I don't really understand the Darnold revisionist history. Drafting Wilson was a mistake, yes, but Darnold had 3 awful years with 2 different teams after we let him go. People act like we traded prime Brady. Darnold was a very bad QB his entire career until last year, and the Vikings still elected to let him go even after his career year. I'm still not totally convinced Sam has turned the corner. I'd expect a pretty big regression with the Seahawks this year.
JD brought us Zach Wilson and Aaron Rodgers. The other two were just ineffective while JD put us in cap hell. He was the worst of the three and as more of his players leave the roster we will see just how bad.
And two of the worst drafts in franchise history. He would have been fired much sooner if Garret Wilson and Sauce Gardner hadn't just fallen into his lap in his third draft.
Sam had two bad years surrounding a decent year where he came back from mono to a winning record, got on the same page with Robbie Anderson and ended up with an 84.4 quarterback rating. After his second year we changed his OC again and let his favorite target leave in free agency. He spent a rough two years with the Carolina Panthers before he got coached up as a backup on the 49ers. Last year he went 14-3 with the Vikings. Giving up on the number three overall draft pick after only three years at QB is only something that should happen when the guy is a total headcase. Maybe you put the guy on the bench for a while but three years is far too soon the pull the rip cord. If we were picking first overall and we were taking Trevor Lawrence you might make a case that the guy is special and you can not pass up on a future HOF QB but we were picking second and Zach was clearly the second choice at best and not a once in a lifetime opportunity. Say what you will about Sam but he was a team guy and a straight shooter. Maybe you move on after year four but this was a monumental mistake.
The bulk of the evidence says that 3 years is actually too long. I did a deep dive on this years ago because of Darnold himself ironically. If a QB's first 2 years are as bad as Darnold's were, there is a ~5% chance he will ever become a consistent starter in the league. That's what the data from dozens of different QBs shows, and most of those QBs went to bad teams so the "he had a bad coach/surrounding talent/OC" arguments are meaningless. We should have moved on from Darnold after year 2 if anything.
Just to clarify what I was saying: we had no choice but to move on from Sam after year 3, because he did have 3 bad years. My point was that in year 3 JD gave him historically bad supporting cast, to the point where I do not think ANY young QB in NFL history (he was 23 at the time) had quite as bad of a supporting cast (top 3 weapons he had in 2020 - WR1, TE1, RB1, combined for 300 total yards for the rest of their careers combined on top of garbage OL). JD should have done a lot better for him to at least give a fair chance to evaluate him year 3. Now, he could have failed even with better cast, but JD gave him the worst supporting cast for a young QB in year 3 probably in NFL history. This was more about JD being absolutely terrible GM rather than Sam being great.
See post above - year 3 should've never even happened. A smart team would've acknowledged the data and probabilities after year 2 and traded Darnold to a dumb team who thought they were getting a diamond in the rough.
Sam was a bad case of a QB needs help ending up with a franchise that historically has no idea what to do on the offensive side the ball. There was be very obviously talent there but we did everything to make sure his development was stifled even if Sam wasnt helping himself either.
Ultimately JD did get some value for Sam, so I don't think from the trade perspective this was his worst moment, but according to your findings Josh Allen (same draft class) should have been traded too. That would have been a mistake of historical proportions. Keeping Sam in year 3 was the right thing to do, but he should have been surrounded by better talent to do proper evaluation and not waste a year and possibly lose a good young QB. He just turned 23 in second half of 2020 and never had good supporting cast. And JD made it worse! And yes if he still sucked, then sure, move on, but he should have gotten a chance with better help than the worst supporting cast in NFL history, thanks to JD.
Woody is responsible for the lack of talent pool that we attract when trying to hire a GM and head coach. He didn’t let Idzik bring in any of his own people and mandated he kept Rex/trade Revis. Eric DeCosta and George Paton refused to even take the phone call back then. Imagine knowing an organization is so defunct that you deny even having a conversation for your dream job? One of thirty two on the planet. Insane.
While I completely agree with your take on Sam, we must be reminded that not just JD and Saleh wanted Sam gone, but if my memory serves me right, most of the fan base as well. There is zero patience in NY. We have been under the constant challenge of CS that can’t develop QBs to save their lives with the easy spotlight of blame always focused on the QB.
Darnold is also on his fourth team now in five years. He had one good season with a great coach and probably the best receiving corps in the NFL with a top 2 receiver. Agree with this take. Let’s see how he fairs this year.
With his low salary moving on after year two could still mean putting him on the bench instead of shipping him out. JD wanted to pick his own QB to feel good. He wanted that shiny new thing and made a horrible decision. You could make a case for Lawrence but not for Zach in this situation.
Yeah…if I recall correctly, there were plenty of people who had Zach as the #2 guy behind Lawrence, but while sometimes the #2 QB taken is better than the first guy taken (like the Washington kid being better than Bryant Young who went ahead of him), in this case I don’t think anyone had Zach in Lawrence’s level. But yes there were PLENTY of people who were not buying Zach coming off one good year during COVID in a kind of lower tier school having played a pancake schedule. There were enough signs to say hey he’s not the real deal. JD wanted to reset the clock and take a chance. But not only did he misread the player, he did not set up the player to succeed either…if he knew he was going to be drafting a rookie QB, he damn sure shouldn’t have hired a rookie defensive coach to do it. That choice HAD to be an offensive guy who had experience with QBs. Personally I preferred Daboll at the time, and while Daboll has struggled a lot anyway, I still think he would have been the better choice to develop a QB. But yeah, trading down for multiple picks in that draft was clearly the better choice in hindsight, there were a LOT of people on this board even who were saying the same thing AHEAD of time… JD was a professional being paid to do this. He should have known better.
Totally agree. Moving on from Sam was a huge mistake. He showed a lot of promise, even with a weak roster. I think the Vikings are making the same mistake.
