Events in Russia

It was only a matter of time. Totalitarianism in the information age doesn't seem like it has the same half-life or staying power.

 

Russia / Wagner Civil War?

 

Looks like it’s already fizzled.

 

I’ll be very surprised if this is the end of the story.

 

Fuck Putin.

 

Putin knows who was leaning each way in his little war game. This was likely a pre-emptive move planned by him to highlight the people leaning away from him for later disposal.

 

. . No thanks

 

If he was that smart, he wouldn't have invaded Ukraine in the first place. He had a rebellious "general" on his hands, and they cut a deal. Most likely all there was to it.

 

Well, we'll know soon enough. If Prig is dead in the next couple of weeks it was a rebellion and if he isn't it was just a sham show.

 

Putin's plane took off from Moscow heading to one of his homes in Valdai and then disappeared from radar.

Guessing they just turned off tracking but I'll keep watch on this for my 30 points in the Death Pool, well probably be 50 points since if he goes he is likely taken out and be adding the 20 points for a murder.

 

I think Putin has been weakened a bit whether it was his game or not.

Other names are popping up now in relation to the power structure in Russia and that was never the case before.

 

It was only a matter of time before something like this happened. As powerful as Putin is, the oligarchs control Russia way more than he does. And I would imagine Prigozhin is very well connected in that circle.

Short term, sanctions didn’t do much and India and China ate up that cheap Russian fuel. Long term, the Russian people and wealthy will view this as a dumb land grab.

Someone needs to bring Russia and Ukraine to the table and carve up the Donbas and Donetsk regions and call it a day. Neither side is winning and both are losing. It’d be great if the US could be the unbiased party to broker that deal.

 

Russia has been in a recession since November, billionaires in Russia have lost 20% of their wealth which is about 4 times as much as the rest of the worlds billionaires in the same time frame, oil was 30-35% of Russia's budget prior to sanctions and now accounts for about 22% even though they are exporting about 10% more of it, their economy shrunk by about 3.4% instead of increasing by that amount which was the previous estimate. They built protections into their economy for situations such as this so it has taken a while for the effects of the sanctions to be felt but they are working from what I am seeing.

Carving up Donbas would be rewarding Russia for starting the war so not sure why Ukraine would agree to that.

 

Prighozin still not heard from since the deal was announced. His whereabouts unknown.

 

Do you have sources? I’d like to read. They lost tons of money at the onset of the sanctions. The national GDP is back up as of March.

https://www.statista.com/statistics/1009056/gdp-growth-rate-russia/

I should correct my statement as of course it hurt them in the short term (1-2 years). Long term they’ll be fine. They have an infinite supply of oil and they collaborate with the Saudi’s at all times to manipulate prices while they also have the two most populated countries in the world (China and India) filling their bellies with Russian oil.

The longer it goes though, the more unrest within the power structure will happen which I believe is what Ukraine is banking on.

Ukraine is a very large country. The Donbas is a disputed territory because there are a ton of ethnic Russians there. Carve the territory up and run out the clock until Putin dies (doubt he’s that far away).

What’s the alternative? Sacrifice hundreds of thousands more Ukrainians over a territory of people where maybe 50% might really not want to be apart of your country? Not to mention the longer the war goes, the more money they’re gonna gobble up from us and you and me the tax payer.

 

He could still survive even if it was a rebellion. Putin isn't omnipotent.

 

Usually an unbiased resolution is going back to the pre-war borders.

 

Not untrue but you’re discounting the fact that the west has been pushing Ukraine to join NATO for quite some time which was a redline for Russia. Imagine if Russia tried getting Mexico to join an alliance as their primary trade partner and started funding their military like we have Ukraine?