2021 Draft Strategy

Discussion in 'Draft' started by MaximusD163, Jul 31, 2020.

  1. MaximusD163

    MaximusD163 Well-Known Member

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    After giving up a 7 for Alex Lewis last year Douglas had his own 1-6. He gained an extra 3+6 by moving Derron Lee and and Leonard Williams. From these 8 picks, he went into the draft, and came away with 9 selected players as well as an veteran via trade.

    Selections
    1 (NYJ): OT
    2 (NYJ): WR
    3 (NYG): S
    3 (NYJ): Edge
    4 (NYJ): RB
    4 (NE): QB
    4 (NE): OG
    5 (NYJ): CB
    6 (NYJ): P

    Trades
    6 (KC): CB

    By my count, the Jets now have 11 picks in the 2021 Draft. All 7 of their own, and 4 more from the Seahawks, Giants, and Patriots.

    1 (NYJ)
    1 (SEA)
    2 (NYJ)
    3 (NYJ)
    3 (SEA)
    4 (NYJ)
    5 (NYG)
    5 (NYJ)
    6 (NYJ)
    6 (NE)
    7 (NYJ)

    Using the BPA at a position of need framework, along with my round by positional valuation, and Douglas’ track record for garnering picks through trade downs, my preferred strategy would be be as follows-

    1 (NYJ): Edge/CB
    1 (SEA): CB/Edge/C/OT
    2 (NYJ): WR/RB/C
    3 (NYJ): RB/WR/IOL
    3 (SEA): RB/WR/IOL/LB
    4 (NYJ): TE/RB/IOL
    5 (NYG): ST/BU/Trade Up/Flier
    5 (NYJ): ST/BU/Trade Up/Flier
    6 (NYJ): ST/BU/Trade Up/Flier
    6 (NE): ST/BU/Trade Up/Flier
    7 (NYJ): ST/BU/Trade Up/Flier

    My ideal scenario is to come out of round 1 with an Edge and a CB, however a great OT prospect or C prospect that falls could be a nice consolation prize. I would really be excited about a trade down that brings an additional 3rd round pick.

    For round 2, I’d love to get another talented WR, but I could also be ok with an elite RB prospect like Travis Etienne if he fell. If the Jets managed to get Edge and CB in round 1, and there was a fringe round 1 C available in round 2, that would be nice. A trade down in this round also works.

    Depending on what the Jets grabbed in the first two rounds, WR and RB are a priority. If one is already selected, I’d like the other in round 3, and I’d also be in the market for a talented ILB or a OG prospect who can also play C at times.

    In round 4, RB is ok if it didn’t make sense earlier. I’m also looking for a good TE prospect here. OG could work also if there is a less versatile mauler and IOL hasn’t been addressed.

    These remaining 5 picks can be used on backups, fliers, special teams, or used to move up for a highly desired player.

    So how would I really want this draft to look best case scenario?
    One of the first 3 picks used to trade down to get an extra 3. Then, these selections.

    1. Edge
    1. CB
    2. WR
    3. RB
    3. IOL
    3. LB
    4. TE

    5,5,6,6,7–> At least 3 more players who will be backups and special teams players.

    Of course any of this could change if a player breaks out unexpectedly in the 2020 season.

    Thoughts??
     
  2. HerndonFan

    HerndonFan 2018 ROTY Poster Award Winner

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    This is a well thought out plan and I respect it. But, IMO, WR has to be a higher priority than CB and Edge. The group we have no is still weak and mostly unproven. Sam needs weapons who he can grow with. While it's possible to get good WR's after round 1, there are two I believe will make an impact on day 1 in the NFL. Ja'Marr Chase and DeVonta Smith, if one of them is available when we first pick in round 1, I'm taking him.
     
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  3. MaximusD163

    MaximusD163 Well-Known Member

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    I’ve done some research and the number of day 2 WR’s who have produced year 1 have skyrocketed in the past 2 years. I believe this is largely due to rule changes on pass interference, but also to college programs finally catching up a bit and running more passing offenses.

