If the Jets are going to trade up with the Saints in order to acquire Matt Leinart, they are in the drivers seat. The Saints have a few choices as to what they are going to do in the 2006 NFL draft: 1) If they don't get an offer they are satisfied with, they will stay pat at number 2 overall, and probably take either Mario Williams or D'Brickashaw Ferguson. 2) They can trade down a few spots with the Jets, in which case either Williams or Ferguson will almost certainly still be on the board - but they are guaranteed one of them. 3) They can trade down past the Jets. This is could be problematic for the Saints, because the next suitor in need of a quarterback is the Oakland Raiders, who haven't shown too much interest in Leinart - yet. This would be an unsavory deal for the Saints, as every mock I've seen has both Williams and Ferguson gone by the 7th pick. Unless the Raiders throw in an obscene number of picks (or a player or two), there's no way the Saints will bite. Keep in mind that the Saints pick equals 2600 points, whereas the Raiders have 1500 with their pick. It'd be tough to make up the difference, as they would have to throw in most, if not all of their others picks in the draft (purely points-wise). Keep in mind that 1100 points is equivilant to the 14th pick overall - it's big difference. The Raiders could throw in this year's first, a second, and next year's first (and maybe even another conditional pick), but again, the Saints would lose out on both Williams and Ferguson. I also don't see the Saints taking anything past the 7th, unless it is an incredibly good offer. If the Saints are going to draft Williams/Ferguson, they can stay where they are, where they are guaranteed at least one of them, or they can trade down to number 4, and still get whichever one they want (I'm 99.9% sure that they'll both still be there at number 4), and get a little something extra out of it (a player and/or pick from the Jets). The Jets are definately the best choice for the Saints if they want to trade down. The Jets should be aware of this, and if they do decide to entertain the offer to the Saints, they need to play hardball. I believe they shouldn't offer anything above a 2nd round selection. The Saints should know that if they are going to draft Williams/Ferguson, they should at least be able to get a little something else out of it. In fact, a 2nd should be the Jets final offer - they should start negotiations a bit lower than that. Even though Saints would be getting a terrible deal points-wise, it's probably the best for both parties. Even if the Saints refuse to accept a lowball offer from the Jets out of principle, there's still a small chance Leinart will still be on the board at number 4 (if the Titans are as infatuated with both Cutler/Young as they've let on. But I cannot see Norman Chow allowing Leinart to get past them). If the Jets can get Leinart for the right price (which for me would be either a player, or a maybe a 3rd this year and a 2nd next year), we should definately take him. Otherwise, we have too many holes to fill to give up too many Day 1 picks.
yeah, we definitley have control on the situation. I think the Saints could get more out of it though, and they might demand both our first round picks. Im not really for trading up for Leinart anyway........:eaglessuck:
It should be noted that if the Jets do show interest in trading up, and the Titans really want Leinart, the Jets could find themselves in a bidding war for that 2nd spot.
Ahhhh, I love the days and weeks leading up to the draft... Some good points. I too would prefer not to trade any of our picks to get Leinart. I would like them to keep both picks and fill our needs.
These are good points. The value chart is only a general guide and situations really dictate the trading outcome. Personally, I don't want to trade up.
We would have to cough up both first rounder and a mid round pick from either this years draft or next years... I am all for a move for Matt Leinart...it would suck to give up all those picks, but down the road we look back and laugh so hard we would cry...
One other thing I forgot to mention was that I'm willing to play hardball with the Saints to get Leinart this year because if we miss out on him, I would rather get Brady Quinn next year.
I think there's a point which all the "fill as many needs as you can" people are missing in their anti-trade up logic. We are not built to win anytime soon. We need to put a QB in place. Whomever that QB is, presuming he's a rookie (I have no faith in Chad or Ramsey), he will likely ride the bench all, or most of his first year. He would therefore have his first season start in '07. If the Jets don't take a QB this year, and instead wait until next year's draft, that means the new QB sits for the '07 season, and has his rough first year learning curve in '08. That means '09 at best for a decent season. There is also no guarantee that we are going to stink bad enough for a top 4 pick next year, thus we may be picking an even worse QB next year than those available to us this year. We don't pick a QB this year and we can't hope to see the playoff's before '09. We pick one, and at least you can hope for '08.
I really don't think so. True, that's what the chart says but as the original poster suggests, it's all a matter of bargaining power. If N.O. wants to draft one of their two top choices, they can only trade with us. If thay accept a second rounder as the incentive, it's to their advantage, as they gain that pick while still picking the same person they would have without the trade. If they don't make that trade, they get the same draftee without adding a second rounder. All parties know that this is the case so there's no way we would have to give up more than that.
Bad news.. the reasons you give, in my opinion, but the SAINTS in the drivers seat. They do not need to do this. The Jets do
Also you say your 99.9% sure that Mario Williams and Ferguson will make it to the 4th pick? Are you a mind reader? how do you know that? If the Jets trade up to #2 it could be to take Mario Williams or Leinart. If the Jets take Leinart then the Titans may take Ferguson? I don't understand your reasoning that your 99.9% sure.
some good point but the SAINTS are in the drivers seat,not the jets...the saints hold the pick ya know....in yer raider scenario you made it seem like the point system was the bible..yet in yer jet scenario the saints would say"ahh even though we didnt get the right value we still got our man" i think you have to be consistent if youre gonna think for someone else ya know?
The Jets have too many needs to be trading away draft picks for one player. Rather see them stand pat or trade down. I highly doubt the FO will trade up anyway. They seem to want to acquire more picks not trade them away. They played hardball with ATL because they did not want to trade away draft picks to get Abe. They were willing to pay a malcontent 8million to play for them instead of trading away a pick. That tells me they will stay or trade down.
If Mangini intends to use the NE philosophy, then there's no way we're trading up; especially with 3 QB's already on the roster, two of which have starting potential (obviously, Chad if he fully recovers, and Ramsey who is still an unproven mystery). When you rebuild, you acquire the most picks and the most value possible. You don't pawn picks to roll the dice for a "big splash." cheers
Its really my feeling that the FO wants to give Ramsey a shot as our QB of the future. If he doesn't pan out, look for us to draft a QB in '07. It doesn't make sense to get Ramsey if you don't think he can do something. Why not just stick with Bollinger and your draft pick behind Penny?
Obviously I'm not a mind reader, but 2 things. 1) If we trade up to the number 2 spot to pick someone who isn't Leinart (or Bush somehow), I think most Jets fans will commit suicide. Whoever trades up to the number 2 spot will almost certainly do so to get Leinart. As good as Williams is, I don't think any team would give up that much to get him, especially if the Saints really want him. 2) I can virtually guarantee that either one will be there, but I'm pretty sure both will be there because the Titans were supposed to be taking Vince Young when Leinart was going to go to the Saints. If we trade up for Leinart, presumably they go with the original Plan A draft Young.
The Saints are only in the drivers seat if they think/know that we really want Leinart. We have to convince them that we don't want him that badly, but we'd be interested if the price was right. It's a staredown, a game of chicken. I say we're in the drivers seat because we don't need Leinart, and when it comes down to it, we will definately call their bluff. The point was to show that trading with the Raiders would be trading down too far down. In either case, they are most likely not going to get equal value - but presumably in the Raiders case, since both players they wanted would be gone, I assume they'd use the point system for more leverage in that case. The Jets know the Saints will probably take either Ferguson or Williams, and that both will probably still be there at pick 4. The Saints have virtually nothing to lose, and something to gain (a 2nd round pick or a player from us). The Jets have the leverage. We don't need Leinart. We would like him, but we don't need him.
