Eh this isn't totally fair. For as much of a tool as Nania is, sometimes he puts together useful data that provide some context. Ty Simpson's drop rate was 9%. The FBS average is 7%. They also had an abysmal run game which isn't going to help a young QB. He finished with 28 TD and 5 INT, that's pretty solid. He had solid pass protection and some of the pressures were on him, so I do think he had a problem reading and reacting quickly which is a.) very valid and b.) also fixable with experience. I don't think it had to do with the quality of WR though. I'm advocating for him at 16 btw, not at all. Just looking at context in all situations. Again, Nania stinks, but this data is fact not opinion. Mendoza basically had everything he could possible need to succeed: https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HEcG2qwasAAZD_Y?format=jpg&name=medium
If the HC and new OC of the Chargers, both of which offensive skills I respect tremendously want to move from him I would be very concerned. There must be something not right there. Is not like they are ultra deep at WR at this juncture.
I've never heard of "% of pressures blamed on QB" ever in my entire life, but I have heard of touchdowns as a stat. And Ryan Williams had 10 electrifying touchdowns as a 17 year old true freshman, it got cut in half with Ty Simpson. In fact Willaims didn't have a single touchdown the last 6 games of the season and I'm supposed to believe he was playing with a 1st round level QB? no f'ing way
We just watched Justin Fields cause a ton of pressures and sacks and you've never heard of that stat? I think it was recorded for Fields and it was 2nd highest in the league. I'll try to find it. Simpson also suffered from a stomach issue the last month of the season that made him lose 15 pounds and kept him from working out so there's some context needed there too. And again... I'm absolutely not advocating for taking him at 16.
To be fair though, while he personally didn't catch as many, the team caught almost double TDs than the year before. It seems like running game went to shit for them though. OL looked pretty pad too. And I am not excusing Simpson either and would prefer a blue chip non QB as a second pick, but it does not seem like Simpson made their passing offense worse. Alabama Offensive Stats Comparison (2024 vs. 2025) 2024 Season 2025 Season Passing Yards 3,073 3,952 Passing TDs 17 32 Rushing Yards 2,260 1,561 Rushing TDs 41 18
And that's the thing, Simpson struggled with holding onto the ball and identifying the blitz. So if the stat is that he's good in that regard then the compiler has issues. "blamed" is a matter of opinion so it would track
I think based on performance alone, factoring scarcity at the position, he is in the range of #16th pick. The drop rate is absurd for top 8 team in the nation too. OL and rushing attack was awful in all the games I watched. The concerns are size, injuries in the lone season started, few games started, especially at his age, things like that. But given the performance, I think someone will roll the dice in the 1st round.
Yeah…as much as we may say he’s not worth the 16th pick, or the 20th pick, or any first round pick, whatever, the fact is that QB’s get over-drafted very often…and especially in a draft like this where the QB talent is so scarce, it would not surprise me if he goes higher than he should or would in another draft with better options. I can see it going one of two ways…if teams out there feel like he is the clear 2nd best QB and there’s a gap between him and the rest, I wouldn’t be shocked to see him go mid-first round, in the range where we are sitting right now. If on the other hand teams feel like he’s not much better than other guys like Nussmeier or Beck or whomever, then I can see him slipping to the bottom of the first round where someone will trade up to get that fifth year, or just slip into the early part of the second round. Will definitely be interesting to see how it all plays out
You have to consider how many QBS in next years draft will be better than Simpson after he sits and learns from NFL coaches most of, if not all of next season. It will not be many, if any. That means either A) The Jets will have to trade up using multiple first round picks next year (unless the Jets are actually picking in the top 3). B) The QB they pick will have to sit most to all of the 2027 season. C) Both A and B may happen. The problem is the Jets have a HC on the hotseat; if he has any say he will likely be pushing to draft Simpson, (unless he really does believe Geno is the savior). Glenn and possibly Mougey need a substantially improved record in 2026 AND a QB that looks like can improve upon the 2026 record by the start of 2027. If Geno doesn't perform well in 2026, Glenn would love to have a young QB he can put in that shows promise. If the Jets draft Simpson it likely means Glenn has a say in the choice(and/or Mougey really believes in Simpson), if they don't it likely means Mougey has already gotten assurances that he will keep his job in 2027 regardless of what happens to Glenn after 2026.
I have faith that whoever the Jets draft at QB will be a stud. Not because of our track record, but because the law of averages. Even a broken clock is right twice a day.
But the real question is, will he be a stud here, or somewhere else, but anything would be a upgrade to Wilson
Just for kicks. I just saw a couple of mocks by senior analysts where the rich get richer getting awesome players on round one. KC gets the safety Downs with pick 9, considered by many one of two best players in the entire draft, and the Rams get gifted with the top WR Tate at pick 14th. I highly doubt Tate goes past pick 6-10 range but what the hell do I know.
