Thoughts on the Now and Future NYJ

Discussion in 'New York Jets' started by MaximusD163, May 18, 2022.

  1. MaximusD163

    MaximusD163 Well-Known Member

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    I wanted to just take a look at the building job that Joe Douglas has done, and what it means for the long term future of the Jets.

    I won't re-hash every move that they made over the past couple years, but I will pick up prior to this draft and then look at the big picture of what the team has become in that time frame.

    Starting with a 2022 Frame of Mind:

    After 2 Drafts and 3 FA periods, the Jets had left themselves in a place where they had a lot of depth and a lot of viable starters, but only a couple of potentially high level starters. If you consider a 53 man roster to have 53 different positions, in my opinion to complete a bare minimum of a solid roster leading up to this draft the Jets had at filled essentially all but:

    -WR3
    -RB2
    -OT3
    -IOL5
    -TE3
    -DT3
    -DE2
    -CB4
    -S3

    They filled WR3 by drafting Garrett Wilson, RB2 with Michael Carter by drafting Breece Hall to be RB1, OT3 by drafting Max Mitchell, IOL5 by acquiring Nate Herbig, TE3 by drafting Jeremy Ruckert, DE2 by drafting Jermaine Johnson II, and CB4 with Brandin Echols by drafting Sauce Gardner to be CB1.

    So to me they have addressed almost every hole either by drafting the player to fill it, or drafting a high-end player to push a lesser player down into it. The fact that they recognized they had solid depth and opted to attack high level players like Sauce Gardner and Breece Hall improves both top end talent and depth, instead of only depth. It's an excellent sign to me that they didn't over-rate their roster, and opted to obtain high level talent that they probably could have talked themselves out of. They could have used their 9 picks to fill 9 needs, but they opted to fill 6 needs while getting significantly more talented overall.

    Nate Herbig is a great pickup to be the 2nd backup G/C along with Dan Feeney. I think another Safety and another D-Tackle are definitely needs, and they’ve already been interested in Larry Ogunjobi which makes perfect sense. Even if they are ok with Ashtyn Davis as the 3rd Safety, I’m not happy with the 4th Safety. There is still time throughout the summer to add a player like Ogunjobi, and there are opportunities to add Safety 3 or 4 via waivers at cutdown day.

    From a 5,000 Foot View

    They will have more opportunities this summer to tinker with the roster, but this is definitely the completion of the primary rebuild cycle. From this point onward, assuming it goes well, it will be about maintenance and keeping flexibility, but the core of this version of the Jets roster is now in place. Something cool of note is that 35 of my projected 53 man roster is already under contract for 2023. Of the key offensive players, only Fant and McGovern are scheduled to be free agents, and of the key defensive players, only Rankins, Joyner, and Quincy Williams are scheduled to be free agents. By and large, this Jets roster is set to have a lot of stability with young talented players.

    I know people didn't want to be patient anymore, and people hated seeing the Jets losing so many games these last 2 years. Ultimately, Douglas' first real year in 2020 was primarily spent unclogging Maccagnan's putrid cap and roster situation, while the 2021 and 2022 offseason were spent installing a new coaching staff and building a youthful, talented roster with primarily high character players. They are probably not Super Bowl contenders today, but the expectation should be a quality season that builds internal confidence for serious playoff runs in 2023 and 2024. While some of the middle class vets may not stick around once these first few Douglas rookie classes reach their second contracts, the fact that the Jets have built an excellent base of financial flexibility means that there should be absolutely zero issue retaining any player that proves themself to be a key part of team success. As 2025 and beyond arrives, the current crop of young players will be the expensive players in their primes, and although the Jets may not have as many middle tier guys like Jordan Whitehead or CJ Uzomah, they will have had the 2023 and 2024 drafts to supplement
    the roster.

    The Jets are finally, FINALLY not playing catchup with the rest of the league. They are still young overall, but the hardest parts are all done.
    -The Cap has been Reset
    -The Roster and been Purged
    -The Coaches have been Hired
    -The Culture has been Installed
    -The Foundation has been Built

    The Jets under Douglas have made 9 1st and 2nd Rd Picks, and 7 of them have been premium positions. I'd say overall that's a responsible use of assets. They've averaged 8.67 total picks per year in that time.

    Remember how we lamented the lack of investment at the most important positions for the past decade? In just 3 years the Jets have drafted:

    2 Quarterbacks (1,4)
    4 Offensive Linemen (1,1,4,4)
    3 Wide Receivers (1,2,2)
    3 Pass Rushers (1,3,4)
    4 Boundary Cornerbacks (1,5,5,6)

    Compared to:

    1 Tight End (3)
    3 Running Backs (2,4,4)
    1 Defensive Tackle (6)
    2 Linebackers (5,6)
    1 Slot Cornerback (5)
    1 Safety (3)
    1 Punter (6)

    No position has been outright ignored, but there is an obvious focus on key positions which were largely ignored for a decade.

