Last night while scouring the internet for different NFL nuggets and how they might impact the Jets, something became very clear to me: The Jets are NOT preparing for a 2007-2008 Super Bowl run. To be honest, up ?til now I hadn?t given much thought to the Super Bowl. To some this may have already been obvious..to others it might be blasphemy. If the Jets were intent on the SB, one of the big name free agents would be a member of this team today. Now some may point to the Thomas Jones deal, but I view that move more as correcting a deficiency than bringing in a player to get us over the hump. Don?t get me wrong, I love the move, but it is a short-term correction, not a franchise-changing proposition. So if we are not focused on The Big Dance, what are the expectations for next season? When I look back at last season, it was all about changing the culture...getting tougher, getting smarter. To me, it seems that next step in the progression is to determine which players will be the core of the Tangini era. Putting rookies and free agents aside for a moment, this will be the second year under the new regime for most of the team,,,it is time figure out who belongs and who doesn?t. Let?s start on defense (because I think the key areas are more obvious). It should be clear to anyone paying attention last year that Kerry Rhodes was the best player on defense (I?d actually argue, best on the team). For next season, we need to see if he will continue to develop and become a truly elite player...he needs to be our Ronnie Lott or at least our Ed Reed. However, unless he completely fizzles out, I see him as an anchor on this D for many years to come. The 3 players that I think will be most under the microscope will be Vilma, Robertson and Ellis. In this defense, those three play perhaps the most critical positions. Being just OK isn?t gonna cut it. They need to become dominating forces both against the run and pass. If they can?t, it will be time to cut bait and bring in someone new (I wouldn?t be surprised to see us use first-day draft picks at those spots, to replace them if they fail). The long-term solution at safety (along with Rhodes) is probably already on this team...I?m confident that either Coleman or Smith will become a quality starter. I think holes remain at LB, CB (Dyson is fine for now...the opposite side is the problem), and the other DE (we?ll see about Coleman). So I think the big things to look for are Vilma, Robertson and Ellis on the hot seat and filling the holes at LB, CB and DE. Over to the more complicated sitiuation...offense. I?ll save QB for last. Starting with the line, clearly Mangold and Ferguson were solid last season and I would be surprised to see anything but continued improvement. My biggest disappointment of the offseason has been the mess that is the right side of the line. This team needs a RG and RT desperately. The run blocking last season sucked. I?m not worried about Mangold, Kendell and D?Brick doing their jobs, but we need some guys who can open holes for TJ and Washington to get into the secondary. How Tangini addresses this issue will tell us a lot about their ability to solve problems without overspending in free agency. As I said earlier, I think the RB situation has been solidified for now, but I foresee a first round RB being drafted in 2008 or 2009. I often read here that the WR position is set...I think this is a very short-sighted view. I believe there is only one long-term WR on this team...Cotchery. Mark my words, Coles will not be on this team much longer (maybe gone next offseason...but definitely the season after that). He is getting old. He has nagging injuries. And he is a complainer. Is he a very good receiver...sure. Is he tough...absolutely. But there are at least 20 WRs in the NFL who are just as good or better. Beyond C&C, there isn?t much here. Where is the deep threat? Where is the 3rd down slot guy (spare me Tim Dwight...he is not the second coming of Crebet)? Brad Smith is dynamic, but he isn?t a true receiver...and probably never will be. This is a position that needs to be strengthened before we start talking SB. As for TE, this will be Baker?s make-or-break season. He will either emerge as a threat, or TE will become a need area for this team. I am always dubious when people say he is underutilized. Maybe he isn?t getting open...or maybe he just isn?t as good as we think he is. Last stop QB...I don?t envy the conundrum Mangini faces here. Pennington is the heart and sole of this team. He makes up for his lack of physical talent with intangibles. He embodies everything Mangini teaches...toughness, smarts and a love for football. However, the physical limitations are tough to ignore. If Mangini goes to Clemens, he risks fracturing the locker room. In my opinion, the only way Kellen Clemens is the Jets starting QB is if Chad gets hurt OR if Chad?s performance is costing the team games (and it needs to be obvious). I think Mangini will stick with Chad for all of 2007, allow the rest of the team to develop, and then make the best decision he can in 2008. It is a lot easier to be a an armchair coach than be in Mangini?s position and have to strike the right balance between what is good for the present and what is good for the future. So, I think the big things to look for on offense are fixing the right side of the line and finding the right mix at WR. In terms of wins and losses, this season will be a lot harder that 2006: - tougher schedule - no one will underestimate us - expectations from the fans/media are higher Getting back to 10-6 will be an accomplishment. I think if we can see the continued development of our young player, find out who REALLY represents the core of this franchise, and fill some of the big holes, 2007 will be a successful season. Then in 2008 we can dream about the Promised Land. DbJ
i tend to believe the leash only gets shorter for chad. i remember (i think lange) on nfl radio saying the samething and that 16 interceptions again this season will have chad finishing the season on the bench wth a clipboard. but he has a real running game this year. so i think #s will improve. but only time will tell.
(Patriots fan here). I don't really have particularly high expectations for the Jets, but you never know what might happen. Tom Brady could break his leg, for example. I don't mean this to be funny or sarcastic, I'm just saying, you just never know what's going to happen, and the Jets COULD win the Superbowl. I am not familiar enough with the Jets' situation to know how much cap room they have. The Patriots have made a big splash this off-season after being criticized last season for not spending to the cap, so the fact that they are signing free agents is more an indication that they have cap room to squander (er, I mean spend). It doesn't mean that they are preparing for a superbowl run and the Jets aren't. It may be simply that the Jets don't have to room to sign a lot of free agents.
