Chad has a very weak arm for an NFL QB - that's a fact. I cannot recall any NFL QB with a weaker arm, can you? Are you trying to prove he doesn't have a weak arm with your stats? I'd like to see a breakdown of how many attempts and completions were made for each category of passes. If Pennington didn't throw many of those longer passes it would be easy for him to have a higher average. For example, if Penny threw 3 passes longer than 20 yards and completed 2 of them for say 25 yards each, his YPA on 20+ passes would be 16.66. If Clemens threw 10 passes longer than 20 yards and completed 5 of them for 25 yards each, his YPA on 20+ passes would only be 12.5. Yards per completion could be a more telling stat.
Jade use YPC instead of YPA Pennington was one of the worst QBs in the league in YPC whereas KC was one of the best. If KC can get his completion % up, which is not unreasonable to expect, his passer rating will go through the roof. It's hard to swallow any argument that Pennington has better arm than KC, or any QB for that matter, when it comes to the intermediate throws such as the 20 yard out route. Pennington does not have the velocity to make that throw consistently.
No I never disputed Chad had a weak arm, so questioning me on that is silly. The fact that the weaker arm gut gained more yards on longer passes, and the stronger arm guy gained more yards on shorter passes is alarming. The fact that everybody can rip Chad and ignore this is foolish, sure you can look into yards per completion, if you wan to take accuracy out of the equation. Lets see accuracy is that a good trait for a QB??? You are just speculating that whole yards per completion look it up you may be wrong, but regardless, should not attempts and accuracy be considered. Look I never said I wanted Chad to start, I hope and pray Clemens is our franchise QB and the next dynasty leader, but the facts as of right now do not show him to be leaps and bounds ahead of Ole girlie arm. No matter how much people bash Chad, and ignore Kellen's weaknesses does not change the fact that Clemens is not exactly shining in practice even today. So just because Chad is out, does not mean we will have a better result, no matter how much I and all of you want that. Acting like Clemens is great, it was the receivers, it was the O-line, it was Coles and the coaches, stats don't matter, is just plain stupid at this point.
The really sad thing is that fans in cities that have good teams with good QB's knew this back in 2004 when we all still thought Chad was quite good. I remember having a discussion with my brother-in-law, who is a lifelong Steelers fan born and raised in Pittsburgh, during the Jet's-Steelers playoff game that year. We got to halftime and he was really surly because the Steeler's rookie QB was folding under pressure at that point and the Jets were making a game of it due to that factor. I pointed out that Chad was essentially returning the favor by playing very conservatively leading the Jets to punt after punt. He looked at me and, dead serious, asked me what I really saw in Chad that made me think he was good enough to be playing in an AFC Championship game in a week's time. He said that if Roethlisberger was settling for 4 yard completions on 3rd and 7, as Chad was doing repeatedly in that game, that the Steelers would still have only 10 points on the board but Roethlisberger's numbers would look a lot better. In the second half I watched a lot more closely than I had been in the first and he was dead on. Roethlisberger was screwing the pooch royally but he was throwing the ball down the field trying to make plays. Chad was just dinking and dunking and punting. He was hurt then and he had no business being on the field, which I pointed out a couple of times after he'd lobbed another dead completion to one of his backs. Realistically though the game we saw that day has by and large been the pattern he has followed ever since. That injury in 2004 really finished him, it just took awhile for that to become clear. Chad wound up throwing 10 completions for 7 yards or less in that game. Roethlisberger threw 4, including the TD that tied the game in the 4th quarter. That was the difference on the day: they both put up pretty crappy numbers, but Roethlisberger was trying to win and Chad was just settling for the tie.
I agree. For some reason a sizeable portion of our fanbase is not aware of what a joke most see him to be. I blame this on two things, one small and one large. The small thing is that for some reason all the talking heads on tv dance around it. They don't come out and say he's great, thankfully. But at most they talk about him in an almost code that doesn't make clear their real assessment of him. Unfortunately, just as with politics, many people form their own opinions, or more likely confirm the ones they already have, listening to talking heads and hearing what they want from them. The much larger problem is that a large part of the fanbase sees Chad as the face of the franchise. This is not limited to younger fans, but for obvious reasons it tends to be more common among them. Franchise history in the last ten years moved from a brief period when Parcells was here and Vinny, but both were transients and seen as such. Herm came in, and alot of fans liked him, and he became the spokesperson for the franchise as it transitioned from the Hess ownership to Woody's. But Woody is if anything even less of a public figure than Hess was. So into this vacuum first steps Herm, and eventually Herm starts playing Chad. Chad then has this good second half in 02, and he's well spoken, younger than the really old Vinny, who we always knew had a limited time at the helm. Martin was the best player on the team, but it was always his style to quietly do his job. I admired him for that, but it also meant he was not the face of the franchise. So guess what, Chad and Herm hit it off great, and I must admit there was something heartwarming about how it almost seemed at times like they were father and son, despite the obvious fact they were not. Unfortunately for Herm, and us, Herm then began to have a series of problems managing the team, particularly the CS, and his image slowly began to tarnish. Meanwhile Chad began his series of injuries, which only increased his stature by getting people to be sympathetic to him. Yeah, you can't get it done on IR, but hey, he was giving his all for the team! His teammates for the most part also seemed to like him and were loyal to him, and he to them. Chad was also well spoken. I'll put aside whether he's handsome or not, but I do think it's fair to say he had/still has a certain appeal to the female part of the fanbase. His close friendship with Coles also made people feel good about him. Hey, doesn't all that sound great? And along with this all developing, Herm eventually flames out and leaves, again creating a vacuum that Chad is all too well poised to fill. Now he is the face of the franchise, with no rival. Martin retires as well. The only problem is, the injuries take their toll, and Chad's limitations become more and more problematic. But no rivals rise to challenge his status. Mangini has his fans, but he is no Herm in terms of dealing with the public. Woody continues to hide in the background, only to emerge to announce real estate deals and such. I like Thomas Jones, but he's almost as quiet as Martin. Coles has always been too prickly a personality to challenge for fan affections. Vilma looked like me might, at least somewhat, but he declined in fan favor as well and now is gone. Clemens? Not yet, that's for sure. He's been too much in Chad's shadow, and to be fair has not yet come close to having the success Chad had in 02. Chad continues to have support because for a sizeable portion of the fanbase he is who they think of when they think of the Jets. His image comes to mind for them. They in practical terms know of no other way to think of the Jets. Doing so is outside their experience. Of course then there are those like me who have given up on him and see his pull on that portion of the fanbase as a combination of being undeserved and living in the past, preventing the franchise from moving forward. Someday the Chad era will be blessedly behind us, but that day has not yet come. In the meantime I guess we will just have to survive it.
True yet he gained more yards from deeper passes than Kellen, who gained most of his yards from completing shorter passes. So Kellen gained more yards from completing shorter passes than Chad, and Chad gained more yards from completing deeper passes than Kellen. Lets just ignore that, sweep it under the rug and hope it goes away, besides we can talk about Chad not being able to come back or win. Screw the fact that Chad probably won't ever start again, lets focus on him and last year and '04, who cares about the glaring problems his replacement has, that was the O-line's fault.
All I'm saying is that YPA can be a very misleading stat, especially if the number of attempts is heavily skewed one way. Where did you find your original stats and I'll see if I can break it down further. I couldn't find that info. Also, you're making a mistake by saying "the weaker arm gut gained more yards on longer passes, and the stronger arm guy gained more yards on shorter passes" without providing the rest of the information - how many attempts, and how many total yards would be required information to make that statement.
If you only throw intermediate to long passes a couple of times when guys are wide open you will have a high completion % on those throws even though you don't normally throw them. That would create good stats on YPA on those limited throws. I would assume that last year neither Chad or Clemens throw many long passes although I'm sure Clemens threw a greater % of long passes and may have completed a lower % of them which would tend to reduce his YPA number. Based on actual completions Chad averaged 9.86YPC and Clemens averaged 11.76YPC.
Right, right it has nothing to do with accuracy at all. My bad I thought I saw Clemens over, and under throw guys too last year.
Excellent analysis of the issue. It's hard to be a golden boy with Opie-ish tendencies and not have people love you. Especially when the numbers you put up are decent on the face of them even though the results the team is getting are not.
I read it in one of the reports, I'll see if I can find it again, and post more, but accuracy has allot to do with this regardless, there is no denying that. Also by average, who gained more yards per completion on the longer passes according to those stats? What now averages don't count?
This is a great post. I would rather Chad try to throw the ball down the field and make more mistakes and try to win the game as opposed to Dink and dunking our seasons away. The 2004 injury was the end for Chad and it is really sad. It that injury did not happen I think his Jet Carer would have gone a whole lot different.
This is very true, but do you think the play calling was that way solely because of Chad or were there other factors? I sometimes wonder...
You cannot get better without taking chances. That's just not how the world works. Settling for Chad is giving up. I'd rather have the Jets go through three QB's over the next three seasons trying to find a really good one than watch Chad just play out the string, knowing that he would never be a really good one again.
I was actually mad at Hackett and Herm for their play calling for years but eventually I had to come to the realization that they had to design plays to suit Chad's strong suits. The offense was designed to run the ball and for Chads short pass plays. They made the call to keep Chad at Qb and had to design an offense to execute their plan.
The only time the Jets offense has really clicked with Chad at QB for more than a couple of games was in 2002 when Hackett was calling all the moves with a first year starter at QB and was doing everything he could to pave the way for Chad's success.
True, but that is also easier said than done, lets hope it does not come to that. I think everybody would love Kellen to be the guy to take us to the next level, whether or whether not we have been classified as a "Chad fan." :wink:
