Good, quick read on how the lottery works tonight http://www.sbnation.com/nba/2014/5/20/5732836/nba-draft-lottery-2014-rules-how-works
It definitely needs to be fixed but it works for now instead of rushing into something worse. Just think worst record equals higher % chance of the first pick. In the NFL it's worst record equals 100% chance of getting 1st pick. NBA it's 25% or whatever.
I guess I'm asking the obvious but: this set up is to prevent "rewarding" a team going into the tank altogether to secure a guaranteed 1st pick, yes? thx
yes but teams still tank. 76ers tanked all season, dumped players that could've helped them for nothing, sat Nerlens Noel out for the entire season even though he was healthy months ago, started Byron Mullens... Leagues should stop rewarding teams for losing.
http://probasketballtalk.nbcsports.com/2014/05/20/2014-nba-lottery-is-100-percent-fixed/ Here are the true lottery odds: Milwaukee Bucks Odds of winning the lottery: 25 percent 100 percent Wesley Edens and Marc Lasry just bought the Bucks, and they were determined to complete the sale before the lottery. Suspicious timing. Obviously, the NBA offered the No. 1 pick to grease the wheels. There’s no other explanation why a team Forbes valued at $405 million sold for $550 million. Milwaukee is worth that – only with a No. 1 pick thrown in. Philadelphia 76ers Odds of winning the lottery: 19.9 percent 100 percent Last year, 76ers president Rod Thorn became the NBA’s president of basketball operations. He’ll reward his former employers with the No. 1 pick. Even if Thorn wanted to take the high road, the 76ers really forced the league’s hand here. By tanking, their attendance fell 2,848 fans per game from last season – by far the biggest drop in the NBA. The league can’t afford to have such dismal numbers in such a large market, so it will expedite Philadelphia’s rebuild. Orlando Magic Odds of winning the lottery: 15.6 percent 100 percent Cleveland lost LeBron James and then got the No. 1 pick. New Orleans lost Chris Paul and then got the No. 1 pick. Orlando lost Dwight Howard and then… Cleveland got the No. 1 pick. OK, I guess LeBron was worth two compensatory No. 1s. But now that the Magic deferred a year, they’ll get the top pick. The NBA doesn’t let teams suffer too much after losing a superstar, and Orlando has paid its dues. Utah Jazz Odds of winning the lottery: 10.4 percent 100 percent Though Andrew Wiggins is still the likely No. 1 pick, don’t rule out Jabari Parker. He’s more polished, and that could give him the edge in many statistical models teams use. So, the NBA will give the Jazz the top pick to ensure they get Parker. A Mormon star in Utah would have HUGE marketing potential. Parker could be bigger than Malone. Boston Celtics Odds of winning the lottery: 10.3 percent 100 percent The Celtics are a flagship franchise, and they play in the Northeast, an area the NBA is biased toward. The last time Boston floundered, Kevin Garnett was conveniently sent there by former Celtic Kevin McHale. The Celtics have moles all over the the league. They’re leaning on their connections – established over years of excellent and money-making play – to get a No. 1 pick. The Boston market is too valuable to the NBA to allow another season like the last. Los Angeles Lakers Odds of winning the lottery: 6.3 percent 100 percent Los Angeles is the biggest market in the lottery, and the NBA wants to keep putting the Lakers on national television. The league can’t do that as long as they remain this bad. The No. 1 pick would turn the Lakers back into marketing giants and bring streams and streams of revenue to the NBA. Did I mention money? Money, so much money. This No. 1 pick, in Los Angeles, could swing billions. Sacramento Kings Odds of winning the lottery: 4.3 percent 100 percent The Sacramento City Council will meet at 6 p.m. locally vote on whether to fund the Kings’ new arena – essentially immediately after the lottery results are televised (show begins at 5 p.m. in California). The implication is clear: Give us the No. 1 pick, or we vote no. Now that the Sacramento City Councilors have made their demands, will the NBA acquiesce? Yes, yes it will. Detroit Pistons Odds of winning the lottery: 2.8 percent 100 percent Andre Drummond has developed a cult following of fans, and the NBA sees potential. With Stan Van Gundy helping him to refine his game, all Drummond needs is another star. Then, the Pistons are set, and the league can market Drummond – who’s young, charismatic and exciting – both locally and nationally. The Pistons’ attendance is highly volatile, swinging based on the team’s quality. Across the country, people will be drawn to Drummond – as long as he plays for a winner. Cleveland Cavaliers Odds of winning the lottery: 1.7 percent 100 percent I don’t know what Dan Gilbert is blackmailing the NBA with, but it sure works. Two No. 1 picks in three years is unprecedented in the current weight setup. Gilbert tried showing restraint on his golden goose, exercising his ability to get a top pick only every other year. But now, the Cavaliers owner is getting desperate. He traded for Luol Deng and Spencer Hawes and still couldn’t make the playoffs, and Anthony Bennett sure deserves a mulligan. Gilbert will cash in again. Denver Nuggets Odds of winning the lottery: 1.5 percent 100 percent Nuggets owner Stan Kroenke also owns the St. Louis Rams, who just drafted Michael Sam, the NFL’s first openly gay player. In the wake of the Donald Sterling scandal, the NBA wants to draw attention to its most tolerant owners – even if their most-notable acts came in another sport. Denver getting the No. 1 pick will put the spotlight on Kroenke and his open-mindedness at a time the league really needs people like him at the forefront. New Orleans Pelicans Odds of winning the lottery: 1.1 percent 100 percent The team formerly owned by the NBA will definitely get the No. 1 pick. The league took over the franchise just to keep it in New Orleans, a point of pride after Hurricane Katrina. But the Pelicans still rank in the bottom third of the league in attendance. Anthony Davis has certainly helped. One more No. 1 pick will really get New Orleans over the hump. Minnesota Timberwolves Odds of winning the lottery: 0.6 percent 100 percent The NBA owners held a lockout with a goal of breaking up the Miami’s Big Three. Not only do the other owners not want super teams to be sustainable, they want to prevent them from forming by keeping their own stars – and they geared the rules toward that. They’ll gear the lottery toward that too, giving Minnesota the No. 1 pick and a much better chance of keeping Kevin Love. Phoenix Suns Odds of winning the lottery: 0.5 percent 100 percent The Suns were the only lottery team competing hard until the end of the season, and Silver will reward that. The new commissioner has shown a willingness to overhaul the draft system, moving toward a setup that no longer encourages failure. He’s on record as interested in a play-in model for the final playoff spots, too – something that really would have helped Phoenix this season. But those type of big-picture fixes take time to implement. For now, Silver can just give the Suns the No. 1 pick as an end-around to achieving the outcome he believes should occur. It’s like a team getting the ball when touching it last going out of bounds following an uncalled foul on the opponent – and we know that’s approved in Silver’s NBA. Commit these to memory now, or if you forget, check back after the lottery to see why it was rigged. After tonight, you only need to remember one of these outcomes – but then remember it forever and let all the sheeple know the truth.
The tricky part is you don't want to incentivize the 9 seed and missing the playoffs over the 8 seed and making the playoffs. An interesting one I read (probably Bill Simmons) was that every team gets percentage chances to win the lottery, even the playoff teams. The playoff teams would have lower chances obviously, but it would be weighted fairly. That would still reward tanking though so who knows. There's also the big wheel idea. http://grantland.com/the-triangle/t...g-good-bye-to-the-lottery-hello-to-the-wheel/
Wheel is crazy, but they would have to open the door for kids to play straight out of HS. Or else, they could just sit and wait for a better market team to land a top pick. I mean they could still sit and wait, but, I don't see kids wanting to wait 4 years until a team like LAL or NYK have a top pick. Most kids don't want to be in school as it is.
Teams wouldn't miss the playoffs on purpose, it's the teams that think they have almost no chance to make the playoffs you have to worry about. Like Philly, the Lakers, the Bucks... Simmons' proposal was to have a tournament for all non-playoff teams. Winner makes the playoffs. To me, I'd just give everyone an equal shot at any pick. Completely randomize it. Yes, sometimes top teams will get #1 picks. So what? Why should morons be repeatedly rewarded for their incompetence?
Well if all non playoff teams got the same odds, is the 8 seed and 2 home playoff games as valuable as odds to a top pick? That's the tough part of equaling the odds. Completely randomize would be interesting. Trades would have a lot more top 3 protections on them if everyone had a shot. Although that's a hard way to sell hope to a fanbase and keep fanbases entertained. Simmons through a bunch of ideas. One component is the entertaining as hell tournament. Another idea I think he mentioned or maybe zach Lowe or maybe together was all teams get odds. In that scenario you need to keep the 8 and 9 seed odds very similar.
You didn't mention you were talking about all lottery teams having the same odds. I thought you were talking about the current system. 2 guaranteed home playoff games with a chance at a third. But I wouldn't base it on making playoffs vs. not making playoffs. Memphis had a better team than Dallas and Phoenix and Memphis very nearly finished 9th, giving them a lottery pick. Give everyone a chance.
IMO the draft lottery should retain the current system but instead just make the odds less skewed towards the worst record. I wouldn't really oppose equal odds so long as the system draws for picks 1-3 (or 1-5 or whatever) and then allots the remaining picks to the worst records in order.
The wheel works in a perfect world where each team operates good, doesn't over sign players, and makes smart draft picks. That's not happening anytime soon. Oh and free agency has to be completely changed too