H'mmm supposely we had like somewhere around 28M in FA this year which was I think in the top 10 of the league
Good post. I see the Jets as in year two of the rebuilding program next season. Finish the line, begin the transition to the next QB, solidify the 3-4 by adding a few more big tough players, that's the agenda I see. I agree it will be tough to get back to 10-6, however I think it's possible. 9-7 or even 8-8 is more likely though. I disagree that the Jets are not looking at 2008 seriously though. There was no reason to acquire Thomas Jones if the Jets did not see 2008 as a real possibility. It would have been better to draft another back if they thought the process was 3+ years out. The Jets avoidance of big name free agents this season means next to nothing. Most of the teams that signed those guys will regret the signings by the end of next season. It would have been nice to see Adalius Thomas in a Jet's uniform, but not at the expense of 23 million against the cap over the next 3 years. He's going to be one of the guys that the Patriots regret by 2010. He'll be a Vinny hanging over their cap at that point and the Super Bowl run will be over for them.
Well written post, DBJ. I agree with pretty much all your points about the team needs. Still, don't think the Jets aren't looking to win the Superbowl. There's a difference between accepting you won't make it to the big game and being conservative and rational with your team building because you've only been around for a year. Look at the Patriots in 2001 - no one expected them to win the SB, not their fans, and I'm sure everyone thought not their coach either. You can point to the Colvin signing as maybe the Pats making a splash in free agency then but every team does something big in the offseason (TJones?) so I don't buy that. Fact is, any team can make it any year. Right now, the Colts and Pats have a much better chance than the Browns or Cardinals. But you never know.
Just to clarify when I wrote "2007/2008 Super Bowl run", I was really referring to just this coming season (since the SB is played in 2008). I agree that the Jets are targeting 2008. Sorry for the confusion.
I don't think that the team is plugging away for a SB run this year- we've got too many pieces of the puzzle still outstanding, anyone can see that. This is year #2 of rebuilding and I wouldn't be surprised if our record was a little worse than last year, given the more challenging schedule. I see the following season, '08, as our make or break year.
i see the jets making the playoffs but maybe getting through week 1 then thats it....we still have some limitations but id be happy with winning one PO game...i just cant wait till it starts again!!!!!!
Hoping for a SB run in 08/09. You are right about this year, not enough bullets in the gun. The result of this draft will paint a clearer picture of 08 and determine whether an 08 SB run is wishfull thinking. To many questions including QB.
Here we switch tracks sorry unless we get super lucky & secure quality LBers & DL people + quality OL people we will be still be on the outside looking in for the big dance for 08
I wouldn't disagree with this. Lots of factors (including luck, confidence and chemistry) contribute to a Super Bowl champion (look at the Rams a few years back). Any team team can go on a run. My point is that the team isn't necessarily planning for it this season.
I dont think the Jets are ready for a superbowl. I just dont think chad can do it. All people talk about is how smart he is, well didnt he throw 16 interceptions last year? Being smart is all he has because his noodle arm will never bail him out and my fat sister can probably run faster. I love the Jets and all, but with Pennington year in and year out we are just rooting for a playoff spot...thats it
There is a reason why coaches say that they have 3, 4, or 5 year plans when the come to a new team.....WINNING TAKES TIME!!!! No coach comes in and immediately makes a team a Champion. Lombardi, Parcells, Belicheck, Wooden, Dean Smith, Scotty Bowman, Al Arbour....none of those legendary coaches won right away. They all needed to teach there players How to Win... Lombardi said it in his book best...(I paraphrase, the actual quote is in his biography which I have at home)...You first must teach your players how to win, then rise them up when the lose, teach them how to win again, and then you must instill in them that the most important aspect is that "Winning is not a sometime thing; it's an all the time thing"....He goes on to say that this entire process can not happen in one or two years. It takes 3, 4, or 5 years....That's why everyone says they have a 4 or 5 year plan...They are all quoting in one way or another the great Vince Lombardi and how he built his dynasty in Green Bay. (On a side note...Lombardi use to preach the same thing to corporate management when he was asked to be a guest speaker) Mangini and Tannenbaum do not give the impression that they are complacent individuals.. They understand that WINNING TAKES TIME!! That's tought to accept when as a fan we haven't had a winner in 37 years. I as much as anybody want a Superbowl, but you know what I want a perenial winner. Winning a SB would allow me to die with a smile on my face, but to have a wining franchise that year in and year out competes for the Championship might be more important to me than just 1 SB trophy..We finally seem to have a mind set in the front office thaknows what it takes to win...Lets just sit back and enjoy the ride... As to making a big splash in Free Agency like the Pats..IMO we as a team have not yet learned that WINNING IS NOT A SOMETIME THING: IT IS AN ALL THE TIME THING" So to bring in the "missing piece to the puzzle" is not logical. The Pats can do that with Thomas and potentially Stallworth, because the nucleus of the team knows 1) How to win and 2) That "winning is not a sometimes thing; it's an all the time thing."
After Seifert adopted a 49ers team that won the SB the year before under Walsh. that is alot different then adopting a 4-12 Herm Edwards team. I thought you were smart champ?
The FACTs R that Seifort won the SB in year one of his tenure no matter how you choose to rationalize it
OK, so if you enter a race with a Ferrari and everyone else is given a Geo Metro, you will pound your chest in glorious victory? Whatever champ. :lol:
