With the playoffs around the corner I felt it was time to release my evaluation of the top 4 QBs in the draft this year. I watched around 15 hours of film from full games to extended highlights to come up with my analysis. I’m a high school football coach and in the offseason I love evaluating college quarterbacks coming out for the draft. Hope everyone enjoys my thoughts. Fernando Mendoza - The Heisman winner has compiled an excellent season after his transfer from Cal. It’s hard not to like this kid with his story and the way he carries himself. Strengths - Mendoza has excellent height and elasticity in his arm. His throwing mechanics when his feet are set are pretty good. His anticipation throws are very very good. He has the ability to stand in the pocket go through progressions and delivery the ball with accuracy. Excellent at processing zone and soft zone reads. Has a ton of zip on short/intermediate throws that are delivered with elite accuracy due to his arm elasticity and anticipation. His mobility is decent and maybe underrated as he can definitely step up and pick up a first down if the play breaks down. Tight window wow throws jump off the screen. Has excellent touch on passes outside the numbers and on fade balls. Weaknesses- Needs to be able to detect blitz’s pre snap as he takes a lot of unnecessary sacks. His arm strength is good but not great as he under throws some deep balls on film. His pocket presence needs a lot of work as he hold the ball for far too long scanning through progressions. For his size he needs to get stronger as he goes down far too easily when pressured. His release is decent but not very fast. Struggled when not having his feet set on off platform throws. Overall/Pro Comp/Grade - I feel Mendoza has a high floor and a pro bowl ceiling. His accuracy, anticipation and size will give him a chance to be a solid NFL quarterback. My player comp is Geno Smith who ironically he might replace. I feel he will be a solid starter in the NFL B+ Dante Moore - He has definitely been patient throughout his college career having transferred and getting beat out by Dillon Gabriel last season. He made the most of it this season and put together an impressive year. Strengths - Lighting fast release throwing the football. His quick release just jumps off the screen watching him throw. Good height and arm strength. Off platform throws are very impressive. Throws a nice deep ball with accuracy and zip. Has playmaking ability when the play breaks down. Surveys the field quickly and has a good feel for the game. Weaknesses - Not very fast or athletic. Showed very little leadership qualities on the field. Struggles with short and intermediate throws from the pocket. His poor pocket presence leads to a lot of back yard football plays that sometimes work out and sometimes don’t. Overall/Pro comp/Grade - Lack of starts make him hard to evaluate with such a small sample size of film. I love the kids release but his hero ball mentality scares me. Also is a bit bothersome that Dillon Gabriel easily beat him out last season. However, I feel if he can sit for a season his ceiling can certainly increase. His floor is pretty low if forced to start early in his career. My comp for Dante Moore is Tua mixed with Trey Lance. He’s boom or bust for me and I’ll give him a B- grade. Ty Simpson - Similar to Moore, Simpson has had to wait to start for a while. The only difference is that he was never beating out Milroe and just needed to wait his turn. In his debut season he led Bama to the playoffs and has showed he can lead a team. Strengths - Has incredible vision of the field with lightning speed processing progressions. Very intelligent QB that shows he took his time on the bench to learn the speed of the game. Good mechanics from the pocket, sneaky good athleticism when needed and good arm strength. His accuracy is decent at all 3 levels. His leadership qualities are clear with his command of the huddle. Weaknesses - Simpson doesn’t have too many weaknesses on film he for me does everything good just not great besides how quickly he processes the game. He had some throws that were behind his receiver so the accuracy and anticipation could be better. The small sample size of games might be his biggest weakness. That lack of experience could haunt him if thrown in as a starter day 1. Overall/Pro Comp/Grade - Simpson is an intriguing prospect because he’s just a good solid quarterback. Not too many wow plays yet not too many eek plays either. I think if he sits for a year on a team like the Rams he could be really really good given how smart he is. I’ve never been more confident in this comp as to me he’s a copy of Daniel Jones. Grade B+ John Mateer - Last but not least my favourite prospect in this year’s draft. This kid was incredible at Washington state and decided to go to Oklahoma for the chance to compete for the Heisman, a Natty and max Nil money (3m). Strengths - He’s a gamer that process the game at lightning speed post snap. Elite velocity on his passes at all 3 levels. Athletic ability to run scripted run plays and when plays break down to pick up first downs. Tough as nails as he’s been hit as hard as any quarterback I’ve ever evaluated and he just pops up and keeps going. His teammates love him for this and you can see they follow his lead. His arm strength is effortless as he’s just makes it look easy. His release is fast and his off platform throws are just as accurate as his throws from the pocket. Weaknesses - He’s a bit on the shorter side at 6’1”. He’s Pre snap reads are questionable as a lot of his picks came from him not anticipating disguised blitzes and double team coverages. Plays a little too much hero ball at times. Takes big hits trying to make plays that cost him a broken hand in his throwing arm midway through the season. His throwing motion is a bit low/side arm but there’s no changing that given his accuracy and velocity he gets with it. Overall/pro comp/Grade - Mateer is just straight up fun to watch he truly is a gamer quarterback that isn’t afraid to carry and lead his teammates. I feel he’s the most pro ready out of all the prospects with 3 solid years as a starter. To me he’s a combination of Baker Mayfield and Jaxson Dart. Grade A-
I guess my only question is how do you feel any of these guys would fare on the Jets? It's pretty obvious, short of a major draft pick sale, they aren't getting Mendoza. Unless the Raiders jack that up he's going there. Which leaves the other three. I've read @Jonathan_Vilma, I think, mention he likes Mateer but, if you are correct, and his reads aren't good that's a problem. IMO, reading the defenses is almost nearly 60% of what an NFL QB needs to be able to do. Is that teachable. Wondering your thoughts on who you would prefer, all things available and considered.
