Trading the #1 pick because of the draft value chart is almost impossible. And the last time it was done (sort of) with the Chargers and Giants it was clear that the Giants overpaid. There is no one this year that is as coveted as Eli was that year either. Unless Parcells trades the pick for far less than it's "book" value they will have to take the pick.
The last five trades of the 1 or 2 pick: 2004: Giants trade for Eli Manning after the pick giving up David Rivers (4 pick), 2005 #1 pick (Shawn Merriman) and 2004 3rd round pick (Nate Kaeding) and 2004 5th round pick which the Chargers traded for Roman Oben. Clear winner: Chargers by a mile. The Giants effectively removed their chances to be dominant over the next half decade by letting go so much value for Manning. 2001: Falcons trade for #1 pick (Michael Vick) giving up #5 pick (LaDainian Tomlinson), #67 pick (Tay Cody), 2002 2nd round pick (Reche Caldwell) and WR/PR Tim Dwight to the Chargers. Clear winner: Chargers by a mile. Tomlinson has been better than all the other players in the deal combined and his rookie contract was much less steep than Vicks, giving the Chargers better cap position over the years. 1998: Chargers trade for #2 pick (Ryan Leaf) giving up #3 pick (Andre Wadsworth), #33 (Corey Chavous), 1999 1st round pick (David Boston), RB/PR Eric Metcalf and LB Patrick Sapp to the Cardinals. Clear winner: Cardinals by a mile. Leaf never played a productive down for the Chargers and his impact on their cap was considerable. All of the players acquired by the Cardinals contributed for several seasons. 1997: St Louis Rams trade for #1 pick (Orlando Pace) giving up #6 pick, #67 pick, #104 pick and #207 pick (I think, it gets confusing because of Parcells further trades) to the Jets. Jets wind up with James Farrior on the #8 (the #6 pick was standout LT Walter Jones), Dedric Ward on the #88 (the #67 pick was G Dan Neil), Leon Johnson on the #104 and Jason Ferguson on the 229 (the #207 pick was QB Koy Detmer.) Clear winner: Everybody. The Rams came out of nowhere to win a Super Bowl in 1999 with a big boost from Pace who kept people off Kurt Warner and opened holes for Marshall Faulk. The Jets wound up with Farrior, Ward, Johnson and Ferguson along with 3 other players from the following trades of picks that the Rams sent the Jets. The 1998 Jets team was greatly bolstered by the trade and was the best Jets team in a generation or more. 1997: Oakland Raiders trade for #2 pick (Darrell Russell) and #166 pick (john Fiala) giving up #10 pick (Chris Naeole), #39 pick (Jared Tomich), #107 pick (Pratt Lyons) and Daryl Hobbs. Clear winner: Nobody. Russell was a great talent who made two pro bowls before flaming out with legal and drug problems. Fiala was a promising LB who never made it, although he was good on special teams for a few years. The only player who remains in the NFL is G Chris Naeole who is a tough but unheralded veteran guard for Jacksonville Jaguars. Bottom line: trading up for the 1 or 2 pick is a loser move most of the time regardless of who you take with the pick. It's just too expensive to move up to make the crapshoot anything but a life or death experience for the management team involved. All of the GM's involved on the trade-up side of the trades above were gone within 3 seasons of the trade except for Rich McKay in Atlanta. McKay is currently on the NFL GM endangered list.
Br4dw4y5ux, if you rattled that off from memory, I may never try to debate you. It was a very good post.
One thing you have to remember is Jerry Jones's arrogance. After this he he probably will feel that he doesn't need that many picks because of the talent he thinks he has on the team and McFaddeden is his Golden boy from Arkansas. That being said, he trades up takes McFadden, TO tries to commit suicide again because someone is taking the spotlight from him and Romo turns into a nancy because of Simpson.
Great post and another reason they will not be able to trade the pick.Plus there is no real "gotta have" player in the draft, at least not yet.
Here's my prediction, he keeps the pick and takes Jake Long. Its a can't lose move. Jake Long will be the player people will want by the time the combine is done.
The one position they do not need is RB, Julius Jones and Marion Barber are solid and have shown they can carry the load , not flash but can get it done. As has already been said Dallas won't trade up
I know they don't need a running back, but Jerry Jones may make this trade with his heart to get his Razorback in there.
Look at the '97-'99 drafts- those were parcells drafts. Parcells gave groh all the creit(blame) for the Key trade and the '00 draft at the time, he has tried to take credit since everything worked out ok but look at his '97-'99 drafts and those were real parcells drafts and hopefully he does w/ the #1 pick this year waht he did w/ it for us in '97.
Pennington & #3 for #1(Dorsey). Will never happen, but one could dream. Of course if it did happen, we're guaranteed to see Chad hoisting the Lombardy trophy next to Parcells.
Here is a trade for the first overall pick that worked (exerpt from the Hershel Walker trade): On April 19, 1991 (draft) Dallas traded Minnesota's 1st pick, Dallas' 2nd, DB Ron Francis, LB David Howard and LB Eugene Lockhart to New England for New England's 1st pick (#1 overall) and selected DT Russell Maryland. With Minnesota's pick (#11 overall) New England selected OL Pat Harlow. With the #38 pick, Houston picked DB Darryl Lewis (Arizona). With Dallas' 3rd round pick (#68 overall) Minnesota selected WR Jake Reed. I am not sure what NE did with the second rounder but Russel Maryland worked out pretty good for the Cowboys.
As much as I liked to bash the Phins for the Ginn pick, I think he will develop into a Top 5 receiver from what I've seen from him this season.
I don't think he can trade this pick. Who wants this drafts #1 pick that badly? Maybe the Cowboys for McFadden...but thats a stretch I think.
I think he will trade the pick because of his track record... Miami has so many holes on the team that they are on a 5 year plan!
How dumb are you going to feel when we don't draft McFadden and you have to pick a new username? Or did I already ask you this question a year ago?
