Mel Kiper's Big Board (January 14th Edition)

He left Roger Vick off the list....

 

4 of the top 8 are from Ohio State. 5 in the top 17. Not a good look for Coach Ryan Day losing to Indiana.

 

Arvell Reese did not have a good showing against Indiana or Miami.

My hope is that he destroys the combine and someone desperately wants to move up and get him at 2. He has freakish ability and I was big on him early on, but lack of college experience scares me.

It’s similar to the Josh Allen-big arm QB thing. Are we just chasing a Micah Parsons dragon or can he actually be like him? I think he’s a very risky boom or bust prospect.

 

That's the lowest I've seen Bain. I doubt there would be a trade down opportunity, but I think they could get a blue chip player at 2 or at least several down. Reese is the most intriguing though

 

Reese and Bain weren’t/haven’t been all that impressive during the playoffs. Bailey has… but I can’t see how you pass on either of them for Bailey. I’m still all in on the freakish attributes of Reese. Size, speed, strength. It’s all there.

 

Bain was good against Ohio State. He was a ghost against Ole Miss but I think that was more of a function of their gameplan to blitz the nickel/LB and force Trinidad to throw hot into a robber coverage.

Should be interesting to see him against Indiana. They have dominated the LOS against everyone this year and have a bunch of grown men.

 

Unbelievable how bad this draft is to be at 2, there is almost no drop-off from 2-10. I don't see a world where we can trade back so Moug better get this pick right. There are certainly question marks with the pass rushers, I still want one but a guy like Downs is probably safer. Things definitely change leading up to the draft.

 

You’re probably right, it was just jarring to watch the Miami game and forget he existed. Very uncharacteristic. If he has a good game against Indiana He’s going to be a very legitimate choice at two. Especially if they want to ditch one of Will McDonald or Jermaine Johnson so they don’t have to pay them, and replace one of them with a cost controlled asset who could be better than both of them for the next 4 to 5 years.

 

We’ll see. Things always change as we get closer to the draft.

No one foresaw the Texans trading up for Will Anderson a couple years ago or the Jaguars trading up for Travis Hunter last year in December/January. Jalen Carter would’ve been a top 3 pick as of now and then a warrant for his arrest was issued in February after his drag racing car crash.

Teams fall in love/out of love with prospects sometimes for a variety of reasons.

 

Ok Chaptgpt research and quick. I didn't research it that much and I will but quickly why I lean towards Reese is that Defensive ends bust more. Would prefer a lb to set the tone. Can get an edge later I feel but others might feel differently.

"Conclusion: Historically and in modern analytic samples, linebackers drafted in the first round have tended to bust less often than defensive ends/edge rushers, meaning teams generally face lower relative risk drafting LBs early compared with DE/EDGE prospects."

 

I like Bain. I’d take him. He reminds me of Terrell Suggs. But he is going to reportedly have the shortest arms of any defensive end prospect in modern history if he measures where he might.

That scares some teams off.

 

It's a little concerning, he has T-Rex arms. Length is a big deal for DE's, certainly a red flag but not the end all be all. That's probably why he seems lower in a lot of these, could drop a lot at the combine

 

Maybe I’m just overly high on Reese but I’d much rather have 2 than 8 in this draft if you’re the Jets. Trade downs are a unicorn. You see like maybe one huge haul trade down every few years. Otherwise it’s picking up some picks down the road on day 2. Sure that would be great but I think the sky high ceiling of Reese is a better lotto ticket.

 

By my incredibly unskilled eye, I like David Bailey. 14.5 sacks, great size. He's a pass rusher first, but he doesn't seem to get run all over like MacDonald.

I think if he tests well, he'll be considered a top 5 pick, if he isn't already.

 

My other thought. I know defensive end is a premium position. I do feel though a linebacker can set the tone. Going back 20 years Derrick Brooks, Ray Lewis, David Harris. Captains of the d. Set everyone up was all over the field. Feel Reese could be that guy for us. Have Sherwood next to him add an Anzalone to help him transition and the lb core could be good. Add some free agents at dt and de and a safety and the d could be average with the right coordinator.

At 16 go wr. 33 and 44 lean toward offense but best available could be too. See how the process unfolds but a qb in the second round could work. Another benefit Simpson gets a first round grade is there at 16 and we can trade back for more picks and take Chambliss (if his appeal doesn't pan out) or Nussmeir (where he falls) to compete with the veteran or two we sign.

 

Reese has bust written all over him. Vernon Gholston 2.0. Bain, Bailey, and a few others well before Reese.

 

On field production over combine workouts all day, everyday. Bain is too productive and impactful to drop out of the top 10. He doesn't even need to test at the combine. That's for guys who didn't do it on the field when it counts the most.

 

Unless you’re just naming Jet draft busts from OSU, Gholston is a terrible comparison.