    Day 2 CB’s, not so much. Same with Edge.
     
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  4. HerndonFan

    HerndonFan 2018 ROTY Poster Award Winner

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    We have a ton of CB's to sort through. As for Edge, there's Rousseau who looks like a blue chip prospect. I'd be open to taking him if he's available, but my preference is a WR. Chase and Smith don't have the flaws that 1st round busts at the position do(lack of speed, inability to get separation, off the field troubles, etc....).
     
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  5. MaximusD163

    MaximusD163 Well-Known Member

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    We have a bunch of backup level CB’s. Either Bryce Hall or Blessuan Austin might be #2 quality. Still no number one guy.
     
  6. HerndonFan

    HerndonFan 2018 ROTY Poster Award Winner

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    Not disagreeing with your assessment, but upgrading the WR group is the bigger priority to me. I'm not sold on Perriman, Smith, Doctson, and Mims will need a year or two to develop into a complete receiver. The UDFA's could become something, but they are UDFA's for a reason.
     
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  7. boozer32

    boozer32 Well-Known Member

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    Maybe one of the two players they got in the draft will be that edge player. We are going right back into the Maccagnan era of drafting defense again. We just cut Enunwa and have no idea how our current crop of WR are.We go an old Frank Gore and the always sketchy Leveon Bell.
     
  8. J-Raw24

    J-Raw24 Well-Known Member

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    I think the number 1 target needs to be edge. There is no question. Edge impacts the game more than anything beside qb. After that I think cb and wr both should be on the list. If a wr falls take it and get a cb in round 2. But edge is by far the most needed of the 3.
     
  9. MaximusD163

    MaximusD163 Well-Known Member

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    Well there is the benefit of playing the season between now and the draft. Some questions will be answered. We’ll know the offensive skill positions will look like by then.
     
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  10. MaximusD163

    MaximusD163 Well-Known Member

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    Well you may have it as you number 1 priority, but just look at the draft last year as an example. What if Chase Young is off the board but Okudah is available, and you are the Jets with 2 picks? I would take Okudah and try and hit Edge with the second 1st rounder. Okudah was a way better prospect than any Edge besides Young, that’s why Okudah went 3rd and the next Edge went at 20.

    With huge differences in value you have to be smart.
     
  11. J-Raw24

    J-Raw24 Well-Known Member

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    I totally agree. Same could be said for wr. . If there is a big drop off in talent from the best available wr and the next cb or edge, you take the receiver or trade. But that said if you have and edge prospect that you value around the same level of either of the other you take the edge. Edge effects the game more. It really just depends what is available. Edge should be the #1 option though.
     
  12. Darnasty

    Darnasty Well-Known Member

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    I’d love to be able to get a top WR prospect & top edge prospect in the 1st rd next year. I also wouldn’t complain if one of those 1sts was used on Etienne.
     
  13. MaximusD163

    MaximusD163 Well-Known Member

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    I agree, this will be such an interesting season. I will happy if the Jets look good and win a bunch of games. But honestly, I’ll be just as happy if Darnold and the offense looks great but a terrible defense causes us to lose a bunch of games.

    That would mean a high pick with a lot of optimism. We already know what Greg Williams can do with the defense when the talent is replenished.
     
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  14. MaximusD163

    MaximusD163 Well-Known Member

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    The more I think about it, the more I think I would try and trade Mosley after this season. His low cap hit might entice a team to give up a 3rd or 4th for him, and he will be unmovable the year after.

    I do not want to pay him $16 million in 2022.
     
