Some possibilities considering our current roster (with free agency additions). It's not at all clear at this point that we can get Saleh's value for Sam in a trade, as he's coming off a particularly bad year. Pick 2- Zach Wilson-QB (assuming he bulks up to at least 6'2" 215 lbs.) 23- Caleb Farley-CB (several teams will be scared off by his surgery) 34- Alex Leatherwood-G/T (good value for a need here) 66- Elijah Molden-CB (our replacement for Poole) 86- Quinn Meinerz-G/C (more depth for OL, potential starter in the future) 107- Chazz Suratt-LB (right now we have 4 LB's, incl. Mosley & Cashman) 146- Chris Rumph-LB (developmental OLB) 154- Robert Rochell-CB (fast, athletic developmental CB) 186- Kenny Yeboah-TE (much needed TE depth behind Herndon & Kroft) Roster: QB- Darnold, Wilson, Moran (Darnold starts until Wilson is ready) RB- Coleman, Johnson, Adams, Perrine WR- Davis, Crowder, Mims, Cole, Berrios, V. Smith TE- Herndon, Kroft, Yeboah OT- Becton, Fant, Edoga OG- Leatherwood, Lewis, Van Roten, Clark, Meinerz C- McGovern, Feeney DE- Lawson, JFM, Curry, K. Phillips, Huff, Zuniga DT- Q, Rankins, Fatukasi, Shepherd ILB- Mosley OLB- Davis, Cashman, Surratt, D. Phillips, Rumph CB- Farley, Hall, Molden, Austin, Guidry, Hardee, Rochell S- Maye, Joyner, Davis Obviously, we can't totally fix a 2-14 team in one offseason, but it's clear that we need to invest draft capital to shore up our OL, CB, and LB positions.
I like it man. A couple of those guys would need to fall to us like Farley and Leatherwood but it’s possible
Thanks. If Farley does not drop, there will be plenty of available CB choices with #1 CB potential (Newsome, Stokes,etc.). Leatherwood has been consistently mocked since late February as available at #34.
I don't think Yeboah or Molden are going to fall that far but it'd be cool if they did. I like them both. I was talking about Farley with my friend recently and I can't say anything about his play because I haven't really seen him play. Why did he wait until just now to have back surgery when he opted out? How did he aggravate it if it was an existing injury? I'd be scared bringing in a player off back surgery who also took the year off from football.
Overall a good job! I like the players you picked, and like the idea of drafting developmental players, I just think it's too early to even think about that. IMO we need a potential starting RB more than we need a developmental LB or CB or TE, and you don't have a RB. I like Rumph a lot and Yeboah, but we need to build starters and immediate depth first, and can worry about developmental players later.I don't know Rochell, but he sounds like a potentially good pick in a lower round. One I think OG has to be a bigger priority than CB; otherwise, we're making the same mistake as Mac did, drafting defense right after he took Sam. I think we need a starting OG at #23. I'm fine with Meinerz with the lower 3rd round pick, but #23 needs to be an OG. This is a great draft for OTs, and I like that you drafted Leatherwood, as he can potentially play RT, but I think he'll probably be better suited at OG, I think we can do better than Leatherwood at #23, however. I would probably take a better RT prospect, and play him at RG until Fant's contract is up, then slide him out to RT. By that point Meinerz or maybe Cameron Clark could slide into the starting RG job. I also think we need a TE higher. We don't know if we can count on Herndon or not, and Kraft is only a complementary TE, not really a starter imo. I thnk we need to take a TE like Hunter Long or Brevin Howard. I think the 4th round is about right for a WLB unless Saleh and Ulbrich want one higher/earlier.
It's hard to argue in principle with the points you made. For example, I would outright salivate at the prospect of adding a back like Etienne or Harris to take the pressure off our rookie QB. I just don't think that it fits in with the 49er back-by-committee style that we will probably run. Similarly, there are practical snags to your valid point that a great OG would probably have more impact in our offense than a great CB would have in our zone defense. I just have trouble seeing an OG who is worth pick 23 in our zone blocking OL. I've also considered drafting a OT like Mayfield at 23 and converting him to guard, but doubt that a conversion case like that would have more immediate impact than a #1 corner like Farley or Newsome. For me, the value in zone blocking guards begins at 34. I may be a fool, but I really liked the 2018 version of Herndon and think he's young enough to get back to that now that he has a competent TE coach like Middleton, not to mention a competent offensive coordinator! So, while I in principle agree with the points you make, I'm not sure that they're practical in the current situation. It'll be fun this year seeing how it shakes out, though!
Thanks for your thoughtful response. You make several good points. When I spoke about drafting a RB, I didn't mean Etienne or Harris, although normally, I'd love ot have one of them. I know this offense relies on RB by committee, and looks for fast RBs, so I was thinking RB somewhere in the 3rd-5th round range. RBs like Kenneth Gainwell, Jarret Patterson, Javian Hawkins. It will be interesting if Michael Carter or Javonte Williams fall lower than expected. Would JD take one of them because they're too good to pass up? IMO which position would have the greatest impact on its respective unit is not the most important factor to consider. IMO the #1 priority should be building around the QB (Wilson) we take and making sure that th OL is as good as it possibly can be. This, imo, is where value may have to take a backseat to need. If Alijah Vera-Tucker is there at #23, it will be a value pick. If Teven Jenkins is there at #23, he would be a value pick. Wyatt Davis could be a value pick. If Rashawn Slater fell for some crazy reason, he would definitely be a value pick at #23. I agree that for the rest of the OG and probably RT draft class, #34 is more aligned with their value. The thing is however, you know the scarcity of good OL in the NFL. Teams over draft to get the best OL they can. The Jets need to do the same. We simply cannot do the same thing to Wilson or our new QB that was done to Sam. Even more importantly, if the decision is to roll with Sam, or just to have him start this year while the rookie sits, then he deserves the best protection we can put in front of him. Taking a CB at #23, no matter how good he is or how much he'd impact the D, is not important, and imo is not the move that should be made. If Douglas does that, then he's no smarter than Mac imo, and we'll probably be looking for a new GM within a few years. You're not a fool. I'd like it if Herndon turned things around, and it would be better for the team, but we just can't count on that. We can't let emotion and sentimentality get in the way with Herndon any more than we can with Sam. If Herndon is to succeed, he may need real competition at the TE spot. Kroft isn't going to supply that imo. The SF offense relies on a fast TE who can get down the seam and create a mismatch. Brevin Jordan or Hunter Long would provide that level of competition and perhaps be a better fit in our offense. Most of the FA $s were spent on D, so most of the draft picks should go to the offense. This is also true because the offense was already way behind the defense, and there were far fewer keepers or potential keepers on offense thant here were on D, and we need to build around our QB so he can succeed. That can't be something that we just talk about during the year, and then when FA and the draft roll around, forget about, or say we have to be "balanced." How balanced has it been with a competent NFL D and an offense that couldn't beat most FBS colleges? How balanced has it been to have given Sam little or no support? Thank God, we're no longer using Mac's formula in the draft of BPA, of which players are rated the highest and in which round they should go. We are using the formula of looking for players who are great scheme fits, who have high rankings at their position, who have great character, and are fast. Anyway, it will be fun and interesting seeing what happens. I'm enjoying the discussion with you!
As before, I have to say I like your logic and believe your suggestions would be perfect in an ideal world. But who knows how things will play out in reality. For example, consider Albert Breer's recent mock in SI. Breer has Sewell, Slater, Vera-Tucker, Darrisaw, Mayfield, and Jenkins gone before 23. He also has Surtain, Horn, Farley, and Newsome gone before 23. So if we want to address either of two major weaknesses with 23, we would be left with the choice of Eichenberger/Cosmi/Leatherwood/Davis for a possible OG starter. On the other hand, Stokes would be a candidate to be a #1 cornerback starter. Of the OL's, my impression is that Leatherwood would be the best fit for our zone blocking line, and I think he'll be available at pick 34. Davis is the only other candidate that would not involve a projection from tackle to guard, and he reportedly is not a great fit for our new scheme. In this scenario, Stokes may just be the best player available that fits one of our severe needs, with the understanding that Davis and quite possibly Leatherwood will be there at 34. So while I can't help but agree that saving Wilson from Sam's fate is the first priority, I'm not sure that drafting someone like Eichenberger or Cosmi in the first round to play guard (or, alternately, moving Fant to guard, a position he has never played) will do Wilson more good than drafting Leatherwood or Davis at pick 34. Yes, I also was thinking that it would be nice to add a back like Gainwell in the mid rounds, and you're right somebody just too good to pass up might be there. If they like Guidry as a starter at nickle, they could well forego Molden at 66 for a RB. I could live with a receiving TE instead of Meinerz, with the proviso that we draft a guard like Kendrick Green with one of our later picks.