Thank you for your analysis. I'm on the Mateer bandwagon now because of you. I may have watched one of his games this season. First game back from a injury he didn't look very good in that game I think it was him. Based on your description of him I get the impression that he's a Brett Favre type? Fun to watch, elite velocity on his passes at all 3 levels, tough as nails, 6'2. That was Brett. Fun to watch we need that around here.
John Mateer….he can’t read defenses at all, and throws terrible INTs. More pro ready than Mendoza???? Mateer vs. Alabama anyone???
I’m a firm believer that ALL rookie QBs should sit at least half a season to get how to operate vs pro defence. Mateer on the Jets would be ugly at times and exciting. He’s a gamer and just the type of player we need. Very much Baker Mayfield and look how long it’s taken Baker to be a good NFL quarterback. The culture here needs to change and the only way to do that is through coaching and players who love the game and are willing to put their body on the line for their teammates. That gains the ultimate respect in a locker room
Yes, this is his largest flaw no doubt about it. I like Mendoza a lot but his pre snap reads also need a lot of work. He gets sacked a ton.
Yes, Favre is the pinnacle of this type of “gamer” player. He also went in the 2nd round from what I remember because of his inability to read defences when he came out. Mateer is a lot more mobile than Favre, Favre had a bigger arm though. Mateer game is almost like a smaller version of Josh Allen.
I never really look at throwing motion a lot because there are a lot of guys with wonky motions that succeed. But Mateer’s throwing motion combined with his height make me nervous. The side arm motion combined with a short guy seems like he’s going to get a lot of balls batted down at the line. It worked for Rivers because he was 6’5”.
It is a concern no doubt about it. I feel his athleticism gives the ability to create passing lanes for him. The ball effortlessly flies off his hand and usually when that’s the case it doesn’t matter who is trying to bat it down. it’s going to be interesting at his pro day/combine to see how his measurables stack up. He’s listed a 6’1” and 225 lb. That’s a pretty solid kid
I like John but my brother is a OU fan so I watched a good amount of games. The hero ball syndrome is true and he throws a lot of picks. He has to be better with his decision making in those situations and he would have much better TD/Int ratio
Yes, the hero ball is definitely real with Mateer. He’s just such a competitor that he feels he can make a play in any situation. Watching Baker right now is just like watching Mateer. Very similar players from arm strength, to size, to playmaking to mistakes. But man I bet anyone on the Bucs would run through a brick wall for Baker.
I would def take him in the second over most of the other guys in the first. My two favorites are Moore and him. But no trades just let the board play out
Mateer played pretty good vs Bama. Especially the first half. The pick 6 was an obvious huge mistake but other than that he was solid. Mateer is more pro ready than Mendoza in my opinion. It’s close though. The 3 years Mateer has started over the 2 Mendoza has started gives him the edge in my opinion
Mateer is not even close than more pro ready than Mendoza. He’s a poors mans Baker Mayfield. You need to watch way more film on Mendoza. This is quite nuts to say.
I’ve watch a lot of film on Mendoza. I like him a lot. He is not more pro ready than Mateer though. It’s close but I give the nod to Mateer. Mendoza takes a lot of sacks and physically is nowhere close to as strong. He goes down very easily. The kid needs to bulk up a bit and work on his balance.
Mateer just runs RPO and throws the ball hard and side arm. He doesn’t have NFL vision at this point to even start. He would be a INT machine. Sorry you can’t play like Brett Favre in today’s NFL. Mendoza completely carved up Alabama (no contest), and easily beat Oregon.
