And yet at the same time you ignore that the same rule of thumb holds for TEs. Yes, I understand that you consider Bowers some kind of mythical beast that transcends his position traits, and maybe he is, but there have been other TEs in the past who were billed this way and flopped - or didn't live up to their hype.
The same rule of thumb does not hold for TEs. OLs work out at higher rates in mid rounds than any other position.
We'll just have to agree to disagree on this one. I wouldn't touch Nabers with a 10-foot pole. I don't really care for Odunze. I think he is going to be much less effective in the NFL because he can't get separation and I don't see much in the way of even good route running, and he's not that fast. IMO the pick should be OT. Protecting Rodgers should be the #1 priority. What good will it do if the Jets draft Odunze or Bowers and they wind up being great, but Rodgers suffers another major injury and is out for the year or just decides to hang the cleats up? None is the correct answer, because we know this team can't develop a young QB, and we'll just be going with more re-tread vets at QB who aren't worth a damn or who are in their late 30s. IMO Malachi Corley, Xavier Leggette or Roman Wilson would be a great addition to the Jets' WR room and along with an OT in the 1st round would do more to help the team this year and going forward then taking Odunze or Bowers in the 1st round and then not getting a good OT that can help them this year or be a quality starter going forward. The Jets would have to be incredibly lucky to wind up getting one of Amegadjie, Paul and Suamataia at #72, and they sure as hell wouldn't get one of them if they traded up to take a WR. The running game is important, but protecting Rodgers again should be the #1 priority. Therefore if Fashanu is there at #10 he should be the pick unless somehow the Jets are convinced that Fautanu or Fuaga would be better. I'd even be happy with a trade down and taking Guyton or Mims. I want no part of Latham. The only way that I'd be happy with a WR pick in the 1st round is if JD somehow acquires a 2nd round pick and then takes one of Suamataia, Paul and Amegadjie; otherwise, I'll want his ass fired immediately.
I'm still confused, and I pointed this out a few days back but never got a reply. If an OT is a stud because we are taking him top 10 then why is a TE not a stud?
Actually I disagree with that. if Rodgers, coming off a season where he lasted 4 plays behind this offensive line, thinks that his best way to make noise is by avoiding the o-line, he is kind of a dummy IMO. I would think he would be pounding the table for O-line selection as Brady did in Tampa -- all of this is to say I think "Tony Vegas" is wrong, I think Rodgers is thinking/involved in a million other things ahead of draft scouting lol and has minimal impact to who the Jets select tonight.
I dunno, if my window was almost closed I would be asking for another weapon, not a guy that ideally doesn't even play this year (I know Smith won't play 17 games). I also don't think its a coincidence that they waited until Rodgers was in the building to have Bowers make his visit.
Yes, I understand the preference, but you have to look at value too. Sometimes the value is too much to pass up. If Alt is there at 10, he needs to be the pick. We do disagree on several items, but there is a lot of common ground too. My preference would be an OT for the reasons you described. Now, I do have specific OTs in mind: Alt, Olu, Latham. I understand you do not like Latham, but I suspect Latham and Alt will be gone and Olu might be there. We would then both pick Olu. We disagree on Fuaga and Fautanu. Fautanu is 24 years old this year and for his age I don't think he was dominant enough. On top of that he is short and wildly inconsistent based on what I have seen. I think he is a solid guard prospect. Maybe he can play OT, but I am not confident. Fuaga is slow and has short arms. To me this is a great guard prospect, not OT. I want a guy I can be confident in can be LT, and Fuaga and Fautanu are not it. I could draft them on a trade down, because they are very talented guard prospects but I would much prefer a true OT. When it comes to weapons, again, I would prefer OT, but I can understand why JD would pick a weapon, and I think that's what he will do. While we agree OT insurance is more critical, I think JD may be thinking we can get someone like Cam Fleming, Bakh, etc in the market as a back-up. And we are weak at WR too and need an actual starter there. So again, do I prefer one of the 3 OTs, yes. Do I understand JD going with Nabers and Odunze - also yes. Odunze to me has a huge red/orange flag of not being able to separate. And I have watched multiple all 22. But I do think he can be a young more athletic Mike Williams with the upside, which makes him a good prospect. Ideally he is a top 15 guy, maybe going a few spots below 10, but it's close enough. Bowers, we discussed at length, a top 20 guy, not my preferred choice at 10. Nabers is a different story, Nabers reminds me of J Chase. If we can get a guy like that, I am simply unable to resist. He is probably the most dominant WR in College football now, and is 20 years old, at least a year younger than all other guys we are talking about.
To me, it's best available at the position of need. And there is a need at OT (more than you realize) and WR. Then it comes down to a prospect. Even if you make a case for Bowers being a slot receiver, Alt > Bowers. Nabers > than OTs we can get at 10. Odunze is in the mix with some of them, so could be a decent selection, depending on who is there.
The Jets have a massive hole in their roster construction going forward at LT behind a 1 year guy who at best can give you 3/4 a season. Who do you like in this draft to fill that spot that you believe will still be there in the 3rd round or latter? And if he doesn't work out are you going to to just cry in hindsight about the GM sucking for making that pick bet latter?
Sorry, but I think that's utter nonsense. How many great OTs can you name in the NFL who were mid-round picks? I'll bet very few. The only decent LT likely to be available in the 3rd round is Rosengarten, and even he may go in the 2nd round. I wouldn't waste a mid-round pick on the likes of Goncalves,Glaze, Fisher, Foster, and the others. With them, it's not just a matter of lack of technique or experience, it's a lack of talent or athleticism, and with some technique or experience as well. One cannot lump in OTs with OGs and Cs. That's absurd. Yes, one can find good OGs and Cs in the 3rd and 4th rounds, but not OTs, at least not very often. Thinking one can just grab an OT in the 3rd or 4th round and that will be sufficient is laughable.
