This is an update for my 12 most costly draft prospects after the second 3rd of the season. I figure to do one after 12 games and at the end of the season to track their progress. Look for the "12 GAME UPDATE" for the current information and grade. Reminder, this is not a final grade or final evaluation of these picks or their careers. Its simply tracking how much value the most expensive players have provided so far during their rookie seasons. 1. Trevor Lawrence - Jacksonville Investment: Pick 1 The top pick in the draft was worth so much this season it impossible not to list Lawrence as the biggest investment. What they could have gotten in return for trading down, even multiple times, is astounding. They could have traded twice and still been in the top 12 getting a blue chip. Preseason - Lawrence had a decent preseason on a rudderless team. He looks like a pro, but he looks like a pro who is going to get creamed a lot. I'd worry he lasts the season. He has stayed healthy so far. SIX GAME UPDATE Record: 1-5 129 / 216 for 1465 yards 59.7 completion percent 7 TD 8 INT 2 Rushing TDs Rushing Yards - 121 Sacks - 10 TL looks as advertised before the draft. He is a solid QB who can make a lot of throws and move the chains. But he's in a bad situation with a very weak supporting cast and suspect coaching. I get the impression if TL went to a good team he'd be a budding star. So far he seems worth his draft investment, except the Jags weren't ready for a QB. There is a danger of injury or even regression in this system. But if he can survive this season and get help he could become a top QB. Investment Grade so far: B 12 GAME UPDATE Record: 2-10 247 / 426 for 2514 yards 58 completion percent 9 TD 10 INT 2 Rushing TDs Rushing Yards - 241 Sacks - 22 Not much has changed since week 6 for TL. In fact, its almost like his first 6 games stats were extended to the first 12. He clearly has some skills but he is in a very bad situation, and for that he gets some consideration. Still, its not a spectacular year so far for the massively expensive pick and even with 241 rushing yards his grade has to decline some. 12 Game Grade: C+ 2. Trey Lance - San Francisco Investment: Pick 3, (1) (1) (3) Amazingly, SF was able to make the third pick more expensive than the 2nd pick by adding two future firsts and a third. Perhaps the second pick could have fetched more but SF actually made the investment so I have to consider it a bigger investment. Considering they are in a win now position they were in a position to gamble more to get over the hump. But still, three firsts and a third for a one year starter? This pick makes me feel better about gambling on Zach. Preseason -Lance flashed but also looked raw on a talented roster. IMO he isn't ready to start, which makes the investment in him even more risky. Stayed healthy so far. SIX GAME UPDATE Record: 0-1 25 / 48 for 354 yards 52.1 completion percent 3 TD 1 INT 1 Rushing TD 133 Rushing yards Sacks - 3 Though Lance's stats might look decent for a one game starter, they are a little deceiving. He got half of his stats coming off the bench in situational play. His one start was much to run heavy and he frequently looked lost in the passing game. He is very raw looking and probably not ready to be starting. Still a small sample size. This is a trial by fire, but at least he is in a talented offense. Investment Grade so far: D+ 12 GAME UPDATE Record: 0-1 25 / 48 for 354 yards 52.1 completion percent 3 TD 1 INT 1 Rushing TD 137 Rushing yards Sacks - 3 4 Rushing yards. That is all Lance had added to his stats since week 6. He's riding the pine, hopefully for the 49ers he's learning, but he is otherwise MIA. For the laughable price SF paid his grade so far this season has to decline even more. There is just no production. 