I'm certainly no expert, but with the 2015 salary cap likely increasing to between $138-141 million next season (from ~$133 million this season), I think it warrants a discussion. First of all, take a look at this: http://overthecap.com/salary-cap/new-york-jets This year (2014), we spent $118,747,686. In 2015 (before making any additional moves), we are only on the books for $98,584,320. The amount of dead money from 2014 is $18,694,156 (largely due to Cromartie, Sanchez and Holmes.) In 2015 our dead money will be just $1,572,531 (with Stephen Hill contributing the highest amount at just under $0.5 million). The 2015 dead money can, of course, rise if we make any cuts. Cutting Chris Johnson, for example, will increase our dead money by $1.75 million, but overall it would save us $3.5 million in cap space. Cutting Calvin Pace only increases dead money by $125,000 but saves us over $2 million. Our free agents next year: David Harris, Michael Vick, Willie Colon, Kyle Wilson, Dawan Landry, Nick Bellore, Benjamin Ijalana, Phillip Adams, Leger Douzable, Kenrick Ellis, Greg Salas, Bilal Powell, Matt Simms, Damon Harrison, and Jaiquawn Jarrett. (Along with a few others who won't get much money anyway). In conclusion, our cap situation is looking pretty damn good. The question, now, becomes who should we re-sign, who should we cut, and who should we sign in free agency?
Resign Snacks. Resign either CJ or Powell, but not both. I would let Kenrick Ellis go because TJ Barnes seems to be coming along well enough to hold down the backup DT spot. Would resign Douzable on a budget deal if he's willing, he's a good backup player. Either let Harris go or resign him on a budget deal to serve as a mentor. Probably let Vick go. Colon and Wilson gooooone. Landry and Salas gone too, need to move Pryor into SS and try out Evans/Enunwa at WR. Keep Bellore for special teams. Jarrett probably gone, he hasn't done much since Pittsburgh game. I would rather not clog up the team with too many veterans, since we are rebuilding. Let the young guys play and compete, see who shines.
There's like 50 threads about this and no one can answer these questions until we know who our GM and head coach will be. It will be an exciting offseason.
- I think David Harris should be brought back on maybe a 3-year deal. - Douzable has been an absolute bargain and should be re-upped for a couple years at less than 2 million. - I'd bring back Powell at a similar rate if he even wants to come back. - Slap a first-round tender on Damon Harrison and maybe an original tender on Jarrett if he performs at least somewhat well in the final three games. - Wouldn't mind Phillip Adams, Greg Salas, Nick Bellore and maybe even Matt Simms on minimum deals to compete for spots next year - Very limited interest in resigning Vick, Colon, Wilson, Landry - There's an abundance of talent at NT, so Ellis is expendable and could be a bargain for a team seeking a NT in free agency. - All I know about Ben Ijalana is that he was a 2nd round draft pick a few years ago... A mystery to me other than that. A lot more can potentially be saved on cutting: - Chris Johnson (3.5M). The team might opt to get younger and cheaper at RB behind Ivory with Powell, Daryl Richardson and I'd like to see an earlier/mid round draft pick to compliment Ivory if Johnson is cut - Jeff Cumberland (1.9M). Seems like a lot of money for someone who hasn't played well at all; PFF rates him as one of the worst few TEs. - Percy Harvin (10.5). This will be interesting, but given his injury history (and current one?), somewhat questionable fit on the outside (though he's shown flashes here that he can play there), and off-the-field concerns, he should only be retained if he takes a very cap-friendly restructure. Right now, I might prefer to cut ties with him and go with Amari Cooper since we don't have a great shot to land Mariota anyway. - Calvin Pace (2.1M). Been a good player on this team for a long time, but he's really up there in age and Jason Babin is playing quite well. But as the previous poster and many others have said, a lot of this depends on the new regime and the system that's being run. For these comments I'm assuming they stick with the 3-4
Harrison is the only must resign. Since he's an RFA it shouldnt be an issue and Id assume the team will put a very high draft pick tender on him anyways. Douzable and Ellis are guys that would be nice to have back but they arent must haves. Its going to be a lot easier to shore up the oline and secondary in free agency then it will be to sign playmakers. So to me Bryon Maxwell and Mike Iupati are two guys that would be huge upgrades.
I wanted to put all of the numbers on one thread so we can discuss everything we know openly. Obviously nothing will happen until we get a new HC and/or GM. But any reasonable GM will make some of the same decisions based on talent and cost. Football is, after all, a numbers game. If we can manage our salary cap well and get the most out of our players while minimizing costs, we will become a contender sooner rather than later.
I think it would be foolish to let Harvin go instead of restructuring him considering he burned like $9 mil off this year's cap that we could have rolled over. If we cut him then we literally lost that rollover money for no reason since his presence this year was meaningless.
Assuming Idzik is our GM next year, we are not going to be acting like we are in a rebuilding mode. Coming off a 2 or 3 win season most likely, the Jets, are going to have to start to win. This isn't Major League Baseball where you knock it down, retool your farm system for the next 4-5 years and than compete. Sure the Jets need a new QB and Head Coach but that doesn't mean this team shouldnt be capable of competing for a playoff spot. They have 3 possibly even 4 O-Lineman that will be here next here, if they let Harvin walk it has to be because they brought in somebody even better, which gives the Jets 3 receivers, a good young TE, and some solid RB's. The offense is there for a rookie QB to come in and be successful, or for a vet to come in and do a good job. The defense has some real good young building blocks all across it, obviously the D-Line is stacked. Davis is a player. Coples is solid, it will be a make or break year for Milliner. Realistically this team should be looking to acquire 2 veteran corners, another Guard and possibly tackle, and a vet QB. That can all happen in one off season. The expectations for the Jets next year shouldn't be "another year in rebuild mode". Expectations should be to compete, especially if they go out and make and acquire a top tier talent in the draft and or HC.
