To start off, I think the Jet's offensive issues, specifically the line, can be addressed through free agency and later rounds of the 2008 draft. I also think we can wait a year to add a top tier offensive playmaker through the 2009 draft for several reasons. First, our run defense this season took us out of many games more so than our lack of offense. Also, this year's draft has a lot of talent available for teams employing the 3-4 defense in the early rounds, mainly big 3-4 DEs and athletic 3-4 OLBs. All this being said, I think the Jets defensive front 7 is our biggest and most urgent concern. The front 7's biggest problem stems from trying to fit the wrong personel into the wrong positions. Players are being slotted into positions that do not maximize their talents simply because there is no one else to do the job. Linebackers: Vilma - He is simply not cut for the 3-4 defense. If we can get a mid 2nd round draft pick for him or better, we have to take it. I hate to see him go, but in all honesty a less talented player that is made for the job at hand will outperform a very talented player forced into the wrong position. Barton - He is a decent ILB but at 30 years old he has aged and is now expendable. Hobson - A very good player against the run who has developed decent pass rush skills. This, along with his 6'0" 250 pound frame makes him perfect for the 3-4 ILB. He is only playing OLB now because he is better than Barton at both the outside and inside positions and Barton has poor pass rush skills. With the addition of a true OLB, he can move to the inside and hopefully thrive. Thomas - Great size and athleticism for the OLB position. Although he is having a horrible year, he proved last year he could play the position more than adequately. I think the front 7's play as a whole is really holding each individual player back from playing to their potential. Fix the whole front and you have a much better player in Bryan Thomas. Defensive Line: Shaun Ellis - At 6'5 285 lbs, he is rather undersized for an already small front 7. We all know his game has never been as good as it was when J. Abraham was around and it has only gotten worse being a 3-4 DE. Ellis has become an expendable player who still has a little trade value left. DeWayne Robertson - At 6'1" 315 pounds, although he is slightly small for a NT, I think he has shown the ability at times to hold down the position adequately. Just like B. Thomas, with better play from the front 7 as a whole, I think he should do very well. I know most people want him traded but I have a solution for this position later on in the thread. Kenyon Coleman - Barely decent size at 6'5 295. Pretty much a career backup but it is good to have him around for competition's sake. Now for the offseason strategy implementation: This strategy does not rely on free agency at all. If we can fill needs through FA such as signing Terrell Suggs, that's great but it is not necessary for this to work. I think we need to add 3 or 4 players through the first two rounds of the draft in order to make the Jet's front 7 a much better group. Trading Vilma for no less than an early-mid 2nd round pick is necessary. Also if we have a top 5 pick, I think it might be necessary to trade down to stockpile some early round draft choices. Finally, if we can make some trades and pick up another 2nd round pick by either packaging some expendable players (Pennington, Ellis, Barton) and a late round pick, that might help too. Based on heights and weights from all starters in 3-4 defenses around the NFL (check my other thread), I decided on the ideal size for each position in the 3-4 defensive front. OLB: 6'3" 255 lbs. ILB: 6'2" 245 lbs. DE: 6'5" 300+ lbs. NT: 6'1" 325 lbs. 7-8 of the following names will be available after the 5th overall pick and before the 2nd round is over that can help our 3-4 defense greatly (if underclassman declare eligible for the draft). OLBs: Vernon Gholston 6'4" 260 4.58 Quentin Groves 6'4" 254 4.63 Derrick Harvey 6'4" 245 4.67 Shawn Crable 6'5" 245 4.59 DTs/DEs: Pat Simms 6'4" 316 4.92 Frank Okam 6'5" 320 5.0 Red Bryant 6'5" 324 5.08 Jason Shirley 6'5" 330 4.98 The players are ranked by best prospect at the top, however, the official numbers at the Combine in February will be a better judgement of where they actually rank. The 4 OLBs all have great pass rushing skills an should be able to support against the run due to their size. I would like to have only one of those 4 players drafted by the Jets. Now for the DTs/DEs, they all have perfect size to play on the 3-4 defensive line and since we could use two proper DEs, I think it makes sense for the Jets to pick TWO of the 4 players. Selecting two of these players will decrease the risk of a bust draft prospect, and hopefully give us two great players. Also, they should be able to play anywhere on the line allowing DeWayne Robertson to rotate and find his nitch. By simply spending 3 early draft picks, we would have greatly improved our front 7 for several key reasons. 1) Increased size of the defensive line and linebacking crew. 2) Inserted players fit for the 3-4 defense into positions that maximize their skills. 3) Added a pass rushing specialist at OLB 4) Filled the front 7 with youth and 1st and 2nd round draft talent. One last comment. Althought Glen Dorsey and Chris Long are better than any player in the previous list, in no way shape or form do they have the size necessary to be PERFECT fits for our defense. That's not to say they can't succeed in the 3-4 it's just saying, "Hey, aren't you all sick of trying to put square pieces into circle holes (Vilma)?" When there are players available that fit your scheme perfectly, why bother trying to squeeze in guys that potentially don't fit?
Other potential 3-4 DEs: Tyson Jackson - He should stay another season though. DeMario Pressley Kentwan Balmer - Best 3-4 DE prospect in the draft IMO. High motor, athletic, good size, great at anchoring. Dre Moore - Most athletic DT in this draft. Very good run stuff, excellent size, and developing as a pass rusher. Keilen Dykes - Probably fits the Wade Phillips/1 gap 3-4 better, but high motor guy with size. Nick Hayden - Noticed him every time I saw Wisconsin. Solid player, but not as exciting as the first 4 guys. Chris Norwell - This guy interests me. He's got excellent size, he's been productive, he's high motor, he can 2 gap...I think he's a sleeper.
Love Pressley & Balmer -- they will be able to put on 10lbs once they hit the pros to get over the 300lb mark. I like Dre Moore a lot, as well. I specifically watched the Maryland-WV game to see Keilen Dykes play. I ended up seeing him getting pushed around most of the night. I felt like I was watching a JET game.
Thanks, I actually just had surgery so I have been in bed the last couple of days with nothing else to do. I spent a couple hours on this thread. So for the most part everyone aggrees that there is plenty of 3-4 talent that it would make sense to spend 3 to 4 picks on early right?
Good post. Also Frank Morton from Tulane may be a guy we can take in the 4th or 5th round, he probably won't ever be a starter but he could add some depth and size at 6-2 331lbs
I think the first two picks should be on front 7 players. I'd be very happy getting Dorsey with the first round pick and a pass rusher with the 2nd pick. Then they could use free agency to upgrade RT and LG. Give me a front seven of Ellis, Robertson, Dorsey, Coleman, Pouha and Mosley on the line with Groves, Hobson, Harris and Thomas at linebacker and it's a start. As far as the offensive line is concerned give me Stacy Andrews at RT and Jacob Bell at LG. Brick, Bell, Mangold, Moore and Andrews and the line should be drastically better.
Very nice post, but disagree on trading Vilma and Ellis. I think they could both be very useful as situational players, in passing situations. In passing situations you have Thomas, Dwayne, and Ellis on the line. And Harris and Vilma at LBer, and you bring in a coupld DBs or mix and match base on situations, etc. Vilma is still a very good coverage LBer, and I don't think we'll get any value for him when we don't even know if he will be healthy to start the year. I keep saying Donnie Edwards thrived in a 3-4 at about 230 pounds, why can't Vilma?
nice but you are being too kind to the present players on the front 7 now...... there is a reason the jets D sux, and its not all the scheme.... IMO - 3 current guys will likely be gone....i do not know who but i would imagine they would involve the LB position. the DL is poor BUT it has been proven that the heart of the 3-4 are the LB's so you do not need probowl talent up front for success. it wouldn't suprise me if they bring in a couple younger DL guys but remember they are likely coming from a 4-3 and a completely different system. the FA way for the DL is usually best for the 3-4 unless you can get a stud like Ngata in there which will cost you a top 15 pick. if you are lucky you can uncover that college DE who could get some college sacks but in the NFL he would be best as a gap controller in the 3-4. you do not care if these guys cannot get around the edge, your LB's have that job. i think we get a heavy dose of LB in the draft. the thomas signing last year is becoming more and more of a mystery to me......similar to his draft pick jil
the thing with Vilma is he is getting close to his contract year....there is NO way the jets will pay him as the cornerstone of the defense..... ILB are not cornerstones in the 3-4 so you have a big discrepancy there. the BIG 3-4 contracts should be given to one cornerback position, OLB, one safety positon, and either the NT/DE positions depnding on the player. jil
very good post OP. But I was reserved to read it. Last (off)season showed me how crazy I can get about the draft. It was the first time I payed attention to who was coming out of college (I'm 24 and pay no attention to college any other time, even my own!) Anyway, part of me wishes that awesome posts like this were saved till the season was done. I know thats why its in the draft forum, specifically for this, but its fun after the season bc theres no more jets football. and we know exactly where we're supposed pick in the draft. rant rant rant. kudos on the thoughtful post.
The 40 times are not official. I got them from some mock draft website so they are probably very inaccurate. I have no idea what the Jets coaching staff feel is the weaker point, LB or D-Line but I really hope either way they draft at least 4 players for the front 7 early on. Donnie Edwards is one of the most versatile linebackers in NFL history. So despite his size, he can pretty much do anything on the football field. Jamal Williams at NT surely made it alot easier for him at ILB but Edwards is really something Vilma is not.
Repeat after me: Barton>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>Hobson Hobson will be a free agent after this season and the Jets would be smart to let him go. Keeping Barton allows the Jets the opportunity to deal Vilma without creating a huge hole at ILB. They can add a player in free agency or the draft without reaching. Barton's biggest problem is his contract. Perhaps the Jets could try to extend him (to reduce his average pay / bonus) or get him to take an outright pay cut before they deal Vilma.
How do we know Barton is better than Hobson? I'm still not sure who I would say is better really and I haven't been able to find evidence that puts one over the other. They both have similar total tackles and equal amount of sacks. I'd keep Hobson over Barton because Barton is a lot older and has started to decline whereas Hobson will prolly play at his mediocre level without declining yet.
Although he his older, Barton has 11 more tackles than Hobson and is 2 inches taller. He also has the same number of sacks as Hobson despite playing the ILB position with more responsibility for stopping the run. Unlike Hobson, Barton also has experience playing inside and outside. Moving Hobson inside could be a pipe dream while he has demonstrated that he is mediocre as a 3-4 OLB at best. Also, Barton managed to keep David Harris on the pine until Vilma got hurt. Hobson hasn't had as much competition for the starting spot on the outside.
Good points...I think both of them need to be replaced either way but one of them should stick around next season for depth.
Barton needs to stay for the points mentioned above - taller, faster. Moving Hobson to ILB and "testing" that he works out or not will come back to bite us. But at the same time, if we let Hobson go, we'd better have a damn good replacement for his OLB spot - either through FA or the draft (top pick). I'm tired of replacing mediocre players w/mediocre players. We let Kimo go & replace him Kenyon Coleman,...(yawn). The only bad thing about Barton is his contract, we need to try & rework that deal. Hobson has been given plenty of time to show his stuff and he has been an average OLB AT BEST.
