Obviously there are a lot of variables that come into play with this question but I'm curious as to how early people will be considering drafting Johnson in keeper and non-keeper leagues. Last year I think I messed up taking reggie bush too early and I don't want to make the same mistake again. I'm thinking: non-keeper league: 4th - 5th round keeper league: 2nd - 3rd round
I wouldn't touch him until the last couple rounds in a non-keeper. More likely than not he's going to have average numbers at best this year.
I love his talent but I don't like the situation. Yes, Kitna will be airing it out a lot and Detroit will often be playing from behind. But Roy Williams and Mike Furrey are both really good WRs. Calvin isn't gonna get all the attention like say an Andre Johnson or Lee Evans does. I'd take him in the 4th round in a keeper league and more like 5th or 6th in regular.
I'm not going to consider him in non-keeper leagues because everyone will jump on him too early while he has no QB, no running game, and two very good receivers taking the ball away from him (Williams and Furrey). I don't think he's going to produce more then 700 yards and 5 or 6 TD's this year. In a keeper league, he'd be worth a pick in the middle rounds... but sniffing him in the top 3 or 4 rounds would be insane, IMO.
I think Jon Kitna is pretty good at doing what he?s doing, he?s no peyton manning, yes, but he?s no rex grossman either! He?s playing for Mike Martz, meaning there will be a lot of passing and high-scoring. There will be room for everybody, damn, Furrey is what? a former safety? and he still managed to accomplish over 1000 yards last year. Defenses have to be honest on Johnson AND Williams, I think that?s too much of a task except for Denver! The Detroit-D is far from being well respected, meaning the offense will have to score tons of points to stay in the game. Don?t sleep on the running game, they got Jones who?s injured, tatum bell, an incredible player with good speed woh?s prone to fumbling and TJ Duckett, a truck when it comes to moving the ball 1 or 2 yards! Sounds pretty good to me, depite the fact they probably don?t own a top 10 back! I wouldn?t touch CJ either, cause I think he will be slightly overvalued, but he still might have an incredible season!