    Remember how we lamented the older, expensive Free Agent signings riddled with bust potential and no long term upside? Not every Douglas FA has been a home run, but the misses are all guys with less than $10 million APY and no guaranteed money. At this point even moves like signing George Fant over Jack Conklin look good, considering one looks like a LT with an extension looming while the other is a RT who just took a cut in salary of over 40%.

    I know this comes off as extremely optimistic, I absolutely get that. But guys, we have not seen this level of competence from a front office in at least 14-15 years, if not more. I know there has to be proof in the win column, but for the first time in a very long time... the Jets did things the right way. That in itself is a win.
     
  2. LAJet

    LAJet Well-Known Member

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    Very nicely done Max, as always..
    May I add we could very well have not just one but two DE2 with JJ and Clemons. That beast Clemons makes JJ look small standing next to him. Boy oh boy what a delight training camp battles between the OL and DL will be this year. Becton better bring his A game on as the rest of the OL.
    I don't recall having so much hope with the breath and depth of this team since the year Brick and Nick were selected.
    Most improved areas in one year. TE and Edge/Pass rush.
     
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  3. Brook!

    Brook! Soft Admin...2018 Friendliest Member Award Winner

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    Max

    Another master piece my friend. Great points. No you don't come off as optimistic here. You are stating the facts and laying out what Joe D did right to build up the roster. I loved your breakdown of draft assets and their usage.

    I wonder if Mr Cimini or any other Beat Writer could do such a nice informative piece.

    I want to believe there are some beat writers who navigate these boards for ideas or see what fans are thinking. If they are reading this, all I will ask them is to learn a little from you when they write their next piece. Fill it with facts and provide insights instead of going for controversial attention whoring.

    Great job Max. Thank you my friend.
     
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  4. Acad23

    Acad23 Well-Known Member

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    Nice work, Max.

    If these player acquisitions fail to manifest success on the field (and I don't necessarily mean wins)... then we need to look
    harder at the coaching and culture.
     
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  5. Jets79

    Jets79 Well-Known Member

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    I gotta chime in with the kudos on this post….we’ll freaking done sir!

    I love the overall strategic view. He may not have hit on every single player whether draft or free agent, but man oh man the strategy is clear. The investment of top picks on key positions and not on DTs or Safeties is so refreshing. You can tell JD has a plan. He can execute that plan and he’s been great in trades and doesn’t get ripped off like Bradway used to do every single time. He hasn’t hit on all free agents, but he hasn’t blown HUGE contracts like Mac did time and time again with Trumaine and LeVeon. Just so refreshing to see an actual strategy…build the trenches, get playmakers, then fill in the rest.

    I agree seriously we haven’t had this level of competence since probably Parcells (though l still think Parcells the coach bailed out Parcells the GM more often than not)…Tannenbaum was good but got too cute with the trade ups…

    anyway…we’ll done. Agree with your write up
     
  6. AndyDrums

    AndyDrums Well-Known Member

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    Wonderful post, very inciteful. My only question/concern with the post is your inference that we finally have our HC and DC. I hope you are right, but this team looked so pitifully unprepared at times last season, especially at the beginning (NE twice, Denver, Atlanta, Indy to name a few) that I am still VERY skeptical about the HC and DC. OC not as much. Watching those games was as painful as I can ever remember feeling as a Jet fan because I knew from the opening kickoff that we had no chance to win. I admit LaFleur showed some ingenuity at times last season. I also admit the CS showed a little improvement towards the end of the season, nowhere enough to make this 50 year long Jet fan confident that we finally have our HC/DC for the future. There can be no more excuses for this staff and FO. They now have a talented roster, I would say the most talented NYJ roster since 2010 AFCCG team. Now they need to win some games already and not have our season be over before Columbus day as it has been for the last 10 years.
     
  7. MaximusD163

    MaximusD163 Well-Known Member

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    I’m not making any claims that it’s going to work, but I think the process is sound. I also will point out I expected a lot of what you talked about, and last year leading up to the season I warned people on the board that the Jets were extremely inexperienced across the roster, and a lot of key rapports like OL continuity and QB/Receiver continuity were nonexistent. I knew it was going to look ugly at times. That doesn’t mean it will be great this year, but personally I am optimistic.
     