If we go with a weapon, we are going to have to sign someone or trade for someone. I don't think it is wise to count on a 3d round OT to start. Which is what our 3d OT will have to do for at least half a season with the two old guys we have at OT as starters. Even Moses who was an iron man started to break down last year. So, it will have to be Cam Fleming, Bakh, or someone along these lines.
I understand that, but this is a win-now year. If JD values his own job, he's going to pick someone who is likely to contribute this season. I can see us taking an OT if we trade down, but there's no chance if we don't.
I'd actually be more tempted to bet that Aaron Rodgers doesn't get anywhere near to as enamored as the outside GFIN paper theorists do with the prospects of a first year rookie WR/TE contribution. I also believe Rodgers likely values the projectable health and sustainability aspects going in to his O-line construction a lot more then you apparently do. In fact I'd go as far as to imagine that he's probably spent a lot more of his own time behind the scenes advocating for an additional vet add guy like OBJ if we can somehow work him into the current cap situation in a reasonable manner.
What's the basis for this opinion other than... your opinion? I'm basing mine on an actual report: https://www.si.com/nfl/jets/news/ne...ting-rodgers-decide-brock-bowers-option-brad9 Jeremy Fowler of ESPN reported that an interesting wrinkle has also been added to this equation. "So, if they're doing the long play they might take an offensive tackle or something that's not as sexy and play for the long future but they're all in now so if Rodgers wants a tight end, he might get his guy," he said on SportsCenter. It's the last part of what he said that is really eye catching. What Fowler is saying is that New York will basically take whoever Rodgers wants them to take at that pick, and if it's Bowers, then he will be the selection.
What was Fowler actually "reporting" on there? He's literally just self inserting Bowers there instead of an OT pick that could work equally well if that is what he wanted to push across within that "if that is what Rodgers wants" implication (that purposely isn't making any actual claim of what Rodgers wants) That is just standard click bait farming stuff that is par for the course this time of year. Nothing more imo.
Fautanu was not dominant because he was getting by relying almost totally on his athleticism. His technique is very raw. He gets some good coaching from Carter (who has developed good OL before) and watches and learns from Smith and Moses, and he could be every bit as good as Fashanu. The only negative is that he is 24 and maybe has a knee problem. Fuaga's arms are 33 1/8, and there are other very good OTs in the NFL whose arms are that short. Fuaga is not that slow. He has prototypical size for an OT. He has quick feet, but his feet and upper body aren't always in sync. Some good coaching on technique should resolve that. I have some question as to whether he can play LT, but others do not, and there is not the gulf between LTs and RTs that used to exist. Teams move their pass rushers around, and oftentimes, the best rusher may be coming from the right side of the OL. OTs are expected to be more interchangeable and be able to play either side. That doesn't mean that all of them can or should. Even if Fuaga didn't work out at LT he could be a very good RT imo. Still, I prefer OTs that are more athletic, so I prefer Fashanu, Fautanu, Mims, Guyton, Amegadjie, and maybe even Paul and Suamataia over Fuaga, but I readily admit that I may be too influenced by you and those who question whether he should be at OG. Others have no doubt at all and have Fuaga as the 2nd or 3rd best OT prospect in the draft. I just haven't seen enough video of any of them yet to rank them that definitively. Latham's weight and propensity to hold, along with the history of Alabama OL in the NFL are the main reasons I don't like him. I'm also curious why he didn't participate in any of the events at the Combine as I don't think he was injured. If one compares their athleticism it's interesting. I compiled a spreadsheet based on the stats given on nfl.com for each of the top OT prospects. They are below. Joe Alt 5.05 1.73 28" 9'4" 7.31 4.51 27 6.49 85 Kiran Amegadjie 6.25 78 Olu Fashanu 5.11/4.97 1.77 32" 9'1" 6.45 79 Troy Fautanu 5.01 1.71 32.5" 9'5" 6.47 87 Taliese Fuaga 5.13 1.77 32" 9'3" 6.48 81 Tyler Guyton 5.19 1.76 34.5" 8'11" 7.5 4.71 6.41 81 JC Latham 6.71 79 Amarius Mims 5.07 1.78 25.5" 9'3" 6.42 77 Patrick Paul 5.13 1.77 29" 7.65 30 6.22 79 Kingsley Suamataia 5.04 1.74 28 9'2" 31 6.17 82 Sorry, I can't get Google Docs to work right and can't paste an excel spreadsheet here, but the categories from left to right are as follows: 40-Yard Dash, 10-Yard Split, Vertical Jump, Broad Jump, 3 Cone, 20-Yard Shuttle, Bench Press, nfl.com prospect rating, and athleticism score. It's curious to me that there are no stats on Latham Shuttle, 3-Cone, 40 yard dash, Broad Jump. He refused to participate. That makes me suspicious. He's supposedly down to 342, but his weight could balloon back up to 360 pretty easily. Which could lead to injuries and making him slower. Amegadjie is recovering from injury, so it's understandable why he doesn't have all the scores on the different Combine events. Looking at the scores in this spreadsheet, the rankings are puzzling. Most of the scores on the 40-yard dash, 10-yard split, vertical jump, and the broad jump are close/similar. Many didn't do the bench press, 3 cone, or 20-yard shuttle. The Prospect grades and the athleticism scores don't match imo
