He average like 140 yards a season his 1st 4 seasons in college, I dunno what the hell the Jets were thinking wasting a pick on him.
We're stupid. We're a stupid organization, run by a stupid trust-fund owner, who hires stupid employees, who make stupid decisions.
He missed chunks of two of those seasons with injury. The other two he was sharing targets with Brock Bowers and Ladd McConkey, who stepped into the NFL and pulled in 2300 yards between them.
Never write a book that long again, I thought I was bad about that shit. haha Thanks for the write up a page back though, made me feel better overall on the pick. I'm trusting this CS and FO. I hope to see something special start to happen this year on offense. I really do.
Was that your thesis paper to get into grad school or a Arian Smith profile? Thanks for the write up man.
I did a little bit of research on him, and listened carefully to what Mooge and AG were saying, and here what I think happened there. I believe they wanted Arian later in the draft. They really targeted Malachi Moore in the 4th round all along. I suspect they wanted Arian in the 5th. However, there was a run on fast WRs right before (Felton, Dike, Thornton were all gone within a few picks before ours), and they felt he will be gone if they don't pick him at 110. Mooge effectively said that much at the presser. I know everyone says he would last until round 6, but this is far from certain. Now, I looked at Georgia's offense, and he seems to be #1 guy there with 871 total yards, including 817 receiving, much higher than #2 guy. They just won SEC and are top 5 team in College Football, and he was a top weapon for them playing against toughest competition. I thought initially he was some scrub, who was fast, but upon further review this does not seem to be the case at all. He seems like a good College player, not some scrub. Drops are an issue, 17% drop rate is Lazard territory, but this is round 4. Chances are he will never be sure handed, but if he can improve to some extent, which is not impossible for a rookie, who only really started 1 year, he does have some special traits to be a good player. With all the drops he does catch 67% of targets for 105 QB rating, which is quite good. This is 4th round we are talking about, so there no sure things and it is uphill battle for everyone picked that low, but the pick does look better to me after learning more about Arian.
I agree with you completely. I like what Gruden said about the kid, he has the things that you can’t teach and his weaknesses can absolutely be corrected. So that is very encouraging. Now it’s a matter of getting him there. Hopefully they can. Seems like he has the mindset to do it from the things AG said about his will power and mindset. That’s encouraging.
Phenomenal write up, thanks a lot! It does make a lot of sense. Even Bowers never crossed 1000 receiving in a season for Georgia, beast season was 942 in 15 games. So, Arian's 817 in 14 games is pretty good considering hat you described about their philosophy. It sounds like AG and Mooge really liked him and Kyle Williams, whom they both had for top 30 visit. Kyle was snatched in round 3 before our pick, but they did get Arian, and there is hope there after all. Again, keeping it in perspective: this is a 4th round pick. Not #7 overall or top of the second. You take a shot in the 4th at someone who has potential but will have some issues, and hope he fixes them. I think Arian can, and rooting for him as well.
Thank you Borat for your previous post, very enlightening. It makes me wonder, over 800 yards with a 17% drop rate. I also read that him and QB had problems getting on the same page. If they could have solved that issue even in part, he would have easily exceeded 1000 onna run heavy team. Sounds like AG believes they can fix that part of his game. Hold my fingers crossed. Hope him, Malachi and JF bond quickly. That would rock.
Initially after I saw the drop rate and some other reports even from reputable folks, like Connor Rogers, I thought the guy was a total Butterfinger scrub who just runs fast. Plus old - turning 24 in Oct and injury prone. Basically a 6/7th round / UDFA type. But upon further review, he was no scrub at all but by far the best weapon on the best SEC team, top 5 in the nation. The numbers were not far off from Brock Bowers on the same team and 67% completion on all targets in spite of drops. Plus healthy last two years after he quit track and field to focus on football. also, as crazy as it sounds last year drop rate was 27%, though on a small sample size, so 17% is a big improvement. The drops are real though, there is no getting away from that, but maybe he can improve some there, it's certainly not unreasonable. He started only one year in Georgia and made big improvements from 2023. Age is also real, but again, this is 4th round we are talking about and he can still improve some at 24. Do I think he will be a Jameson Williams? Probably not, but Jameson went 100 picks higher, top 12. It's quite possible and likely he won't succeed and we will have to address WR in the next draft. That's the fate of most 4th round picks. But, upon closer look, Arian is worth a shot where we took him, and value wise in the 4th round about right. Maybe a little lower would be more ideal but it's in the ballpark. I am good with this pick and rooting for him.
Last-ish addition to Arian Smith Unabridged: The UGA Years, just to illustrate my point that to get a full picture of Arian Smith, you can’t really look at his college career alone. Georgia used him primarily for his downfield speed and didn’t take full advantage of his skills, especially when Bowers was around. I pulled up the video of his junior season, when he played multiple positions on both sides of the ball and special teams. And here’s his senior season, after he transferred to a more competitive program and settled in exclusively at WR. Btw, in the later season clips, you’ll see him playing with a heavily taped wrist. That’s the fracture at the top of the “injury prone” list that was surgically repaired when he enrolled at UGA. https://www.hudl.com/profile/13165040/arian-smith Yes, it’s high school, but is that the player you read about in predraft profiles? Doubt it.
It is technically possible. One example is Darius Slayton for the Giants. He dropped everything at Auburn. They have coached him to be more reliable in the NFL. Maybe that's what they were thinking with this pick
He is thinking how Jameson improved. https://www.mlive.com/lions/2024/01...most-improved-players-hes-getting-better.html "Williams went from leading the league in drops coming out of Week 8 (despite missing four games) to not dropping a single pass from Week 9 through last weekend’s NFC title game loss in San Francisco." Last season 3 drops on 91 targets. It is all possible. Whether it is likely or not is another question, we are just going to have to see. But Jaimo looks to have improved drastically in that area.
We’ll see I’m skeptical Drafting receivers who can’t catch is not a good way to do business I loved our first two picks and in hindsight, I’d have preferred to go WR in round 3 and then DT in round 4, but we’ll see If AG is good with the corner and he plays up to that then that may turn out to be a good pick after all, but I don’t like drafting slow corners much more than I like drafting WRs who drop a lot of balls This coaching staff hasn’t proven they can coach anything up yet so we’ll have to wait and see, and granted, if these two players do develop, then hats off to AG and team and I’d be happy to eat my words I’m rooting for them, just like I’m rooting for Fields, but honestly I’m more skeptical than optimistic on all three of these guys that Mouge and AG have staked a lot on
They most likely could have gotten him with a later pick. There were much better players on the board when they took him. Apparently he is not a great route runner either ( but it could be due to how GA used him). I see him as a role player who will be used to draw away coverage, with an occasional deep shot thrown his way. He does not show signs of being a true number 2 receiver, unless he develops a lot more. Hopefully, they trade for a true number 2, or we might be seeing a lot of Lazard this year
I heard most people saying we should have gotten Royals instead. Connor Rogers gave him second round grade. Let's who has a better career. But as far as our WR room, I don't see any more changes aside from UDFA/bottom level players. Lazard/Josh/Arian/Corley/Johnson will battle for 2-6 spots.