12 Game Grade: D 3. Zach Wilson - New York Jets Investment: Pick 2 Our pick was very valuable and instead of swapping for more rebuild capital we went all in on a QB. We'd certainly have a better roster now (minus QB) and more capital in the future. It is a large risk for a rebuilding team. Preseason -Wilson had a tremendous preseason. He looks ready to start on opening day. The only knock was he hasn't faced the first string yet. Obviously we will be tracking him to closest of all of them. I cant stress enough how much we need this investment to pay off. Stayed healthy so far. FIVE GAME UPDATE Record: 1-4 98 / 171 for 1117 yards 57.3 completion percent 4 TD 9 INT 0 Rushing TDs 22 Rushing yards Sacks - 18 If you want the story of Zach just look at the Jets forum. One thing that sticks out is he has been sacked more than any other rookie QB along with Fields. Like TL he has is in a position that increases his chances of injury and regression with the lack of support up front. The Atlanta game did have a feel that he regressed and it could be argued we weren't ready for a top 3 QB. But there is potential lurking in there somewhere, if we can find a way to exploit it. Investment Grade so far: C 12 GAME UPDATE Record: 2-6 141 / 243 for 1539 yards 58 completion percent 6 TD 11 INT 2 Rushing TDs 25 Rushing yards Sacks - 25 As usual we all know about Zach. Like TL his stats are like extending his first evaluation stats forward with little improvement. The big difference being that he added two rushing TDs totaling 4 yards and his INT ratio is down slightly. However, he missed 3 1/2 games since the last update so his grade has to go down. 12 GAME GRADE: C- 4. Kyle Pitts - Atlanta Investment: Pick 4 While there were a lot of expensive trades this draft I gotta keep Pitts at #4 solely on the fact that he is now the highest drafted TE in history. I know he was highly rated coming out but pick 4 on a TE is a huge gamble. This is a hybrid TE that may end up being more of a WR than TE. I'm very interested to see how this plays out over the year. Preseason - Pitts only played one game and had one catch for 27 yards. But during that catch he showed some of his YAC ability. Stayed healthy so far. 5 GAME UPDATE Targets - 36 Receptions - 24 Yards - 308 Average - 12.8 TDs - 1 Pitts was having a very average season until he played us and broke out for 119 yards and his only TD. If he continues trending that direction his grade can only go up. He has shown great potential to be an impact player. But he has to do it against more than just us. Investment Grade so far: C- 12 GAME UPDATE Targets - 82 Receptions - 49 Yards - 709 Average - 14.5 TDs - 1 I said after 6 games Pitts was going to have to perform against more than just the Jets and he has. The last six games he has broken out and become Atlanta's leading receiver. TDs haven't matched his production but at 709 yards he stands a good chance at breaking 1000 as a rookie. He is now a genuine weapon and his grade is shooting up. 12 Game Grade: A- 5. Jaylen Waddle - Miami Investment: Pick 6 (1) Miami used pick 6 and a future first to take a WR. This offseason they have really tried to add playmakers to their offense and Waddle is an expensive investment. Waddle does have the best acceleration you will ever see in a player. Preseason -He had a strong preseason if not stellar. Made several catches to keep the chains moving. But nothing breakout. He has stayed healthy. 6 GAME UPDATE Targets - 49 Receptions - 37 Yards - 301 Average - 8.1 TDs - 3 So far Waddle hasn't been the electric playmaker the phins were hoping for. Part of this is poor QB play between both Tua and Brissett, and part is the system he is in. But I think they still expected more at this point, especially with Fuller out. Waddle is the second leading receiver on the phins behind their TE. Has the most catches of any rookie WR. He is dangerous in the red zone and shows potential to break out at some point. Investment Grade so far: C 12 GAME UPDATE Targets - 114 Receptions - 86 Yards - 849 Average - 9.9 TDs - 4 Waddle is improving every week and is now the dolphin's leading receiver recording a massive 114 targets and a whopping 849 yards. He looks to easily become a 1000 yard receiver this season. While his YPC is notably lower than the other rookies he has been a clutch go to guy to move the chains. Again, a rookie leading his team and threatening to break a thousand yards is a boom pick and his grade shoots up. 12 Game Grade: A 6. Ja'Marr Chase - Cincinnati Investment: Pick 5 This pick had a lot of value and Cinn stuck with Chase. This makes sense because both Burrow and Chase had their best college season together. Preseason -Chase seriously underwhelmed in preseason. In two games he was targeted 5 times, with 4 drops. The one catch he made was a screen pass. This could be a reflection of rust from opting out. The Bengals are looking for Chase to step up once the regular season starts. SIX GAME UPDATE Targets - 41 Receptions - 27 Yards - 553 Average - 20.5 TDs - 5 Chase has been sensational and is the early OROY candidate. He is helped by the system and QB, but he is delivering the goods when needed. Nearly all of his catches have been downfield and he still continues to get open. So far he is a legit weapon and is the Bengals leading receiver. Investment Grade so far: A+ 12 GAME UPDATE Targets - 90 Receptions - 55 Yards - 958 Average - 17.4 TDs - 8 Chase has continued his huge rookie campaign. His production has dropped off a little, and he is second in the league in drops, but is still the leading WR on his team and will easily be a 1000 yard receiver as a rookie. Add in 8 TDs and he could miss the rest of the season and still be a A+ pick this season. Still a strong candidate for OROY. 12 Game Grade: A+
7. Penei Sewell - Detroit Investment: Pick 7 Pick 7 still had a lot of value and Detroit invested it in Sewell. He went lower than some expected so the gamble side of this is not so large. Preseason -Sewell has struggled so far, allowing multiple sacks and pressures against the Bills. Another opt out player struggling in preseason. PFF rated his preseason performance as Detroit's 3rd worst linemen, ahead off two guys that got cut. He be lining up across from Nick Bosa on Sunday so clearly he is going to need to improve fast. 6 GAME UPDATE Starts - 6 Penalties - 5 Sacks - QB hits - I cant load my stats page for OL so I don't have advanced stats. Sewell has played every snap so far at LT and done a decent job for the 7th pick. Investment Grade so far: B- 12 GAME UPDATE Starts - 12 Penalties - 5 Sacks - QB hits - I don't have the advanced stats for linemen but Sewell is still starting every game and hasn't committed a penalty in the last 6 games. His grade improves some. 12 Game Grade: B 8. Justin Fields - Chicago Investment: Pick 11 and 164 (1) (5) Fields ends up costing Chicago two firsts and two lower round picks. Went lower than expected and not in the top 10, but still a large investment at 2 firsts a fourth and a fifth. Preseason -Fields looked raw but confident. Both his strength of mobility and weakness in reads were on display. Needs development and probably shouldn't be starting next Sunday. Stayed healthy. SIX GAME UPDATE Record: 2-2 53 / 99 for 632 yards 53.5 completion percent 2 TD 3 INT 1 Rushing TD 102 Rushing yards Sacks - 18 In fewer starts Fields has been sacked as many times as Wilson. Still looks raw but not as lost as Trey Lance. There are signs of potential and its still a question of whether he can put it all together and break out. Investment grade so far: C 12 GAME UPDATE Record: 2-6 115 / 198 for 1361 yards 58.1 completion percent 4 TD 8 INT 2 Rushing TDs 311 Rushing yards Sacks - 31 Fields has been up and mostly down. He improved his completion percentage but only added 2 TDs to 5 INTs and has suffered a whopping 31 sacks. Does have over 300 rushing yards but went 0-4 before missing two games this period, so his grade has to fall. 12 Game Grade: C- 9. Jaycee Horn - Carolina Investment: Pick 8 The top 12 picks were so valuable in the last draft and the Panthers stuck with Horn. Perhaps the biggest gamble was taking him ahead of Patrick Surtain. Will that turn out to be the right move? Also, the Panthers did not use this pick to upgrade an already shaky o-line. Preseason -Horn was stellar this preseason being targeted 5 times with 5 PDs. He has the early look of being a future lockdown corner. Stayed healthy. SIX GAME UPDATE Targets - 7 Completions Allowed - 2 Passes Defended - 1 INTs - 1 TDs allowed - 1 Tackles - 5 Horn has missed 3 games due to injury but has played solid during his starts. Its a small data set to judge and his lack of playtime hurts his grade. He is the only player in the top 12 to miss time due to injury. Investment Grade so far: C 12 GAME UPDATE Targets - 7 Completions Allowed - 2 Passes Defended - 1 INTs - 1 TDs allowed - 1 Tackles - 5 Horn has been injured since week 3 an still hasn't returned. Looks to return either this week or next week. Could very likely still be a shutdown corner but missing so much time this period his grade falls considerably. 