Zach Wilson will...

Pierre-Paul was out; the rest of their D-Line was healthy. https://www.footballdb.com/teams/nfl/tampa-bay-buccaneers/injuries?gid=2022010208

 

There is a difference in criticizing and attacking. You went on an all out war against any positive from Becton.

I knew this would happen with Zach . Instead of looking at games and provide context the it becomes all about stats.

To be fair you have not attacked Zach like you have Becton but as last season has gotten further away the context in has stats has become less and less

With that being said to annoint Zach and Becton and that they are now erased all doubts is just as silly.

Becton had to stay healthy and Zach has to continue to improve. With Zach I worry about unrealistic expectations. He is a 22 year old second year player. He needs to show improvement, but people around here are expecting Joe Burrow and playing lights out the first four games or he is a bust.

In my mind Zach need to have a mid level QB type season. He is not ready to carry the team in his back. We need to establish the run, Zach needs to avoid the big mistakes and a few key throws a game.

If Zach has to throw the ball 30-40 times a game for us to win the Jets are in for another long season.

 

I watched every single Jets game very closely, my thoughts on Wilson's season have not changed from the season until now. Stats don't tell the whole story but they tell a lot of it. In this case the stats largely matched the eye test. I've supported Wilson longer than most people on this board, hence my avatar. Just because I campaigned to draft him and personally like him doesn't mean I'm going to lie about how he played though.

Beyond that, my point in the post you replied to was that we have people here who relentlessly attacked people for liking one QB while simultaneously defending the other QB to the death, despite both QBs having extremely similar first seasons. THAT'S bias, not me saying I don't think Wilson played well (that's something most objective observers would agree with).

I feel like my only actual "attacks" on Becton have been regarding immaturity, like telling Cimini to get off his nuts. The rest of it has just been me saying he was overweight (which he was).

 

Your take on Zach during the season was fair but you have been reverting to that primary stat line which is almost irrelevant. Context still matters even after time passes.

Becton- You have not been fair. You have been very critical. You jumped on me when I said let's wait until camp. With that being said the story is still not written on Becton and you very well may be right. I hope you are not.

You are a stat guy, I understand and appreciate that perspective. I do not always agree with it but I appreciate it.

 

I'm not going to do it myself but I feel like if you go back and look at my thoughts on Wilson during the season they really weren't different than they are now. I understand context matters, and I understood that during the season with the injuries and circumstances. I don't hold the second Bills game against him at all, for example. We were missing 7 starters on offense.

The bulk of the evidence still showed poor play though. Things like injuries and random bad luck tend to balance out over a full season. Wilson went from sailing passes (leading to picks) before the injury to throwing everything low after the injury. That switch led to avoiding most of the ugly picks after he came back from injury, but they didn't help his completion percentage as he was just trading picks for incompletions (a net positive, but not ideal).

His best game of the season by far was the Bucs game. He played legitimately well that game, even if someone wouldn't think that just by looking at the stats. I felt that for most games the eye test matched the stats though.

Wilson finished as what, the worst or second worst starting QB based on stats? Has there ever been a QB that did that only to have reasonable people argue he wasn't that bad? You don't end up as the worst or second worst unless you played pretty damn badly. We can split hairs about whether he was the worst or second worst, but when the stats are that bad I think it's hard to argue he was anything other than bottom 5-7 at best.

 

29.1 attempts per game was the lowest in the NFL in 2021. 34.5 is the league average

If asking him to throw the league average number of passes is too much then maybe the NFL is not for him

 

I do not agree he started throwing low and away. I think he progressed as a QB with a very young team around him. To me stats are almost irrelevant for a rookie QB, especially with the hand, he was dealt with by the Jets. To me he passed the eye test but was a raw rookie with a lot of raw rookies around him. Rookie QBs do well with a good running game and a star WR or TE to bail him out and a good defense. Zach had none of that last season. To me you look for growth not stats and the eye test. He made a wow throw almost every game by the end of the season he was more consistent inside of the pocket. The Jets chose to play him because they thought he will learn more by playing . He would have to withstand the naysayers like Br4d and BrowingNagle that choose not to see anything positive.

He will now have to take a step to be an average NFL QB (stats wise) and flash the special for the Jets to win. He is still to raw/young to put the team on his back. I am looking forward to watch the progression. He will grow faster if The Jets put him in better positions to win. Being behind two TDs after the opponent's first two possessions can't happen anymore.

 

This is what gets me excited about Zach.

 

I feel the same way. He has talent around him now, assuming we stay healthy. But I agree…after the injury for all this “he looked better” talk, it’s super subjective and based on the fact he had scrubs on the field with him, because the objective numbers were not actually much better, if at all, outside of fewer picks. He still didn’t hit 60% accuracy, he still had a low YPA number, he still didn’t have a bunch of TDs, etc. he was marginally better, yes, but still way below average. Understandable as a rookie QB on a bad team, so I’ll give him the benefit of the doubt here, but let’s not make it sound like he was suddenly SO much better…

but now in year 2, he has to hit the throws that are there to hit…I don’t want to see passes hit the dirt 5 yards in front of open RBs in the flat. He needs to hit at least 60% completion rate, and he has to have more TDs than picks. Those are the things I’m looking for.

