesser than Carr.

    Is Quincy Williams going to command that much money?
     
  18. KingRoach

    KingRoach Well-Known Member

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    I was going to put this in crystal ball but here works.

    They hire a team as OC and -insert title here- who have worked together and one’s focus will be specifically to get the best out of ZW. Because of pedigree and relationships, I’m predicting Hackett and Kubiak. I really wanted the dad so I’m hoping to get some genetic Shannahan esqe power from Kubiak Jr

    The Jets haven’t admitted* defeat with ZW so they’re not going for a QB who’ll get a long commitment on the open market. AR is the 1st choice and getting a handshake deal in place is top priority. 1A priority is to not get screwed so someone like Jimmy G makes the most sense. No draft capital but also could be a trade piece if necessary.

    As much as we are reminded our OL needs work, our starting lineup isn’t bad….IMO we need strong back ups and developmental pieces, to me those are 2nd and 3rd rd picks but JD won’t let it be his Waterloo.

    If my dream trade is in place (which includes AR’s LT) with a handshake I could see JD trading back this year to recoup some future lost assets..

    I’m going to miss how much fun this time of year is when we’re in the 30’s
     
    #18 KingRoach, Jan 24, 2023
    Last edited: Jan 24, 2023
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  19. HomeoftheJets

    HomeoftheJets Well-Known Member

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    Nathaniel Hackett, fired Broncos head coach This is Adam Gase.
    Klint Kubiak, Broncos passing game coordinator This is Dowell Loggains.
    Chad O’Shea, Browns passing game coordinator I swear, if I see one more Patriots guy...
    Nick Caley, Patriots tight ends coach ...fuck.
    Brian Johnson, Eagles quarterbacks coach Don't know him, so maybe?
    Kevin Patullo, Eagles passing game coordinator Know him, so maybe not?
    Marcus Brady, former Colts offensive coordinator I'd rather have MLF back.
    Joe Brady, Bills quarterbacks coach Finally someone good. So I know who we're not hiring.
     
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  20. HomeoftheJets

    HomeoftheJets Well-Known Member

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    Overall, I agree with most of this article. I don't think we should let Corey Davis walk though; aside from Garrett Wilson, he's the only WR we can count on.
     
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