My draft analysis vs needs for the Jets

So I've been looking at the draft kind of heavily over the last few weeks. I've run a bunch of simulators just to give me a feel for who might be available where and how likely the Jets would be to get them.

In the process of doing that I've watched a lot of the highlight reels to make sure that guys who looked good on paper looked good on the field also.

The main ideas I've come away with are that the draft lines up fairly well with what the Jets probably should be trying to do this year.

1. There are a number of good OL prospects in the early rounds. The Jets should be able to get an OT early and possibly a C as well. The value doesn't exactly lineup with where the Jets are drafting but this is a good thing because trading down a bit in the 1st round can give a lot of additional value later on in the draft.

2. There are a couple of very good TE prospects and a couple of good ones for later on in the draft. The Jets should be able to land a star-caliber TE with their 1st round pick after a trade-down that nets additional assets. They also have an outside chance at landing one of the top two in the 2nd round at 43. They have a good chance at landing one of the next two at 112 - where they would represent very good value.

3. The mid-rounds have several good interior defenders at MLB and S. The Jets may well luck into a great pickup at 74 or off of the proceeds of a trade-down of the 13.

4. As always there are more RB's than you can shake a stick at, ranging from potential #1 backs to very good gunner/return guys. The Jets should be able to land a valuable special-teamer on the 185. They might even choose to do at 145 with an eye to putting the guy in the RBBC.

In short there is a lot of value up and down the draft and the Jets should be looking to trade down and really capitalize on how it lines up with their needs.

Round 1:

The 13 is more value than the Jets need to spend on the talent that aligns with their needs. Trading this pick down, maybe to a team trading up for a QB feels like the best use of resources. At 18-24 the Jets should see somebody from the group of Pete Skoronski, Michael Mayer and Broderick Jones, particularly in the earlier part of that range.

Round 2:

If the Jets traded down in the first they likely got a 2nd round pick in the latter half of the 2nd round in the trade. This leaves them a good shot at using the 43 on somebody like Darnell Washington (if he falls) or an OL from the group of Anton Harrison, Dawond Jones or John Michael Schmitz. Obviously the 1st round pick should inform the 2nd, it if was used on Mayer you don't want to take a 2nd TE, even one verging on OT size like Washington.

If they got the later 2nd round pick in the trade down Jaelyn Duncan joins the OT conversation and if they still haven't taken a TE Dalton Kincaid is likely there also.

Through 2 rounds the Jets have an excellent chance to pickup a couple of OL and a TE to boost the LOS and make a new QB much more comfortable. They also have the possibility of picking up an Edge worth the pick. However they have to be willing to trade down the 13 to make this a possibility. With that move comes sudden depth and leverage at the LOS for the offense or a possible impact player at Edge.

Round 3:

This is the round that I think can make the Jets draft very strong because there is a lot of talent available at positions that could use a young star player. The Jets currently have the #74 pick and players I see that could be there include Zach Evans (RB), Jordan Battle (S), Jack Campbell (MLB), Warren McClendon (OT) and Joe Tippman (C). Basically no matter how the draft has flowed earlier the Jets have a real chance to round it off with a talented guy at a position of need.

Round 4:

The #112 will still have talented OL available if the Jets feel like they need to take off and nuke the problem from orbit. It should also have some talented Edges, Safeties, RB's and WR's. Basically it's another golden pick but not at the same talent level the #74 is likely to produce. If the Jets still have not taken a TE Sam LaPorta is likely to be there and he's an excellent developmental prospect who will pay dividends on ST's in the meantime.

Round 5 and 6:

The Jets should be able to find KR/PR/Gunner here and additional depth either at WR or RB in the process. They could also pick up additional depth either at DL or OL. Ideally the Jets have 7+ picks off of a trade down of the #13. That gives them a real chance of filling the holes that exist in the depth chart at the moment.

 

There are several good C prospects and Skoronski has real potential as a conversion.

 

Ruckert is likely to be in the TE room for several years. Having a high value target at TE is a big part of a modern NFL offense. It's been a long time since the Jets had a plus TE.

 

There are 6-7 OL worth taking in the first 32 picks. Most of them are bottom half of the 1st round type picks. This gives the Jets an excellent shot to trade down some and still get a good OL prospect.

This is not the year of franchise LT's by any means. When that happens teams tend to de-prioritize the OL and go hunting blue-chippers elsewhere.

Then you have several second-third round caliber Centers alongside another 3 or 4 OT's. At 13 and 43 the Jets have a reasonable chance of trading down a couple of times and still getting 2 good OL prospects in the process. The middle of the draft is really rich in good prospects vs the value of the pick.

The thing that could screw the Jets is if the QB's are abandoned at the top of the draft. It really helps us if somebody wants the 3rd QB at 13. If on the other hand this turns into a draft where the QB's will go in the latter half of the round we may be looking at the 13 with nobody who is good value on the pick and wind up reaching for an OL instead.

 

There were 6 OL taken before the 24 last season in a draft where the vibe on OL was much stronger. 9 taken before the 43.

In 2021 there were 5 OL taken before the 24 and 8 taken by the 43.

2020 saw 5 taken before the 24 and 8 taken by the 43.

Given the talent in this draft even if people are reaching we're likely to see 5 or 6 tops taken before the 24 and maybe 9 taken by the 43. That leaves a lot of room for the Jets to trade the 13 down and still get an OL in the 1st. Really it is a bad year for top out OL talent and a good year for DL, DB and LB's. This makes it fairly likely that the OL wind up taken where they should be in the latter half of the round. Assuming the QB's get taken earlier than they should which has been a hallmark of recent drafts the OL talent blend should very much favor the Jets.

 

He has very good mobility for a guy his size. OG is probably out of reach because you need a certain mass to play guard but a mobile Center is an excellent asset.