Good post. They were also strongly considering Jahmyr Gibbs last season, which to me says that JD is arrogant and can't evaluate OL talent if he trusted in the scrubs we had at OT last season.
I just don’t trust oversized Georgia and Alabama offensive linemen at all. I try not to look at school history for most positions but it’s a little bit easier to look at offensive lines since they work as a group. They are always as a group so much fucking bigger than everyone that it’s like a wall of mass and they dominate. The recent history isn’t great for them outside of Andrew Thomas who as a standalone was an incredible prospect with great feet.
I think OT makes the most sense, still hard to draft a player in a win now year that will start the season on the bench. I would be fine with a WR or OT, preferably not Bowers. History is not on his side unfortunately and until a 1st round TE proves otherwise I just can't justify it. Honestly I am firmly on the trade back wagon.
OT is far from set. Anyone who thinks that is delusional. Smith is going down for an extended time this season. You can make book on that. It would be nothing short of a miracle for him to play 17 games or even 16. You're right that JD is likely to do the wrong thing. Counting on Warren to fill in for Smith would definitely fall in that category imo. That's why I will want him gone if he screws up this draft by not getting us a really good LT prospect that can step in and play this year, and then be our LT for the next 10-15 seasons. There is absolutely no reason that he should not be able to do that. and if he were a topflight GM, he would find a way to get the Jets 2 starting-caliber OTs AND a really good WR prospect out of this draft. As far as I'm concerned he could have a 6- player draft: 2 OTs, 2 WRs, IOL depth & #2 RB. I don't care if he has to use a 2025 draft pick or two to help make that happen. I do see logic in taking Bowers. Someone posted stats on recent SB winners. They had a great TE and varying levels of WRs. With Bowers and G. Wilson we would have the receiving talent we needed if we had the OL talent to protect Rodgers and open holes for Breece and our RBs. Adding a playmaker/weapon on offense could help take pressure off of G. Wilson. Further, since Bowers has taken most of his snaps from the slot, it would mean that the Jets don't have to add a slot WR or play Lazard. The following is from an article in the draft forum that Trainer posted: https://sports.yahoo.com/brock-bowe...ma-hes-also-worthy-of-the-hype-012737605.html The stat about YAC is one that I'm sure the Jets will take notice of, as that is something they want in their WRs. I'm not advocating to take Bowers, because as you said the consequences of not being able to protect Rodgers would undermine the season. It wouldn't matter if we could add Bowers and one of the top 4 WRs to the team, if Rodgers goes down for an extended period of time, the season goes down the drain. I just wanted to point out that a very strong, logical case can be made for drafting Bowers, just as it can for drafting any of the top WRs. It's just that particularly given that our LT is injury prone, and likely to miss at least one-fourth of the season, we need to have a solid, healthy backup, and we need a starter going forward in 2025 because Smith will be too expensive to extend/re-sign. Giving that future LT the opportunity to watch and learn from both T. Smith and M. Moses, makes it a no-brainer and the wisest course of action.
Unfortunately there are 31 other teams in the same position. If any teams starting QB went down 4 plays in not one would be thinking super bowl and playoffs would be a reach. Our QB is just old af lol.
That's the funny thing about taking an OT in the 1st. In a win-now, all-in year, drafting an OT would mean using a top 10 pick on someone who ideally wouldn't play in 2024 - it's an insurance and future pick. But given the high likelihood of injury for at least one OT spot and AVT given the history, it seems very likely that backup OL will be playing often again this year. It would also be nice to really see JD thinking beyond 2024 and planning for the future of the OL. Of course, maybe we'll get some good luck finally and our OL will stay healthy and Tyron Smith and Morgan Moses can be thought of as starters here beyond this year. But I'd rather be prepared for injuries and the future compared to last year when we got annihilated by injuries
Yep, except as you pointed out, we have the oldest QB, and we have an injury-prone LT who is on the wrong side of 30. That's why I think JD can't get cute or greedy in the 1st round. If Fashanu is there at #10 take him. Use 2025 draft capital to trade up or in combination with pick #72 if need be. I'd be ecstatic with a draft of Fashanu at #10, Leggett with the 2nd round pick, and IOL depth and one of Estimé. Davis, and Allen in the 4th round.
