Jay's House of Weather 'n Stuff

CBG · Jan 24, 2026 at 9:46 PM

Brook! said: ↑

@CBG is a legend of this forum.

Thanks sir. Stay safe everyone.
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Brook , legend I am not,,,,,that said Thank You Sir and just pm me your new address and I will mail you a check for saying those nice things about me or if you prefer I can Venmo or Zelle ? BTW after this storm IF IT HAPPENS AS ADVERTISED -----------------------> next week around th 1st or 2nd bears watching but first things first

NOVAJET · Jan 24, 2026 at 9:51 PM

CBG said: ↑

First off Jwayne and FjayF = you guys are missed more than you will ever know and I am not just talking about on the site or in this thread ,,,,,,,,,,,,,as far as the storm I will say this again even though the NAM is a shit model you cannot just toss it especially when it is alone on an island by itself with little if any support from other weather models because it is just very good at sniffing out the midlevels / warm noses and that is probable all that it is good for. So the NAM will either hit one out of the park here or it will fall flat. Hopefully by later on tonight it comes around to the other models line of thinking and trends whiter and colder and not wetter and warmer-----these setups tend to always disappoint and rarely do they live up to the hype and that is just a fact but this ridiculous cold air that we have in place is literally help drive this thing but-as far as the numbers that you see on your apps = toss them ,,,,,,as far as what the weather guys on TV or social media are saying ,it all depends on which model they follow or trust as the #'s I see them predicting are all over the place,,,,,,,,,,I can say this The National Weather Service is for the most part sticking to their guns and they are very bullish on this storm BUT if you have watched closely these past 2 days they have adjusted and lowered their #'s slightly with each weather statement,,,,,,,,,,,,that said I will take a shot at this because it is what I do - I think most everyone gets snow and most everyone sees a big thump of it,,,start time is always earlier than advertised in these types of setups but most models show it beginning between 2 and 5 am so figure by day break or sooner it is snowing and IMO by 9 am it's getting cranking,,,,and by noon or 1 pm it should come down really hard for 5 or 6 hours again IF NOT SOONER ----BUT BUT BUT does it mix or changeover during that time ? Because if it does then all the #s change ,,,I am not sure where the mixing line winds up as the models have been kind of all over the place at times and I have seen models ( Nam ) show sleet way south and all the way up to Poughkeepsie ----- with that here goes------------> NYC and the 5 boroughs 6-10 is your floor with a much higher ceiling especially IF you do not mix or changeover,,,,,,,Long Island is a tougher call as I will give you the same #'s and scenario as the boroughs but Eastern Long Island I have more concerns with mixing issues,,,,,,,IF you live in South Jersey especially along the coast I think you could may have mixing issues also just as Eastern Long Island does but again this goes for anyone regardless of where u live but all of you should get a big thump of snow before the change over IF the changeover even happens---- IF you start to hear pinging anytime after 12 pm and before 4pm then IMO you are having mixing issues as much of the heavier snow should fall between noon ant 6pm. Central Jersey same #'s 6-10 If you get more be happy if you get less blame me -----------anyone north of the Tappen Zee bridge IMO is looking at a floor of 9 -12 inches with a higher ceiling with no mixing and if you get up towards Monroe, Monticello and farther North Im talking anyone above 84 I think u are looking at 12 to 18 ,,,,,,,,,,,,Cman I did not forget about you as I think you are looking at 9-12 without mixing and again your ceiling is higher,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,Brook as usual is in the bullseye and as usual he gets buried that said I am not sure where Brookj even lives in in Jersey these days lol---------ok I gave it my best shot and If I get it right = look at me and IF I get it wrong it wont be the last time,,,,,,,,,,,ps as I wrote this long mess I cant help but think that I am really concerned about what The NAM has been showing for days because IF it is right then what you just read will not come close,,,,,,,,,we find out soon enough as game time is very close and the players are ion the field
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Any info for northern Virginia?

