2021 Draft, Top 12 Expensive Players Year 2

Discussion in 'National Football League' started by ouchy, Nov 29, 2022.

  1. ouchy

    ouchy Well-Known Member

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    Here is an update grading the top 12 biggest risks in the 2021 draft in year 2. Everyone knows it takes 3 years to properly evaluate a draft. Since I already did year one, here some year 2 stats.

    I'm going to start with the grades list on top, so its easier to read their progression, then stats second. Players are listed in the order of their draft cost, not draft position. Grades are assigned by how much in game value they have produced vs how expensive they were, and injuries do factor into grading.

    The grade order is: after 6 games, after 12 games, and after 28 games.

    Trevor Lawrence: 1st overall
    B, C+, B+
    Trey Lance: 3rd overall, two future 1sts and 3rd
    D+, D, D
    Zach Wilson: 2nd overall
    C-, C, D-
    Kyle Pitts: 4th overall
    C-, A-, C+
    Jaylon Waddle: 6th overall, future 1st
    C, A, A+
    Ja'Maar Chase: 5th overall
    A+, A+, A+
    Penei Sewell: 7th overall
    B-, B, B
    Justin Fields: 11th overall, future 1st and 5th
    C, C-, A-
    Jaycee Horn: 8th overall
    C-, C, B-
    Devonta Smith: 10th overall, future 3rd
    B-, A-, B+
    Alijah Vera-Tucker: 14th overall, 66th overall, 86th overall
    B, B+, A-
    Patrick Surtain III: 9th overall
    B+, A-, A

    Player stats:

    Trevor Lawrence - current grade B+
    Record: 7-21
    615 / 987 for 6296 yards
    62.3 completion percent
    28 TD
    23 INT
    Sacks - 53
    Rushing Yards - 513
    5 Rushing TDs

    Trey Lance - current grade D
    Record: 2-2
    56 / 102 for 797 yards
    54.9 completion percent
    5 TD
    3 INT
    Sacks - 6
    Rushing Yards - 235
    1 Rushing TD

    Zach Wilson - current grade D-
    Record: 8-12
    318 / 572 for 3613 yards
    55.6 completion percent
    13 TD
    16 INT
    Sacks - 60
    Rushing Yards - 279
    5 Rushing TDs

    Kyle Pitts - current grade C+
    Targets - 169
    Receptions - 96
    Yards - 1382
    Average - 14.4
    TDs - 3

    Jaylen Waddle - current grade A+
    Targets - 225
    Receptions - 160
    Yards - 1978
    Average - 12.4
    TDs - 12

    Ja'Marr Chase - current grade A+
    Targets - 202
    Receptions - 128
    Yards - 2060
    Average - 16.1
    TDs - 19

    Penai Sewell - current grade B
    Starts - 27
    Penalties - 15
    Sacks Allowed - 7

    Justin Fields - current grade A-
    Record: 5-16
    295 / 498 for 3512 yards
    59.2 completion percent
    20 TD
    18 INT
    Sacks - 76
    Rushing Yards - 1254
    9 Rushing TDs

    Jaycee Horn - current grade B-
    Targets - 50
    Completions Allowed - 24
    Passes Defended - 6
    INTs - 3
    TDs allowed - 1
    Tackles - 43

    Devonta Smith - current grade B+
    Targets - 183
    Receptions - 120
    Yards - 1525
    Average - 12.7
    TDs - 11

    Alijiah Vera-Tucker - current grade A-
    Starts - 23
    Penalties - 1
    Sacks Allowed - 2

    Patrick Surtain III - current grade A
    Targets - 152
    Completions Allowed - 80
    Passes Defended - 21
    INTs - 4
    TDs allowed - 6
    Tackles - 98

    Go Jets!
     
    #1 ouchy, Nov 29, 2022
    Last edited: Nov 30, 2022
    IDFjet likes this.
  2. Kryoptix

    Kryoptix Well-Known Member

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    No way Justin Fields deserve an A.
    He has proven to be an amazing runner of the ball but all his flaws are still there, mainly:
    - Holding the ball for too long,
    - Not processing the play fast enough
    - No precision with his throws.

    Even with his running ability he has still a losing record. I say giving him an A is VERY generous.

    Also Surtain is an A+
     
  3. ouchy

    ouchy Well-Known Member

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    Its open for others opinions.
    Fields was the 9th most expensive pick so that helps his value/grade. If he was top 5 that might be different. He also has a terrible roster to work with. At this point he is considered the Bears FQB going forward and has become must see football in the same vain as Lamar Jackson. It could easily change by the 3 year mark, but right now he is an A- pick IMO.
     
  4. Kryoptix

    Kryoptix Well-Known Member

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    Comparing Fields to Lamar Jackson is very loosy. It's like comparing Zach Wilson to Mahomes because of his off platform ability.
    Lamar did way better and won more. He also won MVP which Fields is not even close. I won't even touch the abnormal rate of sacks he got and his already piling up injury record. If he does not improve his passing ability he will eventually fade into the lower bottom of the league.

    For comparison purpose, being an A you should already be top 10 at your position, no way Fields is top 10 QB at this moment.
     
  5. Ptflea2

    Ptflea2 Well-Known Member

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    Trey Lance has been sacked 53 times?! o_O
     
  6. The Waterboy

    The Waterboy Well-Known Member

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    It was only off by 47
     
  7. ouchy

    ouchy Well-Known Member

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    Yeah my mistake. Copied the format from Lawrence and didn't change the sack number. Good catch.
     
  8. FJF

    FJF 2018 MVP Joe Namath Award Winner

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    It’s in the ball park
     
  9. IDFjet

    IDFjet Well-Known Member

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    Definitely appreciate the work that went into this post.

    What's your problem with JC Horn? I've heard he's very good.

    "Horn has allowed only 138 yards in coverage this season, along with only four first-down catches and a 38.3 passing rating."

    https://www.thecoldwire.com/stats-show-how-jaycee-horn-has-been-elite/
     
  10. ouchy

    ouchy Well-Known Member

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    I like Horn but he has only started 13 of 29 games due to injury so he hasn't provided as much in game value yet. That's why his grade was lower last year but is rising.
     
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