Traditionally prospects are ranked from number down to how ever many players are in the draft and then based on that draft class projected to go in round 1-7. But I've come to ask myself over the years why teams seem to "reach" so much, or trade up for players of so called "lower value". And that got me thinking that maybe those players aren't reaches, per se, so much as a faulty system of grading players in terms of the actual draft as opposed to actual "value" based on rankings. Over time I've come up with a different way of grading players in terms of draft projections and personally I think it's more in line with what the teams use on draft day than what most draftniks typically use. First a little background on the system. Draftniks, and amature draftniks like myself, tend to think in terms of a player being worthy of a top 10 pick vs being worthy of a bottom of the first pick. And in the case of 1-10 that often works out, but mocks tend to fall apart after that point because in most draft classes there is usually a core of 5-10 players who stand head and shoulders above the rest of the draft. The system I've adoped is a lot more complex, and to be honest I've never fully implemented it past the first or second round, but I think provides a somewhat better model. It works on a partial basis that all first round picks when assigned to a team are essentially equal, the difference between the #1 pick and the #32 pick is simply the number of teams getting to choose before you. So here's the way my system currently breaks down, and I'd love feedback on it. There are basically three ratings for every player. First step is to determine who in most drafts would have 1st round talent, this number is almost never limited to a pool of 32 players, but rather in an average draft where they would be deemed worthy of. In a weak draft there may be only 10 players that get a 1st round grade but in a very top heavy draft there may be 40-50 players that get a 1st round grade. This makes the first rating and ranges from 1-8, 1 meaning a first round grade and 8 being probable free agent. The second step is to determine the players position grade, this comes in terms of the letters A to Z providing up to 26 different grade seperations for each round. Each of these have a sub rating based from the number 1 on up. There may be multiple players with an A, B, C...Z rating in a round. What the A-Z represents is drop off levels between talent. For example in this years Guard class there are basically 3 Guards who would normally grade out to be 1st round talent at the position, Warmack, Cooper and Jones (although Jones could also be considered a Center). In this case Warmack Stands head and shoudlers above the other two so there is a marked drop off in talent between the him and the other two so Warmack would be rated 1A as a Guard. Now, just for the sake of argument assume that Jones and Cooper are pretty close together talent wise they would both be ranked as 1B and then each would get a sub classification of 1B1 and 1B2. The letter grade in this case marks a substantial drop off in talent level. Assume there is a substantial talent drop off between Cooper and Jones, at that point one would be 1B the other would be 1C. This designation does not have to be sequential, if there is a very big drop off in talent between 1A and the second player that player might get a 1C instead of a 1B. In other words this second value determines the talent drop off at the position within a "Round" grade. I honestly think this is one thing teams consider when they "Reach" or trade up for a player that is then deemed a reach. If you desperately need a tackle and the first round talent drops from an A to a D but there are no C's in the draft you might trade up for one of the A or B tackles knowing there's a big drop off in talent after the last of the B's goes. Which is really the case with this years tackle group, there are 5 or 6 tackles that could go first round, but only 3 that at this time would earn a B or better grade at the postion. (actually I think in a standard draft only 4 tackles would earn a first round grade this year) That last designator is a Round grade. Again this is an A-Z grade. This is similar to the position grade but also ranks players against each other in terms of value. In this years draft there are maybe 6 players or so that would earn an A rating. maybe another 6 that earn a B, then quite a few at C, D etc. This ranking does take in to consderation the value of the position played, but it doesn't block truly exceptional players at undervalued positions from earning an A, but it does tend to knock them down a rung in the over all value. So in the end you wind up with a player ranking looking like 1B1-A (it gets a little more confusing if you rank a player at multiple positions in terms of positional value). Take Warmack for example, he'd grade out as a 1A-A, while Cooper might be a 1B1-C, he gets a C because guards are undervalued to other postions. This is an example and not fully thought out rankings of the players. But this is where the system becomes valuable, when doing a mock as it gives an easy to glance at value for each player left on the board, but it also gives you a reference as to how big the talent drop off is at a position, or overall ranking. If your looking at the boards and you need a Tackle but the A's and B's are gone and what's left is low ranking that would be close to a 2A You might trade down because there's not a big loss in positonal value. On the other hand you might trade up to get a player that will be gone by the time you draft because there is a big drop off at a position of need after that point. Maybe the system is too complex, but I think it's a better value estimator than many other systems....but then again it could just be an over thought out dumb idea on my part.