Brook! · Jan 24, 2026 at 10:28 PM

CBG said: ↑

First off Jwayne and FjayF = you guys are missed more than you will ever know and I am not just talking about on the site or in this thread ,,,,,,,,,,,,,as far as the storm I will say this again even though the NAM is a shit model you cannot just toss it especially when it is alone on an island by itself with little if any support from other weather models because it is just very good at sniffing out the midlevels / warm noses and that is probable all that it is good for. So the NAM will either hit one out of the park here or it will fall flat. Hopefully by later on tonight it comes around to the other models line of thinking and trends whiter and colder and not wetter and warmer-----these setups tend to always disappoint and rarely do they live up to the hype and that is just a fact but this ridiculous cold air that we have in place is literally help drive this thing but-as far as the numbers that you see on your apps = toss them ,,,,,,as far as what the weather guys on TV or social media are saying ,it all depends on which model they follow or trust as the #'s I see them predicting are all over the place,,,,,,,,,,I can say this The National Weather Service is for the most part sticking to their guns and they are very bullish on this storm BUT if you have watched closely these past 2 days they have adjusted and lowered their #'s slightly with each weather statement,,,,,,,,,,,,that said I will take a shot at this because it is what I do - I think most everyone gets snow and most everyone sees a big thump of it,,,start time is always earlier than advertised in these types of setups but most models show it beginning between 2 and 5 am so figure by day break or sooner it is snowing and IMO by 9 am it's getting cranking,,,,and by noon or 1 pm it should come down really hard for 5 or 6 hours again IF NOT SOONER ----BUT BUT BUT does it mix or changeover during that time ? Because if it does then all the #s change ,,,I am not sure where the mixing line winds up as the models have been kind of all over the place at times and I have seen models ( Nam ) show sleet way south and all the way up to Poughkeepsie ----- with that here goes------------> NYC and the 5 boroughs 6-10 is your floor with a much higher ceiling especially IF you do not mix or changeover,,,,,,,Long Island is a tougher call as I will give you the same #'s and scenario as the boroughs but Eastern Long Island I have more concerns with mixing issues,,,,,,,IF you live in South Jersey especially along the coast I think you could may have mixing issues also just as Eastern Long Island does but again this goes for anyone regardless of where u live but all of you should get a big thump of snow before the change over IF the changeover even happens---- IF you start to hear pinging anytime after 12 pm and before 4pm then IMO you are having mixing issues as much of the heavier snow should fall between noon ant 6pm. Central Jersey same #'s 6-10 If you get more be happy if you get less blame me -----------anyone north of the Tappen Zee bridge IMO is looking at a floor of 9 -12 inches with a higher ceiling with no mixing and if you get up towards Monroe, Monticello and farther North Im talking anyone above 84 I think u are looking at 12 to 18 ,,,,,,,,,,,,Cman I did not forget about you as I think you are looking at 9-12 without mixing and again your ceiling is higher,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,Brook as usual is in the bullseye and as usual he gets buried that said I am not sure where Brookj even lives in in Jersey these days lol---------ok I gave it my best shot and If I get it right = look at me and IF I get it wrong it wont be the last time,,,,,,,,,,,ps as I wrote this long mess I cant help but think that I am really concerned about what The NAM has been showing for days because IF it is right then what you just read will not come close,,,,,,,,,we find out soon enough as game time is very close and the players are ion the field
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Brook! still lives in Madison, NJ and goes after Eastern European chicks working at McDonald's in Florham Park.

Brook! · Jan 24, 2026 at 10:30 PM

CBG said: ↑

Brook , legend I am not,,,,,that said Thank You Sir and just pm me your new address and I will mail you a check for saying those nice things about me or if you prefer I can Venmo or Zelle ? BTW after this storm IF IT HAPPENS AS ADVERTISED -----------------------> next week around th 1st or 2nd bears watching but first things first
Click to expand...

I am flying to London for business on February 1st. Any risk?

CBG · Jan 24, 2026 at 10:42 PM

NOVAJET said: ↑

Any info for northern Virginia?
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I could be wrong but the radar makes it appear as if its snowing there right now,,,,,,,,but I don't know if it is making it to the ground yet,,,,that said depends where you are located but methinks 5-9 could be a good guesstimate and again if it mixes with sleet it could get ugly down there and I think northern Virginia will,,,,,,if you don't mix you have a higher ceiling

CBG · Jan 24, 2026 at 10:45 PM

Brook! said: ↑

I am flying to London for business on February 1st. Any risk?
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too soon to tell,,,,,,,as its hard enough pinning down what is gonna happen 8 hours from now never mind 8 days ,,,,,,,ps stay out of Mockey Dees didn't you learn anything from your last court appearance ?

NOVAJET · Jan 24, 2026 at 11:01 PM

CBG said: ↑

I could be wrong but the radar makes it appear as if its snowing there right now,,,,,,,,but I don't know if it is making it to the ground yet,,,,that said depends where you are located but methinks 5-9 could be a good guesstimate and again if it mixes with sleet it could get ugly down there and I think northern Virginia will,,,,,,if you don't mix you have a higher ceiling
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Thanks!

CBG · Jan 24, 2026 at 11:04 PM

NOVAJET said: ↑

Thanks!
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Do u live there ???? IF so whats happening outside your window ?

NOVAJET · Jan 24, 2026 at 11:06 PM

CBG said: ↑

Do u live there ???? IF so whats happening outside your window ?
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I live here, couple tiny flakes here and there currently.

CBG · Jan 24, 2026 at 11:19 PM

NOVAJET said: ↑

I live here, couple tiny flakes here and there currently.
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Stay safe I hope no ice for u

Jay's House of Weather 'n Stuff

CBG Well-Known Member

NOVAJET 2020 and 2025 TGG Fantasy Football Champ

Brook! Soft Admin...2018 Friendliest Member Award Winner

Brook! Soft Admin...2018 Friendliest Member Award Winner

CBG Well-Known Member

CBG Well-Known Member

NOVAJET 2020 and 2025 TGG Fantasy Football Champ

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NOVAJET 2020 and 2025 TGG Fantasy Football Champ

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Jay's House of Weather 'n Stuff

CBG Well-Known Member

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Brook! Soft Admin...2018 Friendliest Member Award Winner

Brook! Soft Admin...2018 Friendliest Member Award Winner

CBG Well-Known Member

CBG Well-Known Member

NOVAJET 2020 and 2025 TGG Fantasy Football Champ

CBG Well-Known Member

NOVAJET 2020 and 2025 TGG Fantasy Football Champ

CBG Well-Known Member

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