A Breakdown of the Aaron Rodgers Situation

Discussion in 'National Football League' started by MaximusD163, May 7, 2021.

  1. MaximusD163

    MaximusD163 Well-Known Member

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  2. Brook!

    Brook! 2018 Friendliest Member Award Winner
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    Max. You see any chance him ending up with the Giants?
     
  3. Br4d

    Br4d 2018 Weeb Ewbank Award

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    He's probably going back to Green Bay, at least for this season.

    Unlike Favre he has a lot of prorated bonus money outstanding at this point. That means if he retires he has to cut Green Bay a huge check - something like $30M.

    This prevents the retiring and then showing up at TC method of forcing a trade which is what Favre did.

    I guess it is possible that somebody blows Green Bay away with a trade offer and they accept it. I'm guessing they are doing a lot of work on a Jordan Love transition right now to see if it is feasible for 2021. More likely they will make an agreement with Rodgers to play 2021 and then trade him in the off-season, thus giving Love another season of seasoning on the sidelines.
     
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  4. MaximusD163

    MaximusD163 Well-Known Member

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    If he went to the Giants, it would only be after this year… I doubt they are willing to give up on Daniel Jones at this point. I also doubt the Packers want to trade him within the conference, but if he stays in Green Bay this year the Giants have the draft capital to take a swing at him next year.
     
  5. MaximusD163

    MaximusD163 Well-Known Member

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    All of the financial stuff is in the video, they could trade him after June 1st if they want to move him.
     
  6. Br4d

    Br4d 2018 Weeb Ewbank Award

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    GB isn't particularly bound in this situation. The bindings are all on Aaron Rodgers side due to the guarantees he has already received in the form of bonuses.

    The question is whether or not it will ever make sense for him to give up the $30M this year to facilitate a move. In order for that to make sense for him he has to be getting $60M+ upfront from the acquiring team - which would put him roughly at status quo.

    It makes more sense for him to come back and play the year in GB and then leave in an agreed departure (not public knowledge) after the 2021 season. At that point the Packers might even agree to swallow some of the bonus they have already paid him.

    The thing to remember is that this is not just a cap issue on GB's side. It is a cash and cap issue.
     
  7. MaximusD163

    MaximusD163 Well-Known Member

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    Drafting Love in the first round last year shows that the Packers were financially prepared to move on from Rodgers this offseason. The only thing that has changed financially is the $6.8 million roster bonus that triggered earlier this off-season.

    I don’t think anyone who really knows the financial side of football thinks Rodgers will sit out or retire. But he can make enough of a headache that they move on from him.

    In my video I did say I thought the most likely outcome is that he stays for this year.
     
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  8. major33

    major33 Well-Known Member

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    I did not yet listen to your video nor will I pretend to know Rodgers situation better than you. I have been watching from the outside but not looking in-depth to understand what the Packers and Rodgers are thinking.

    You did just say that drafting Love shows that the Packers were prepared to move on this offseason. My question is why didn't they? If the stars were aligned to move on, why didn't they take the opportunity to do it before the draft when they could have received a lot of compensation due to many teams needing a QB? Is it maybe because the offers were weak or that Rodgers made it known he would only go to a certain team or two?

    I really don't understand what's going on with GB since to me it is stupid to keep your QB even though he is the franchise if he's going to be a pain in the ass. And we know he will be a huge pain in the ass because he can. If GB was in Super Bowl contention I could understand them wanting to keep the pain in the ass for 1 more season, but the moves they've made show no sense of urgency to compete for a championship & that includes not smoothing things over with Rodgers. To me, it seems like if they keep Rodgers it's a wasted season. The fans & his teammates will be pissed since they know he doesn't want to be there.

    Ok onto where he should go? Where do you think he ends up? One place that would be great is Las Vegas. However, nobody knows what that organization has been doing for the last 30 years but he would be great for the NFL and the city if he wound up there. Another suggestion would be a warm weather city. I can see him wanting out of GB at his age and going to someplace warmer. Maybe Miami if Tua doesn't work out? I don't know, maybe you have a better idea of what Rodgers is thinking, but it sure as hell isn't Green Bay unless this is strictly a money thing where he wants 50 million a year. But obviously he must know that GB would never pay him what he truly wants and thus, will force his exit that way.

    Are the GB fans done with him or are they siding with the team?
     
  9. Jonathan_Vilma

    Jonathan_Vilma Well-Known Member

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    Well I think Green Bay were overthinking the situation (similar to how they reacted with Favre) in anticipating that Rodgers would start to decline or remain flat. He's obviously still been great but his 2017-2019 production was down significantly from the three prior seasons.