  8. AndyDrums

    AndyDrums Well-Known Member

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    I hear you partner. I too think we may actually look competent this season. Same as yourself, I did not expect many wins last season, but have to admit my frustration at just how badly they mismanaged personnel (back up QB was an unmitigated embarrassment), game planning in the first half of the season was beyond horrific, and the total look of incompetence we saw. New staff, rookie QB, not much speed or talent granted, but this is the NFL. These guys are paid millions to do these jobs and to have such failure was more than worry some. I just wish ownership would start setting some goals for this team like mandating a playoff push, or at least, mandating that they expect the team to be playing meaningful games into November, no? Hoping for the best.
     
  9. RonPi

    RonPi Well-Known Member

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    What difference does it make if they "address holes" if the draftees can't play?

    Last year's draft by the same guy:

    Let's see, Jamien Sherwood had 8 tackles in 5 games, Jason Pinnock had 10 tackles in
    12 games, Hamsah Nasrildeen had 3 tackles in 12 games, Jonathan Marshall had 1 tackle in 4 games.

    Vera-Tucker may be great, the two Carters are at least competent, as is Brandin Echols.

    Point is, can we see if any of the players drafted can do anything before we make the bronze statue of JD?

    Ron
     
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  10. CotcheryFan

    CotcheryFan 2018 ROTY Poster Award Winner

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    We'll see what happens in upcoming years. I'd like for at least three of our last five 1st rounders to get a second contract with us.
     
  11. Jets79

    Jets79 Well-Known Member

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    I get the point about let’s see if the players actually perform as good as expected, but taking some late round 5th and 6th rounders to make your point isn’t the hill I would choose to defend….

    I’d have to say that AVT, Moore, and the two Carters looked pretty damn good…jury still out on Zach but there’s hope

    but yes agree on the basic premise of letting the players prove it on the field
     
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  12. MaximusD163

    MaximusD163 Well-Known Member

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    All of those players you just listed (and I guess implied they underperformed?) we’re 5th and 6th Round Rookies. I mean… if you expected more than one or two of the Jets five 5th/6th Rd Rookies to actually contribute, you’re kind of setting yourself up for disappointment. The holes I referred to being filled in this draft were mostly high draft picks, and the 3rd/4th round players are filling the hole of backup/developmental player.
     
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  13. KingRoach

    KingRoach Well-Known Member

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    None of JDs 5th rd picks hit last year so he traded away this years 5th rd picks. We will never be a SB contender if we don’t start getting pro bowl players in the 6th and 7th rounds. #FireJD
     
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  14. MaximusD163

    MaximusD163 Well-Known Member

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    I want at least 5 rookie pro bowlers per draft and at least 1 HoF player per draft or I quit.
     
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  15. Jets79

    Jets79 Well-Known Member

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    Seriously…that dudes just trolling
     
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  16. NYJFOREVER

    NYJFOREVER Well-Known Member

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    They can't.
     
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  17. cval

    cval Well-Known Member

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    It is much easier to bash than to actually look at what JD has done. Great post as usual, JD inherited a shit show. He totally revamped the way the team scouts players and built a young roster.
     
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  18. The Dark Knight

    The Dark Knight Well-Known Member

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    Great post, @MaximusD163. Joe Douglas deserves a lot of credit for how he has transformed this entire roster in just a couple years.

    People will call me crazy here, but I credit the Johnsons too. Christopher Johnson for signing off on this plan when Douglas was hired (given a 6 year deal), and Woody Johnson for allowing him to continue it. The team had been truly dreadful since 2012. Obviously you want to win ASAP, so to agree to a strip down and rebuild was not an easy decision, I am sure. We have not seen the results on the field yet, but I believe they are coming soon and it will all be worth it.
     
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  19. Footballgod214

    Footballgod214 Well-Known Member

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    I really DO like the direction our team is heading in (finally). I'm not sure if there's anything else JoeD could have done different.

    My only concern is Zack Wilson. I just don't see him ever becoming a dominant force. I like my QBs 6'-5", 230 pounds, rugged as fuck, quick on their toes, cannon for an arm. Think Josh Allen, Ben Rothlesburger, Joe Burrows. I agree skat back QBs CAN win games....Russel Wilson for one. But it always seems that teams who put all their eggs in a tiny basket struggle in the QB dept. RG3, Kyler Murrey, Zack Wilson maybe.

    Look, I hope my concerns for our long term future are way overblown. I hope ZW develops into a true weapon (as in 5000yrds, 30+TDs, <10 ints, almost zero injury history, etc etc) year in and year out.

    But I'm afraid that even if all the stars align for a wonderful season (think Philly), it will be really hard to repeat as the other 31 defenses change up. I know folks like to say "at his combine he rang out at 6'-11", 270 pounds....he only looks small!!!. Just give him time and he'll become Patrick Mahomes!!"

    Good God I hope they're right and I'm wrong.
     
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  20. RonPi

    RonPi Well-Known Member

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    Yep you're right. I wasn't trolling, I just need to stop posting until after the games start!

    Ron
     

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