12 Game Grade: D 10. Devonta Smith - Philadelphia Investment: Pick 10 & 84 The Heisman winner cost the Eagles pick 10 and their third. The gamble with Smith was never about talent and always about his size. We'll see if how it plays out. Preseason -Not a great preseason. Sprained knee forced him to see limited action in camp. Two catches on 4 targets in his lone game, with two drops. The upside was he got off the line clean and beat the coverage every target. Can he be covered one on one and stay healthy? Expected to start as the #1 opening day. SIX GAME UPDATE Targets - 44 Receptions - 27 Yards - 345 Average - 12.8 TDs - 1 Smith has been a solid player so far. Like Waddle he is hampered by poor QBing and a puzzling offensive scheme. Has had 3 TDs called back for penalties but is the Eagles leading receiver. There has been some adjustments required for his size and he has gotten pushed around more than most. He is clearly growing and is poised to break out at some point. Investment Grade so far: B- 12 GAME UPDATE Targets - 82 Receptions - 50 Yards - 701 Average - 14 TDs - 4 Smith has continued progressing in a run heavy offense. While his stats are basically extended from the first evaluation his TDs are up as is his YPC. Has a decent chance to record a 1000 yard season as a rookie. Is the leading receiver on the team, nearly matching all other Eagles wide receivers output combined, so his grade shots up. 12 Game Grade: A- 11. Alijah Vera-Tucker - New York Jets Investment: Pick 14, 66, & 86 Jets were thin at guard and spent three picks to land a top prospect. Tucker was viewed as the best guard in a lean guard draft. Quite a lot of capital spent on a non blue chip prospect. We are gambling Tucker becomes a solid starter at RG for many years to come. Preseason -Did not play any preseason snaps due to injured pectoral muscle. Showed some talent in limited camp work. Concern with another opt out player who has now missed most of camp will be starting opening day. Will he have rust? He is a player to watch week 1. FIVE GAME UPDATE Starts - 5 Penalties - 2 Sacks - 2 QB hits - Like Sewell I don't have access to the advanced stats, but we all know the story. Has started all 12 games and played every snap. Has had improved last two games. Investment Grade so far: B 12 GAME UPDATE Starts - 5 Penalties - 5 Sacks - QB hits - Like Sewell I don't have access to the advanced stats, but we all know the story. Has started all 12 games and played every snap. Has had a few more penalties but he continues to be solid so his grade improves. 12 Game Grade: B+ 12. Patrick Surtain II - Denver Investment: Pick 9 Surtain went top 10 and IMO is the least risky pick on this list. He was rated highly and was the seemingly best CB pick available. Preseason -Stellar. Gave up 1 catch in 6 targets and had a pick 6. Like Horn, he looks to be a potential lockdown corner and potential DROY. SIX GAME UPDATE Targets - 36 Completions allowed - 21 Passes Defended - 4 INTs - 1 TDs allowed - 1 TDs scored - 1 Tackles - 22 Surtain has been challenged a lot so far and has mostly performed as a high level. He is also averaging nearly 4 tackles a game which is among the league leaders for CBs. Has a pick six and would be a strong candidate for DROY. Investment Grade so far: B+ 12 GAME UPDATE Targets - 58 Completions allowed - 36 Passes Defended - 12 INTs - 4 TDs allowed - 3 TDs scored - 1 Tackles - 38 Surtain continues to develop into a shutdown corner. He now has 4 INTs and 12 PDs, and would be a strong candidate for DROY if not for Parsons down in Dallas (who would have been 13 on this list). As the cheapest pick on this list he has been a boom pick and his grade improves this period. 12 Game Grade: A- ------------------------------------------ So that's the 2/3rds update for the costly rooks. The pattern has been the QBs trending down and the WRs trending massively upward. After all the QB talk last draft, so far it appears it will be remembered as one of the great WR drafts of all time. Not just the expensive guys but others like Toney, Marshall, and Moore have all shown to be valuable play makers for their teams. I'll be back with the final grades at seasons end. Go Jets!
I’m not sure how you can grade Lawrence & Wilson differently. They’ve both been pretty bad. Sewell has given up 5 sacks and been moved to right tackle so hardly a B rating I’d imagine. But I haven’t personally watched closely so I can’t say that for sure.