 

I don't know what the point of predicting what Wilson will do or won't do. One prediction I can make is that he will be the Jets starting QB. I'm someone who didn't want him to begin with, but the QB is the GM/coaches decision and they have to live with the consequences. As for Wilson, the most positive thing I saw was his mobility and ability to scramble to get outside the pocket. That means he can extend plays and that's important, however, he has to seal the deal by completing those passes that he often missed on last season. Other things I want to see:

1) Ability to throw the bomb: as in Jets vs Dallas, 2019, Darnold to Anderson. He has the weapons to do it with Moore and G. Wilson.
2) Arm strength. Ability to hit the down and out pattern, as when coming from behind late in a game. A top NFL QB has to be able to make that throw with enough zip on the ball so the defender can't intercept or make a play on it.
3) Throw from the pocket. Even with Wilson's mobility, he has to be primarily a pocket passer. You can't win in the NFL unless you can throw from the pocket (so say the experts.)

When I see those things from Wilson, I'll be convinced he is our franchise QB and I'm hoping he will pass the test.

 

I feel like we've definitely already seen the first two. I have no doubt Wilson can throw bombs and that he has good arm strength.

I just think he hasn't shown an ability to consistently hit the gimme throws yet, and that's extremely important.

 

Interesting point about expectations and joe burrow.

my immediate reaction is why SHOULDN’T we have high expectations? He was drafted 2nd overall…it’s not like he was a fourth round pick. There are plenty of QBs who start soon and look good soon…Herbert shined as a rookie, though he went to a much better team. But Burrow went to the Bengals … not a great run team by any stretch … and took them to the Super Bowl in year 2.

I’m not saying I expect Wilson to take us to the Suoerbowl, but we do have a much better team around him now, so I DO expect him to be much better than the last ranked QB he was last year…I don’t think it’s asking too much of a second overall pick to be at least middle of the pack trending up to top ten status…

I think great players don’t take too long to show they are great…

I expect big improvement from our QB this year…

 

Realistic expectations. Joe Burrow is 25 and came into the NFL coming from one of the best if not the best offenses in college history. Zach will improve and he better improve enough where we see the future. He needs to be middle of the pack this season

 

I don't care a lot about his stats but rather I want to see improvment in a few areas. The most important thing to me to see improvement is getting rid of the ball quickly. He did a very good job of that in games like the Bucs and I think Jax. I thought Jax despite the stats was his best game of the year. The second thing he needs to improve upon is footwork. He does two things badly. He often will point his left foot to the left rather than at his target resulting in throws going left and he will often not set on the last step of his drop bouncing causing him difficulty in getting the ball out on time. These issues are likely partially caused by lack of confidence in what is going around him but they need to be cleaned up for him to be more accurate. The third thing is to pay with more confidence. Trust what he sees, read his keys not overthinking and let the ball go and the last thing is accuracy. He simply needs to be a lot more accurate.

He should be helped by a better supporting cast and hopefully better protection. But playing QB well is alsmot all mental and confidence. He has to stop trying to do too much. When he tries to to do much everything falls apart. Boring football playing within the structure of the offense is what he needs to do. I really don't want to see the off structure plays, They can come next year. This year I want to see him play boring as hell efficient smart football. If its not there throw it away or run for a few yards. No more 24% sack rates. Once, he can run the offense efficiently then yes go off structure and make big plays, But, I hope this year is about being a nice boring but smart QB.

While I think context matters when we look at last year he needs to show us this year that he can run the offense. He does not need to be even average. A top 20 to 25 QB would be progress and be a path to future progress. I am somewhere in the middle on Zach. I see the liklihood of failure as high but I also see the talent, the work ethic and the better supporting cast. It could go very well or very bad.

 

I care a lot about his stats.

When was the last time the Jets had a young QB capable of completing 60% of their passes over the course of a season? What about 7.5 yards per attempt? How about a 2 to 1 TD/Int ratio let alone the 3-1 most QB's can manage?

It's been freaking forever since the Jets had an actually GOOD young QB. You have to go back to Chad Pennington for that.

I'm sick and tired of 15 years of lousy QB football.

 

I haven't seen it. I saw him throw one long pass after getting flushed from the pocket that Davis caught in the end-zone after doubling back. If there were other successful long bombs he threw last year, please send me a video link. I didn't see enough of the down and out pattern to determine his arm strength there. Those are what you need when you're down a score and trying to come back late in a game. The Jets were rarely in that position last season. In the NFL, good arm strength is average. He needs to be above average. He was the second overall pick in the draft, excellent arm strength is what should be expected.

 

Does that at all diminish what Zach was able to do with almost no team? The Bucs are stacked cry me a f*cking river

 

I agree, Zach needs to have a mid level QB type season. For reference, that means almost twice as many TDs as INTs, a mid 60s completion percentage, over 7 yards per attempt, a passer rating in the low 90s, and throwing the ball 30-40 times a game. The last time the Jets had a mid level QB (aside from the 2015 Fitzpatrick season) was over 15 years ago, so the bar wasn't that high then. But it is now. No excuses.

 

What do the rest of the Tweets from training camp today about Wilson get you feeling? The ones that don't come from the team.