Thanks. As with your previous response, you make excellent, rational points as well. If Breer is right and 4 QBs go in the top 5, that means that 14 of the first 23 picks will be nothing but QBs, OGs/OTs and CBs. He could be right, but I'd be shocked if so, not only because he's rarely right, but also that would be crazy with all the great WRs, DL, Pitts and some decent quality Edge rushers around. The thing about waiting to #34 to take an OL is that one is risking that all of those OL you named could be gone by 34. Runs usually happen in the draft. If all those OL are gone before #23, then teams will panic and they'll start reaching for OL early. I also am not sure that I agree with the opinion that Davis wouldn't be a good fit in our offense. If I was the GM, I might just take Davis at #23 and not look back. The other issue is that if all those OL and CBs go before #23, some other great players will likely have dropped. If Breer is correct, imo the nine players at other positions who would be taken would be M. Parson, J. Chase, D. Smith, J. Waddle, K. Pitts, K. Toney, J. Owusu-Koramoah, one of Rousseau and J. Phillips (maybe both), and/or J. Oweh. If those are indeed the players that went by #23, then JD would probably go CB at #23, but it would be risky. Then again, they may really like Zaven Collins. At CB that would leave Asante Samuel Jr., Tyson Campbell, as the top CBs. I may be mistaken, but think Stokes is ranked lower, at least he is at CBS.com. Melifonwu is the next CB in the rankings I've seen. If one of those WRs or LBs dropped, JD could be tempted to take one of them. He might also be tempted to trade down a little if someone is looking to move up. Under those circumstances CB probably would be the best value and would fill a need. This is one of the reasons why I've disagreed with those who have said this is such a great draft for IOL. I don't see it that way at all. There are only a couple who are rated as 1st round picks, and many of them I don't think will be good fits in our blocking scheme. That's why it was risky to wait until the draft, and would be risky to wait until #34. JD may have no choice but to reach for an OG at #23 if he wants to get a player who can start and play at a high level immediately. I haven't watched video of Kendrick Green yet, but I was reading scouting reports on him last night, and he may not be a good fit for our blocking scheme. Following is what they said. The reports are contradictory. At any rate, they all seem to agree that he is raw and is going to need a lot of work. https://www.profootballnetwork.com/kendrick-green-nfl-draft-player-profile-illinois-offensive-guard/ Tony Pauline’s Kendrick Green Scouting Profile Positives: Versatile interior lineman who can be used at guard or center. Strong, keeps his feet moving, and blocks with a nasty attitude. Fires off the snap, quickly gets to the second level, and takes linebackers from the action. Gets movement run blocking, knocks defenders from their angles of attack with a violent hand punch, and works to finish off opponents. Sets with a wide base, blocks with good knee bend, and always looks for someone to hit. Negatives: Stiffness hurts his ability to finish blocks. Does not move well enough laterally for a zone-blocking scheme. Analysis: Green was productive and durable for Illinois at several positions on the offensive line. He comes with an upside and is a solid middle-round choice who would fit a power gap system. https://www.nfl.com/prospects/kendrick-green/32004752-4529-8269-4ea7-3aa53f8dbd0d This site appears to be contradictory Strengths Offers guard and center starting experience. Off the ball in a hurry, gaining lateral ground with ease. Impressive ability to reach and wall-off from a gap away. Accelerates through contact, creating wash-down momentum. Pushes down-block out of the gap. Short-area quickness allows for tighter schedule on combos. Play-switch energy and fire from snap to whistle. Above-average getting into space on screen blocks. Resets his hands in order to gather pass rusher in front of him. Reactive athleticism to make sudden cut-offs in pass pro. Weaknesses Too straight-legged up to second level. Inaccurate radar landing on pull and climb targets. Unable to neutralize power when heads up. Defenders are able to separate and play off his blocks. Shorter arms make block sustain a challenge. Struggled to dissect gaming fronts in 2019. Gets glued to twist action and misses incoming rusher. Overextends, allowing edge to soften. https://thedraftnetwork.com/articles/2021-nfl-draft-scouting-report--iol-kendrick-green PROSPECT SUMMARY – KENDRICK GREEN Illinois interior offensive lineman Kendrick Green projects favorably as a Day 3 target in the 2021 NFL Draft. Green, who came to the Illini program as a defensive tackle and transitioned to the offense ahead of the 2017 college season, finished his career with 33 consecutive starts at either guard or center for Illinois. Green has the lateral mobility and functional athleticism to develop and continue to work with at the pro level—his potential as a recent position swap should not be ignored. That said, Green is understandably rough around the edges with the finer points of strike placement, feel for scraping defenders, angles when climbing to the second level, and his footwork and base; there are too many reps in which Green finds himself on the ground. But viewing him through the scope of a player who is still new to the position, the flashes of leverage at the point of attack and mobility, particularly at center, make him a worthwhile flier later in the draft. Ideal Role: Developmental center. Scheme Fit: Wide/Outside-zone-heavy rushing offense. The bottom line is that we have to hope and pray that Vera-Tucker will fall, or Davis will fit or that one of the RTs will be able to make a smooth transition to OG and will be there at #23. If not, then we have to pray that Leatherwood will still be there at #34 or maybe take Creed Humphrey and play him at RG.
Thanks for the thoughtful analysis and prospect info. It will be interesting to see what JD does with pics 23 and 34. I do have some confidence that we'll come out of round 2 with at least Leatherwood, Davis, or (another possibility) Radunz.
Nice work. I like the first three picks, obviously they would have to fall and personally don't think Farley will be there. But I would go RB at #66 depending on who's available. Carter, Gainswell or Patterson might all be there.
5 OL were taken in the first 23 picks in 2020 5 OL were taken in the first 23 picks in 2019 6 OL were taken in the first 23 picks in 2018 Is it a big stretch if 6 go early this year? OT, QB, and CB are all high value positions but scarcity/abundance says CB is more valuable this year.
