This is a really tricky situation for both clubs. The Falcons really want Abraham, there is no doubt. The Jets want to get rid of Abraham, but want fair value. Which I completely understand. They have rights to him and why should they settle for less just because the guy is unhappy with the Jets organization? The problem from our side is that the Jets, more or less, accepted the offer from the Seahawks for the 31st pick, establishing Abraham's value to them. Yet, they are demanding our 15th pick. The value difference between our 15th and the Seahawks 31st is much larger than the value difference between the Seahawks 31st and our 47th. Per THR: Value Chart 15th - 1050 31st - 600 47th - 430 See the difference, and the dilemma? I am not totally against giving up the 1st for Abraham, as long as the Jets were to package their 2nd. I doubt this would happen, however. Per the media reports it appears the Jets have kinda shot themselves in the foot by accepting the 31st pick from Seattle. Because now, Atlanta knows what his value to the Jets is. We are offering a pick that is only 170 points less than the one Jets accepted from another team, yet the Jets are demanding a pick from us that is 450 points higher. Doesn't make sense and McKay is smarter than that. Like I said. I would wouldn't be opposed to sending the 1st as long as we got the 2nd in return with Abraham. I do however, believe the Falcons should up the ante by either offering a 2nd next year, Demorrio Williams, or TJ Duckett. Just to increase the value back to the offer the Jets accepted from the Seahawks. Thoughts.
I think a 2 and 3 for Abraham is reasonable. 1st round picks are hard to sign and having the 4th and 15th selections and getting those guys in training camp on time might be rough. There is great value in 2nd and 3rd rounders if you draft the right guys.
finally a falcon fan with a little bit of common sense...im giving the benfit of the doubt...good post...now kick off all your other buddies cuz they have no idea what the hell they are talking about
I disagree that the value between #15 and #31 is larger than the difference between #31 and #47. Even if it was the case, #31>#47. IMO, and the opinion of many draft people, there are 30-40 1st round grades this year, which is incredible, not the normal 15-20. The #47 will get you a 2nd round player, while anything in the top 35 or so will net you someone with a 1st round grade. And don't try to tell me that those points are true for every team in every draft. They aren't! I am not someone who needs #15 overall for Abraham straight up to get the deal done. BUT, ATL does have to offer the best deal. Abe + our 2nd rounder is still worse than #31 overall from SEA. I would do Abe + our 3rd rounder and maybe another later pick for #15 overall, or some other amalgamation of picks. BUT, again, ATL has to offer the best deal, NOT something 'resembling' the best offer.
First of all....nice to see a Falcon Fan coming to the board with some rational thought. I think you are essentially correct. Abraham is not worth the 15th pick, but more than the 47th. I think the ultimate agreement will end up being Abraham for the Falcons' 2nd, 3rd and possibly something else (player or low round pick) OR as you say, 2nd round this year and next. DbJ
this info/argument has been posted about a 1000 times...i will be the one to make the comment on how the 2nd and 3rd drops us out of the 40 first round talents comment so the atl picks are not as vauable as the chart grades them
if you want our 2nd rounder in addition to Abe...there is a crackpipe lit somewhere and we're not smoking it!
That would be awesome. However they don't have a 4th, so in order for them to trade their 2 and 3rd picks means they would only have 1 pick in 5 rounds. Thats not going to happen. I say we get their 1st and TJ Duckett and we give them our 2nd and Abe.
The problem with this is that you are basing your entire argument in the value chart, teams have different opinions on the value of the draft, and you also have to take the talent of the draft into consideration, and the talent dropoff from our 2nd round pick to your pick is a big dropoff
I think the 2nd and DeMorrio Williams might be tempting, but do we need another LB? Would rather get a 2nd this year and a 2nd and 4th next year
i think you're right. the same way ATL has essentially admitted Abe is worth a 15th pick by the contract they offered; we have essentially admitted Abe is worth a late R1 pick by accepting Seattle's offer. However, the value chart doesn't measure everything, and I still think only a R2,15 for Abe is a ripoff. Throw in Williams and/or a R3 pick, and it begins balancing out. cheers
Thats' one way of looking at it ... but there are MORE factors that should be considered Abraham was a first round pick Abraham has been to the probowl several years the Falcons want Abraham the Jets want 1st round compensation the Falcons have a first round pick abraham is worth a first round pick or possibly a second and the RIGHT player from the Falcons organization
The first offer that I ever posted was the following, and I would still do it. ATL send 06 2nd + 06 3rd + 07 2nd NYJ send John Abraham + 06 4th (Herm Pick) Atl sends 2nd rounders in this year and next year, and then drops a round from their 3rd rounder to our second 4th rounder this year. I don't think an offer of 06 2nd rd + 07 2nd rd is a better deal than #31 overall this year, so I would not do it.
ATL also shot themselves in the foot because by agreeing to the large contract with Abe, the Jets know how much he is worth to them. Well, the Jets didn't agree to anything with Seattle. The Falcons started the talks with the low-ball 2nd rounder and then agreeing with Abe on a huge contract, that shows ATL believes he has 1st round value. So technically ATL set the market. But since ATL was unwilling to give us the 1st round value they gave to Abe with the contract, Seattle came in with a package that included the 31st. This is how bidding and negotiations work. Seattle outbid the Falcons. It is now up to ATL to outbid Seattle again. The value you have to beat is the offer on the table is Seattle if you want Abe, and to have the Jets accept it.
While the clock is ticking away precious time, it's a matter of supply and demand, which is an ever changing flow. Don't think for a minute that many of the other 30+ clubs aren't considering their 1st round pick position and the possibility of trading for a player with known ability. Atlanta should consider other suitors in the market for Abe and beware. Regardless of the high picks we end up with, with so much talent needed at so many positions I believe it better in the long run to trade away the top high level picks and trade down for quantity. There's so much talent available in early and mid 2nd round that I'd rather see multiple options exercised than putting all ours eggs in one or two baskets.
If this were Strat-O-Matic football, then the arguement makes sense. However, this whole business with the "point value" of draft picks was created by someone who is more interested in statistics than reality. Again, if you evaluate the worth of a 29 year old Pro Bowl DE versus draft picks, the player is ALWAYS worth more. The known commodity is preferred over the unknown of the draft. So, you need to re-evaluate the "points system" and forget that the Jets were willing to take a #31 for Abraham...we don't know if that was the only thing involved...do we? The Abraham to Seattle for the #31 was conjecture and no one but the teams involved know for sure if that was the total of the deal...do we?
He's 27 and will be entering the prime of his career with 3 Pro-Bowls. He's a gamebreaker, difference maker and an excellent speed rusher...I don't want to hear bullshit about Falcon fans wanting to keep #15 so bad, don't give me the Jimmy Williams or Tye Hill's are better than Abraham, it's ludacris. Despite his injury problems, he is worth a helluva lot more than anyone on the board at #15...