  15. NCJetsfan

    NCJetsfan Well-Known Member

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    Nice post, until where you prioritize the draft picks being used. Then it runs off the rails imo. As I stated to a poster in another thread, I don't think we can say at this time where the picks should be used. Too much hinges on this season and how Fant or Edoga handle RT; how Van Roten and Lewis handle OG; how Mims and Perriman play; whether they are able to generate a pass rush from Q. Williams, Zuniga, Jenkins, Basham; and maybe Huff; how Desir, Austin, Wilson and Hall play; and if JD isn't happy with Mosley and doesn't re-sign Williamson. If there's a topflight ILB who is somewhat close to Isaiah Simmons' level of play, JD could go in that direction. If Sam has a bad year (I don't think he will), JD could even decide to go QB.. He could decide to trade up for Rousseau. Any number of things could happen this season both with the Jets and with college prospects that could totally cause JD to alter his plans.

    That said with all things equal, I see nothing ideal about JD using both 1st round picks on D. In fact, I would not be happy at all if he did that. The NFL is an offensive league and with the lack of skilled playmakers on the Jets' offense, if he went Edge, CB, and IOL with his first three picks, I would be VERY unhappy, and would probably want him fired because I would realize that he doesn't know jack shit about helping a young QB develop or building a winning team in today's NFL. Thankfully, I don't think he would do that. Too many 1st round picks have been used on D already, and the D is still pretty far ahead of the offense. The offense needs more help than the D. If anything, JD should use the two 1st round picks on a WR and RT, or if Herndon doesn't bounce back to the level of play from his rookie season, maybe a WR and a TE. I think it more likely that he'll use one on either an Edge or CB and the other on a WR or RT.

    I think there's a very good chance that Mims develops into a #1 WR. At worst he will be a very good #2. Still, we need to give Sam all the weapons and help we can. Perriman may not even be back in 2021, so one of the 1st round picks should almost certainly be used on a WR unless both Mims and Perriman have breakout seasons, and even then another team may be willing to give Perriman more than the Jets are. In addition, more than likely, JD will be looking to add his starting RB in the draft next year. Even if Bell is back, I would still expect that a RB be taken in no lower than the 3rd round, because I see Perine as being no more as a backup and role player, and Bell will be 29 next season. Waiting until the 4th round to take one would not be wise imo. Assuming that all of JD's draft picks develop into at least solid contributors, I think a much more realistic and reasonable use of the draft picks would be as follows:

    1. WR
    1. Edge
    2. RB*
    3. IOL*
    3. CB*
    3. LB
    4. TE


    * = these picks could be switched
     
    #15 NCJetsfan, Aug 6, 2020 at 1:47 AM
    Last edited: Aug 6, 2020 at 2:15 AM
  16. NCJetsfan

    NCJetsfan Well-Known Member

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    That doesn't matter imo. WR is a much bigger need than CB. A CB isn't going to help Sam develop and succeed.
     
  17. NCJetsfan

    NCJetsfan Well-Known Member

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    I disagree. The biggest need still has to be helping Sam develop. An edge or CB is not going to do that. Sam needs reliable targets to grow with. Smart GMs don't saddle their young prospective FQBs with mediocre skill position players. The NFL is an offensive league. There's no way WR shouldn't be the #1 priority.
     
  18. NCJetsfan

    NCJetsfan Well-Known Member

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    Teams that play Zone pass defense don't need a true #1 CB, and we've already seen that having a stud #1 CB doesn't get you anywhere. Offense and pass rush are what wins games, not CBs. Taking a CB with your first 1st round draft pick when you have mediocre skill position players on offense, a still questionable OL, and no pass rush is not being smart.
     
  19. NCJetsfan

    NCJetsfan Well-Known Member

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    I think the offense and Sam should look appreciably better, but I don't think it realistic that they will look great. There is still too little talent at the play-making positions on offense.
     
  20. NCJetsfan

    NCJetsfan Well-Known Member

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    Now this I totally agree with. I no longer want Mosley on this team. I was never for giving him that huge contract to sign with the Jets anyway, but after it was done, I hoped for the best and rooted for him. Now, I just want him gone like Adams.
     

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