I agree, so long as we don't overpay in free agency (which Idzik doesn't do..to a fault) or sacrifice our future with back-end contracts (like Tanny was prone to doing). Definitely agree with acquiring a starting guard, a starting corner, and a vet Qb who will start week 1 as (hopefully) Mariota sits and learns. At this point I don't think we're playing for 2015... 2016 is the earliest we can truly compete IMO, but our easy schedule next year means we can make the playoffs if we play this off-season right.
Agreed, i'm not saying we should be a 12+ win team but if our schedule is light we should be able to contend for a WC spot. They have to go out and pay a guard to help anchor the line, and a CB to help solidify the secondary, along with getting another guy who can come in and start as insurance for both Milliner and McDougle. Obviously the QB position has to be addressed as well. But my main point is, there is talent on this team. On both sides of the ball. Sometimes a record can make a team look a lot further off than what they really are. The Jets problem is that they are extremely weak at 2 of the most important positions in todays NFL game. QB and CB. The QB position goes without really needing to be addressed. Harvin, and Decker can play and play well, Kerley can play, Amaro can get open. Ivory is a battering ram. The offensive line isn't terrible. The problem with the offense starts with the QB position being a total mess. Once we address that, everything else generally falls into place on that side of the ball.
Resign Harris to serve as a mentor?He has 99 tackles (leads team) thru 13 games plus 3 sacks he's only 30 .Id resign him to a two year deal ,the guy is an important player
its inevitably gonna be a rebuild year, we'll have new coaches and it'll take the team time to gel. we shouldn't try to blow our load too early and go all in for 2015. if we're lucky we can have a comeback like KC and PHI did in 2013, but really we should be minding our future more than our present, build a staff we can work with for 3 years, not one that only works for one. we'll just screw ourselves if we try another passive aggressive effort to win when we're not ready. think rebuild, let competing for a trophy be gravy. these two thoughts have loads of middle ground admittedly, a vet CB is jointly in vague with both concepts for instance, a vet QB (of which there is no obvious easy answer in this market) is a pretty big need.
Boy, considering we are talking about the NY Jets here I smell a bit of insane optimism. I would think you can kiss Powell goodbye. Why would he want to stay? The team has undervalued and underutilized him his entire time here. 2015? 2016? Try a few more years beyond before we will compete. We are dead last in our own division and that is 6 losses right there...what is this easy schedule everyone is speaking of? Depends, also, upon which division we get from the NFC. Of course it is widely recognized that it takes a minimum of 3 years to compete with a new QB. Probably more like 4 or 5 considering it's the Jets. I have zero confidence at this point...even less if Idzik stays. Come see me after we fire BOTH the GM and HC...then we'll reevaluate.
A team like KC is precisely what i'm talking about. You can compete while rebuilding in todays NFL. I'm not saying blow our load on a bunch of overpriced FA's. But w'ere gonna be looking for a new QB. Therefore we should be looking to build the strongest O-Line we can to protect him, we do something like that and we find a QB that can actually play, and the team will already improve tremendously. There's talent on both sides of the ball as is. This isn't the same team we were leaving the 2012 and 2013 seasons where we were so unequipped to compete offensively.
If he's resigned as a mentor on a budget deal, it doesn't mean he won't play anymore, it means the transition will begin with us getting his successor through the draft most likely, and Harris mentoring him and slowly stepping aside. Harris's stats are still good, but we are rebuilding now, and it's a good time to move on at MLB. Harris has always been good in the running game, but not so good in pass coverage. These days, it's very important to us to get a linebacker who can play in pass coverage better, because 1) NFL offenses pass a lot more now, and 2) between our D-Line and Pryor once he moves to SS, I think we can do a good job in run stopping with or without Harris. Also, if our next HC utilizes a 4-3 defense, Davis might become the lone ILB, as Harris really doesn't have the speed to cover more ground in that scheme, and Harris would become unnecessary.
Multi-year rebuilds simply don't happen in the NFL in this day and age. Since coaches are given such little time before being fired these days (which I think is a mistake) among other reasons, teams are way more likely to either remain irrelevant for years on end (Bills, Browns until this year, etc.) or have a quick resurgence in 1-2 years (49ers, Cardinals, Chiefs, Seahawks, etc... the list goes on and on.) This can either occur through a quick infusion of talent, particularly at the Qb position, or a series of good drafts that turns around a team. Long-term rebuilds can certainly happen financially (like Idzik did with our situation), but going from worst to first more often occurs in a short period of time rather than over 5-6 years. Just look at how many playoff teams change around each year. For the record, ~5 teams always make it a year after missing it. Simply stated, the parity of the NFL (compared to other sports) makes it a lot easier to quickly contend. If we play our cards right and find the Qb of the future, I don't know why we couldn't make the playoffs next year. We just need to find a way to not remain irrelevant for the next decade.
Excellent information and interesting food for thought. Moving forward some if not all of these decisions will be heavily dependent on the new HC selection, considering type of defense and offense he wants to field, and perhaps more importantly on who the GM will be in 2015. One could only speculate at this point, but it points the fact that there is some talent to consider, like Douzable, Ellis, Powell, Harrison, and some solid contributors like Jarrett, Bellore, Harris.
I would be inclined to agree with you...IF we had an average or slightly above average QB in place. Considering we have utter dung beetles in place it is what it is. To be honest, the only way we are competitive within the next 2 years is if we somehow get Mariota and he absolutely is the next Andrew Luck or someone Hypnotizes Geno Smith to channel his inner Joe Montana. Outside that...we are looking at a minimum of 3 years blowing monkey chunks.
