Predict the pick for Aaron Rodgers

Woody said he would give up 2 1sts for Arod, JD does not feel that way . Who has more power and control at this point I bet JD does not want Arod at all, it is all Woody and it will be interesting to see who wins the power struggle Arod is so not a JD player

 

Agreed. The best offer should be already on the table. When the draft rolls around, GB will have no choice but to take it. Btw, I think the offer has been on the table for a while. They are probably milking until the draft, since they hope to get a little more on a draft night, squeeze slightly more out of JD with the draft as the deadline, since the offer will have to change after that. Smart play by GB to get the absolute most they can, but I think JD just needs to stay put, and on the draft day GB will accept whatever he already offered, especially if it includes a 2nd round pick.

 

Well said. And I think this is what JD is doing. He gave them an offer and waiting for Packers to come back.

 

Yup…at this point, this deal isn’t getting done until draft day most likely…and it could be before Day 2 starts…I don’t think JD is giving up our first round pick and the Packers GM already said as much.

So it doesn’t have to happen until Day 2 starts…we have 2 early second round picks and they will most likely want one of those, so I think that’s the real deadline.

Until then, this is a game of chicken…and yeah, he may be a hall of fame legendary QB and all that jazz, but he’s 40 years old and was 90% retired by his own admission…hard to see how GB thinks he’s worth so much more…honestly, even one 2nd round pick is a high price, but in the end, I’d do it…that pick gets you pretty much almost a guaranteed playoff spot unless we get another crazy rash of injuries.

I’d be willing to do conditional 2024 picks as well, but the conditions should go both ways…can become a first rounder if we win the Super Bowl with AR, but can also be nothing if we miss the playoffs. I also like the idea of a pick back in 2025 if AR decides to only play one year and then retire

As much as GB wants more, they really just don’t have leverage…the only leverage they have is hoping that JD will not say fuck off and go get Bridgewater (probably the only semi-decent option left outside of a different trade). It’s not much really

At this point, this deal should already have happened since all three parties want it to happen. GB is definitely the hold up here and they are playing their cards hoping Woody gets impatient and does something stupid (which is always a good bet by the way)

So I think this deal goes down right before the draft…either the night before Day 1 or the night before Day 2 at the latest

 

I’m starting to think we’re not giving up a pick this year at all. My prediction is Corey Davis, a conditional 3rd next year, and a conditional 4th the following season. If we make playoffs it becomes a 2nd next year. If we win the SB it’s a 1st. Same type of escalators for the following year except if Rodgers retires before the season it will just be the 4th rounder of that year.

 

Without going back through all the posts in all the related threads, can someone refresh my memory. If Rodgers retires does he still get his money from GB?

If so, then they Packers have no real leverage. AR can just refuse to agree to being traded anywhere he doesn't want.

If not, then they do have some leverage. If he can't retire and the Packers don't trade him to the Jets (or anywhere else he agrees to), he has to show up for GB. At that point the Packers may decide they might just as well run it back with him as the starter and therefore would not have any reason - or pressure - to trade him. Of course the relationship might be so poisoned between them that this scenario isn't possible, but who knows.

From the Jets end, I assume that Douglas is looking at all the alternatives besides Rodgers. One interesting one popped up in a report in today's NY Post:

https://nypost.com/2023/04/04/bill-belichick-is-really-pissed-off-and-shopping-mac-jones-in-a-trade/

I doubt BB would agree to trade him to the Jets, but if he's pissed enough, maybe he would. OTOH, I don't know if Douglas would want a guy he passed on in the same draft as Zach, and frankly I'm not sure it's a good move if they plan on keeping Zach, but again I mention it because it's a potential option.

The only thing that's certain that until the Jets nail down their QB situation, nothing else will make much difference.

 

No, if Rodgers retires he forfeits over $59 Million

The Packers still would take a significant cap hit but interestingly they have options for modifying that, particularly if he retires after June 1. (see January article below). Retirement after June 1, with a classy send off, is probably the best case scenario for the Packers, which is why they told him to think about it, most likely.

Unless of course a team is dumb enough to take that contract and give them a 1st round pick, then that easily becomes the best case for the Packers.

https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/agents-take-how-aaron-rodgers-future-decision-affects-the-packers-bottom-line/

 

Thanks. After reading that article my head is spinning. I'm still not sure I fully understand all the ramifications. One question is:

- In order to get the best CAP relief, GB would have to have AR agree to renegotiate his contract to allow him to retire after June 2? Seems unlikely he'd be willing to do that at this point. So, if GB tries to obstruct what Rodgers says he wants to do - play for the Jets - he could just retire. Sure he'd give up the $59M, but maybe he's wealthy enough to do that. Given the way he seems to view conventional thinking and behavior, and the money he's already earned, he might well choose this path just to screw GB.

Since his contract seems guaranteed to handcuff GB, they must have been certain when they agreed to it that Rodgers would be a Packer to the end. WTF happened? With that in mind, I wouldn't be surprised if GB returned to that position and simply decided to keep him and patch things up with him (maybe trade Love?) and try to win with him as the starter. I think this is very unlikely though at this point.

On balance it seems like the Jets hold the stronger hand by far as long as they're patient, and I believe Douglas is that if anything. I'm thinking the latest this gets resolved is Draft Day 2, but I suspect GB finally comes to their senses before then and agrees to a reasonable deal with the Jets.

But as I said, I'm still not sure I completely understand all the aspects of this.

 

I agree: if the Packers insist on more than the package you offer, just walk away from the table, sign somebody like Bridgewater and have three draft great draft choices to further improve the team. I think Bridgewater could get this team into the playoffs with the playmakers we have plus OBJ. With our draft choices we build up the offensive line with a tackle and a center and add a quarterback like Hendon Hooker. We save cap money by refusing to take on AR's contract, and we build for long-term success with a young, talented team.

 

And if OBJ won't sign, just keep Davis to go along with Wilson, Lazard, Hardman, and Mims.

 

In the end, I think the Jets will overpay, primarily because we have an owner that failed 1st-grade business smarts.
I'd do a #4 this year, a 3rd next year, & Corey Davis... & that's being generous.
I suspect the Jets will give one of the #2s this year, & more... even a #2 this year alone, to me is overpaying based on age alone.
The key is what is AR's present/future value... what he's accomplished to this point is only sentimental value to the Packers, and has no real value to the Jets, other than to their shrewdness-challenged owner.
.

 

I say let Green Bay sweat this one out as long as possible.

The risk paying him a ton of money to just hang around and be a pain in the ass they don't need.

Not only do we want to keep most of our assets but we want the Packers to eat most of his salary.

Patience is the key here.

 

that is the gamble right?

We can maybe steal Rodgers for next to nothing.......or start Wilson if GB digs in

Such a high vs such a low LOL