Yeah, my stance that I wanted OT in the first but wouldn't be screaming at my TV in the event we draft Bowers has been hardening into a firm NO on anything but OT lately. Too much deja vu going on for me with surrounding sense that the Jets are buying into their overly-inflated hype, and seeing 2023 for a lot better of a GFIN opportunity then it realistically is (regardless what Vegas decides to get the suckers for again on the opening line this team is NOT a good odds bet to make the playoffs in the current field that doesn't include an injured Joe Burrow). Which in turn just ups on the odds of them getting this pick wrong by reaching for something that essentially isn't even there. At this point I don't trust a trade back even enters Joe's D's mind either. OT is the pick. No actual debate on that here once you acknowledge that we are a "if he plays 13 games that is a GREAT seasonal outcome for him" Tyron Smith injury away from basically having the whole offensive picture going back to shit. Especially with the OC we have who is just simply NOT going to be successful here if he has to be cute or creative. Hackett and this offense, probably more then any other in the NFL, is only going as far as this O-Line is able to carry him and his VERY advanced age QB. Until this team legitimately fixes the line anything we do on offensive, and any pick skill position guy we draft, is basically going to more or less fail regardless. With a best case scenarios like Garrett Wilson putting up one of the ugliest uphill battle and low actual impact 1000 yard seasons you'll ever see. Like this idea we are going to draft another stud WR, and that guy is going to open up and create some success window opportunity for both of them in the event the line plays like crap, is complete fantasy. That is not is going to play out in the Hackett offense and with a 41yo game manger QB having to work behind a constantly failing 0-lin. That most likely just re-creates a lot of 2023.. Don't be cute and don't look too far ahead. Just take the OT.
I would be OK with picking LT at 10 or trading down to get a LT and a receiver with the 1st 2 picks. Hell, if they traded down and took a tackle with both their 1st 2 picks I would be ok with it. Rogers needs to be protected above all else. There were guys running wide open all over the field last year and our quarterbacks just couldn't get them the ball (mostly because they all sucked.) Guys will be open this year, too. We just need to keep Rogers upright long enough to get them the ball. We know he's one of the most accurate passers ever, and sees the field really well. Give him time and we will be set.
I’m on board with this line of thinking … OT would be my first choice…I can get my head around a trade down to recoup either a 2nd or 3rd and then take OT/WR with a combo of our first two picks, preferably OT first…I would be a bit disappointed in going WR but depending on what else we do for OL, can maybe live with it. I’m not in on Bowers…there are very few TE difference makers in the league…you have Kelce, Kittle, and not sure what comes after that. First round TE’s don’t typically live up to the hype, and while I get he’s a weapon, I just think we are good enough at TE with Conklin and Ruckert and I just think first round HAS to be OT or WR. Just HAS to be. Preferably OT.
Im still not on the TE but the argument is easy. The 4 Conference championship teams last year had arguably the 4 best TEs in the game. Lions- LaPorta Ravens- Andrews Cheifs- Kelce 49ers- Kittle That said not a single one was a 1st round TE.
Voilà. Drafting a TE with a premium pick is dumb as fuck. I think it's either a top LT, a top WR or trade down.
Carter Warren, FA, or you draft a T later In the draft. Multiple ways to skin a cat... Also.. If our GM Is worth his salt, at some point, he's going to have to start finding some of these OL pieces In the later rounds to round out our OL. All the good teams do. Hoping for a line made up of all 1st round talent Isn't realistic for any team.
What more argument against taking Bowers with #10 do you need? In the most simple and basic terms: the OL has to be fixed once and for all to withstand the inevitable injuries that will happen. There are no caveats to this, or alternative POVs that erase what we've all seen for the past decade and a half since we had a good OL. Don't get me wrong, I'm all for high flying offense, but if we don't have a solid OL to protect Rodgers, we're done. Dream all you want about the great offense we could have by drafting Bowers or one of the top WRs, but that's all it will be - dreams, not reality. There are only two course of actions for a smart GM to take here: If one of the top 2 stud Tackles are there at #10 you take him; if not, you trade back and look to get one of the "2nd tier" Tackles with the later 1st round pick, and then you can use your recently obtained 2nd round pick on a WR (NOT a TE). That's it. Don't over think this, or talk yourself into screwing up.
No. I think Odunze Is much better. The top 3 are In a tier of their own. IMO Brian Thomas Jr has a really high ceiling but a really low floor. He's a boom or bust type of receiver and that scares me away. He has the perfect body type and athletic traits you want In a WR but so did Denzel Mims. We know how that turned out. Thomas Is very raw, complacent at times, and his route running gave me a headache. Then you throw In the lack of experience, I just don't like him for us as a prospect. Some of that Is that I don't trust this coaching staff with him, but I mostly just don't like how raw he Is overall. I would never take him at #10 though. On a whim... I'd say his floor is Denzel Mims and his ceiling is a Tee Higgins. For me, he's not even a top 5 WR In this years draft. I'd pass unless we trade back.
How far would the Jets have to trade down in the 1st Round to get a 2nd Round pick back? If it’s not too far, I would consider doing that.
We are on the same page here as far as drafting OT early. I have been beating this drum for two years now non stop. If somehow Alt or Olu are there, I am running to the podium. The problem I am seeing is if they are not there. The biggest problem we have is Smith at LT. I know some say Fuaga can play RT, some say Guard, but no one said he will play at LT. With his slower feet at pass pro and shorter arms, that's out of the question. Then what happens when inevitably Smith will get hurt? Fuaga is not an option at LT. IMO neither is Fautanu. Less dominant season than guys 3 years younger (like Latham) and below 6-4, I am not taking him at 10. Latham at 10 is a possibility, but seems a bit rich. Then what? I would try to trade down and then get Latham, Mims, or some of the other guys who have physical capabilities to play LT. Latham is particularly attractive on a trade back because he has played a lot of ball and played LT in HS. While still just turned 21. Not sure what you guys would do if both top LTs are gone and you still have the 10th. But in this case if trade down is not possible, JD will be in a tough spot, exactly like last year when he pissed away Broderick Jones on a pick swap. Which is what makes me scared he will take Bowers, which to me would be a monumental fuck up, akin McD last year.
Drafting a TE at 10 is dumb but drafting an OT at 10 as injury insurance isn't. Make it make sense. I'd also reiterate that OL picks in later rounds work out at higher rates than any other position.
The problem there is that belief is based more on just general assumption being thrown out to fit the optimistic narrative, and with no real effort behind it to pin down exactly how that happens or what it actually looks like on paper. The other devil in the supposed trade down room is the very real possibility JD just ends up repeating the similar mistake he made last year. Where you just end up maneuvering yourself out of a position to get a guy you actually wanted when it turns out the clickbaiting mocks were wrong, and a lot of these flashier QB -4-6 reaches and WR picks don't actually happen. We all may love the trade down as a concept here, but how much do you still love it if there is a run on OT after Alt/Fash and popular consolation options like Fuaga/Mims/Latham are all gone too by the time that trade down pick goes on the clock? Do you currently trust or have any real desire to put Joe D in that spot after last year if it came down to that? I don't. And neither does a single soul out there who has spent anytime working in TV, and who can actually recognize one of the most obvious post production edit adds on a feel good fluff piece you'll ever see that conveniently absolved Joe D of the massive amount of bad PR they got post-draft on that being a panic pick. Again, no cuteness. Just pick OT lol
As noted above, I've actually simplified my take on all that down to the following: The more overall thought that has to go into the pick, the less confidence I have with Joe D and co getting it right. I mean i get it. We'd all love to add that extra second round pick. But more then that, imo, we need to hit on this OT pick and come out of it with a sticking solution. Whatever makes that more probable is the way to go there for this FO.