    The Packers overplayed this entire thing though because he was 36 years old when they drafted Love and as we see with Brees and Brady - 40 is the new 36 with much more modern sports science and protection of passers unlike when Favre played and took a beating.

    BUT I will say that I do not think they've drafted as poorly as people think they have in terms of the win now mentality. The Packers simply don't operate like any other team. They draft players and at most positions they bring them along slowly so they're ready to be above average players in year two. They haven't changed this mentality much over the past decade.

    AJ Dillon didn't play until the end of the year, Kenny Clark was a rotational DT his rookie year, Rashaan Gary - rotation defensive end, Davante Adams - only 23/32 starts his first two years, limited action for Aaron Jones for two years, etc.

    Not the absolute rule, but they also only have this luxury because their carrier by a HOF quarterback and have a terribly difficult place to play in come December.

    Rodgers has plenty of offensive talent so I am so tired of hearing about them not getting another receiver or not having a first round receiver. Their biggest mistakes have been on the defensive side of the ball. They haven't found an adequate free safety who can play center field and protect leads via limiting big plays even though they keep drafting them. They never should've let Blake Martinez walk - that left a huge void in the middle of the field. And they've also neglected the edge position because they uncharacteristically signed the Smith's and Preston Smith has sucked. Gary wasn't really a true 3-4 edge in their defense, he was a strongside 4-3 end who might've ended up as a 3T in a 4-3 if he beefed up.

    If you look at all their playoff losses, their defenses usually get smacked. Sorry bit of unrelated 'analysis' there.

    Anyway, Rodgers isn't going anywhere. If he was he would've pushed this news out before the league year started and he reportedly didn't even want it to get out (I think). He's too deep in his career to sit out and has too much of an ego to retire rather than chase down another ring with them and get his Favre-Vikings, Brady-Buccaneers year(s) in.

    I do firmly believe this is his last year though.
     
  10. major33

    major33 Well-Known Member

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    Actually, I'm glad you took the time to explain GBs situation more clearly. Thank you! This helps explain some of their internal issues and how they go about building a team.

    GB overplayed their hand, which you said, & it's very clear right now. I can't believe that a player of his caliber, both parties allowed this to become public.

    So I guess GB is just going to continue building their team normally, and whatever happens with Rodgers happens. Or perhaps, maybe they believe there's enough there to be a championship contender this year. Otherwise, I don't really understand the point in keeping him this season if the cap thing works out.
     
  11. MaximusD163

    MaximusD163 Well-Known Member

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    I'll kind of make a couple of separate points, first on why they drafted Love, then why they don't want to move on from Rodgers yet:

    While Brees and Brady both played into 40, I would not say it's the new 36 until we see it happen with more than 2 or 3 players players. Of the QB's good enough to be starters into their late 30's recently, there have been:
    -Brett Favre, retired after Age 40/41 season.
    -Peyton Manning, retired after Age 38 season.
    -Eli Manning, retired after Age 38 season.
    -Philip Rivers, retired after Age 38 season.
    -Drew Brees, retired after Age 41 season.

    All of these players suffered a severe physical decline the final season or two before retiring.

    Still playing:
    -Tom Brady, just completed Age 43 season.
    -Ben Roethlisberger, just completed Age 38 season.

    Roethlisberger suffered a pretty clear physical decline last season. Brady is the only real outlier here, and don't forget that his arm looked shot after 2019. Many people thought he wouldn't be good on the Buccaneers before the season.

    When looking at this, you see why the Packers drafted Love, with the intention of moving on either before Rodgers' Age 37 season or Age 38 season... The timing was well reasoned.

    I believe that when they drafted Love they believed he would sit 1-2 years, and they would decide whether to move on from Rodgers after the 1st season based on how things went. Ultimately nothing has changed from the Packers viewpoint. Rodgers had a tremendous season, and so they are opting for the 2 year redshirt version of the plan. As @Jonathan_Vilma said, their general strategy is to give players time to grow into starting roles anyway. Plus, if Rodgers were to sustain an injury, the likelihood of a full recovery is not good for a player of his age.


    The main issue with this is that Rodgers is upset, and refuses to see things from the team view, and took it personally. This isn't really new if you follow his storyline a bit, as he has a history of taking things very personally. Unfortunately for him, when you look at Manning, Rivers, Manning, Roethlisberger, and even Brees, it couldn't be more clear that it's better to be too early than too late. If they really liked Jordan Love as a prospect, you don't pass on the opportunity. There is no guarantee that Rodgers wouldn't go from MVP 2020 to injured and never the same in 2021. So when I said they were prepared to move on financially from him after this season, I didn't mean they had absolutely decided on doing it, but more that they had accepted it as 1 of 2 possibilities.

    Rodgers seems to have thought that his 2020 season would have somehow given the Packers some kind of guarantee he can play into his 40's, and it's simply not the case.
     
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  12. NYJalltheway

    NYJalltheway Well-Known Member

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    I saw this thread and wanted to chime in, until I read this post. JV I would think you lived here too based on that. You're essentially spot on. Just wanted to say great post, and I can't really debate any of that.

    It's a shitty situation. I think fans are pretty split. Nobody wanted to take Love except my crazy cousin, and everyone knows wr was a need yes, but so was defense. GB could have gotten over TB this past year with a talent on D that wasn't on the bench not even dressed up. *Shrug*

    I don't see many people happy about going with Stokes round 1 this year which is baffling to me because GB has exactly one good corner. That's why they lost the NFC championship. King kept getting beat, including by Scotty Miller on that ridiculous bomb TD before the half. It was a necessary draft pick imo.

    As for me personally? I'm trying to think positive, and it will work out. However I understand both sides. Whatever happens happens. I've been spoiled with the local games since the 90s. I just want the Jets to finally be good so I can be proud to be a fan instead of having to explain to people why I like them.
     
  13. Jonathan_Vilma

    Jonathan_Vilma Well-Known Member

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    Yep you're spot on. Love is an intriguing prospect because his arm talent, similar to Rodgers arm as a prospect, is ridiculous.

    I'm sure they took him full well knowing that they wanted to stash him. Rodgers sat for three years as the Packers reworked a lot of things about his style, mechanics and footwork and I imagine they wanted to do the same with Love.

    I thought it was a bit of a reach on Love honestly and felt they could've waited. I'm also not sure who they felt they needed to jump to get him (even if it only costed them a fourth round pick) unless they had Intel that Tennessee was taking him or someone else was going to move up to get him (Minnesota, Indianapolis?).

    I didn't like the pick of Stokes because I don't like the player as a first round prospect. Georgia had an elite pass rush and those boys in the defensive backfield didn't need to cover for that long. But I do not have an issue with the position selection. You're right - King cost them as much as Rodgers or LaFleur did versus the Buccaneers.
     
  14. BrowningNagle

    BrowningNagle Well-Known Member

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    douchebag should retire already and become a game show host. it's his dream anyway
     
  15. stinkyB

    stinkyB 2009 Best Avatar Award Winner

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    I'll take "Pro Athlete with Zero fuks to Give" for $200.....
     
  16. KingRoach

    KingRoach Well-Known Member

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    Adams and who?
    Who is this talent you speak of?
    Would you trade the Jets top 4 receivers and TE for the Packers?
     
    #16 KingRoach, May 26, 2021
    Last edited: May 26, 2021
  17. Jonathan_Vilma

    Jonathan_Vilma Well-Known Member

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    Two good runningbacks, a tightend that caught eleven touchdowns, two All-Pro offensive lineman and a third in Elgton Jenkins who will be an All-Pro soon.

    Combine that with arguably the best receiver in football and you can live with Lazard and MVS as the #2/3. Not the best in the world, but he also makes enough money to have to cover weaknesses.

    Not all great quarterbacks have a ton of great offensive weapons all at once. And they do make some guys careers at times.
     
  18. BrowningNagle

    BrowningNagle Well-Known Member

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    What gets me about Rodgers is that he is bitching about them drafting Jordan Love, oh how awful.... When Rodgers himself was drafted by the Packers when they already had an all-pro QB!

    He wouldn't be where he is today if it wasn't for their decision to take a chance on him and develop him.

    Yet, when they give that same chance to someone else it upsets him. That's a selfish diva
     
  19. KingRoach

    KingRoach Well-Known Member

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    I appreciate how carefully you chose your words “offensive talent” as opposed to receivers.

    1 top wr
    1 serviceable TE (someone needs to catch the ball when Adams is covered).

    I notice other franchise give their QB as many weapons as possible. KC brought in Watkins (for better or worse), a stacked Buccs brought in AB. Cowboys paid Cooper and then drafted CeeDee.

    I know as a Jets fan were used to a shitty FO so not giving your best player as many weapons as possible seem in line with what we’re used to....


    Yes. The Packers sure made a gutsy call drafting the #1 (debatable #2) QB in the draft in the mid 20s /s.

    What I got from watching The Last Dance is the greatest athletes expect greatness from others. The greatest basketball player of all time decided to retire rather than play without his favorite coach... go ahead, call MJ a diva - I dare you.
     
  20. BrowningNagle

    BrowningNagle Well-Known Member

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    Rodgers is NO Jordan. Jordan won 6 titles, Rodgers 1. Hell in the last 10 years Rodgers has a losing record in the playoffs.

    You are also comparing a situation with player in his prime to a situation with a player who is 37 years old btw
     

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