If Jets win 8 games this season, this is a statement for future

11 to 12 new starters, extremely young team and a murderers row of teams to start the season. In the 1st 10 games we play 7 top 8 defenses and a crazy amount of marquee QBs. 5 or 6 wins would be a phenomenal season and improvement. 8 wins seems like asking to win the lottery.

Looking at the schedule wins is not a good measure of success. Improvement over the season, playing competitive games, a much improved defense and a top 20 to 25 offense is where we should look to measure success.

It will take awhile for this team to learn to play together, to play in pressure situations and win games. Expecting them to start the year with wins against this front loaded schedule is setting yourself up for dissapointment.

In year 2 of this rebuild 5 wins would be fantastic but a competitive improved team in all areas QB play, WR, TE, ML coaching, stopping the run, QB pressure, cb play and less injuries would be much more meaningful than any amount of wins.

 

I agree with everything you say here, but I'd be disappointed in only 5 wins regardless of anything else. I'm hoping for 6+ as a minimum, and yes, am probably setting myself up for disappointment, but that's what being a fan - especially a Jets fan - is all about, right?

Yes, if we show big improvement in all those areas - especially if Zach steps up and becomes a clear FQB in the making - that will mitigate winning as few as 5 games, but it wouldn't erase the frustration of so much more losing.

I don't believe that Douglas has taken any shortcuts, and I fully believe in the approach he's taken, but I need to see some real progress regardless of youth and inexperience, and 5 games, even against a tough schedule, isn't enough progress for me.

 

I expect us to be a much better team this year, but I’m not sure I expect the record to be that much better…we play too many teams that have historically owned us (Pitt, Balt), too many teams that are hard to play at (Den,GB,Sea), we are still at a talent deficit to Buf, Cle, etc. we have some winnable games but this season would look SO MUCH different if we played the Jac, Chi, Min games earlier to get a softer start and gear up for the tough games later. As it is, we could very well be shell shocked and demoralized by the time we get to the bye.

this schedule is seriously fucked up.

 

I feel like too many people evaluate the 2022 season with 2021 results. The Jets are a completely different team and so are all of those opponents. Everything changes so fast in the NFL. Overnight the Chiefs were good. Overnight people said okay, the Bills are great now. Last year it was the Bengals.

Not saying the Jets will instantly click and be great, but they are better than people realize. Fans can't believe it until it happens, and I understand that, as we have been burned too many times in the past.

In my opinion, the team has no excuse to not win at least 8 games in 2022. If they don't, it will mean something is wrong with coaching or QB.

 

2021 results are the best thing to use to forecast the future of the team while recognizing that "Past performance is no guarantee of future results". What happened in 2021 is real and concrete and was accomplished under the same leadership with the majority of the same players available today; predictions for the future are not evaluations, they are predictions and those here are often colored by the irrational exuberance of being fans. Any of the draftees or free agents may or may not perform at acceptable NFL levels. The quarterback may or may not improve to acceptable NFL standards. Any of the guys who have been around two or three years or more may or may not perform at an acceptable level. Players will get injured and lost for multiple games or the entire season. Every other team in the league the Jets must play has taken steps to improve their teams and most have done so from a more successful starting point for the season than the Jets.

Having gotten caught up in the hype in the recent past and predicting seven wins, I am going back to predicting five wins and will continue to do so for the foreseeable future until such time as the Jets actually show, on the field, that they are capable of winning five games.

 

Doubtful, most Jets fans believe we'll be winning 10 to 13 games, insert eye roll, with that being said, they'll want everyone fired if we win only 8

 

Well said, Brook!

This is the most important thing for me though. I can handle not winning 8-9 games this season as long as we're competitive throughout the entire season. No more 54-13 loses to NE, no more 45-30 losses to IND (where we went into the 4th down 42-16), no more 26-0 shutouts @DEN, etc. Just be competitive. If we lose 10 games this year but 8 of those are by 1 score, especially if they come against the tougher teams on our schedule (BUF, CIN, GB, etc.), I think that's progress and would be a good learning experience for this team and CS.

 

Or it simply means they got beat off better teams.

No excuse not to win 8 games lol there are going to be a lot of disappointed fans next season.

Excuses

Teams full of rookies and 2nd season rookies.
Group of death.
Possibly the hardest schedule out there.
Nobody knows if Wilson is taking the step up he needs.
Injuries may well kill us again.
D coach.
Other Coaches.
JD just isn't good enough in FA and the draft after all.

There's 8 with out even thinking about it

4 wins, 5 and we will exceed my expectations but if we actually compete in games that will be the first step towards becoming an actual team.

 

What about close games. If we lose a lot of one-score games that come down to the final minutes will that make a difference?

 

I recall the 1977 team. It just came off a great draft with a new coach. The team had a 3-11 record for the third straight season. But, this team was different. It was young, learning, better and was playing competitive football. The record was the same but the wins did not come until the next year. In a young growing team often wins/losses are not always the best measure of progress. Learning to play competitive football comes 1st. Wins usually do not come until later.

Given our last few years I would be thrilled to just see us in games in the 4th quarter.

 

I have seen almost the complete opposite of this from every medium I interact with Jet fans on.

 

I really don't know what to make of this team or season. On paper they are better. Can Zach show improvement this year is the big question? Hopefully we see results this year. 7-10 or 8-9 would be a nice step up from last season. I am also curious to see how they measure up against the Bills. Not Miami, not New England. Buffalo is the best team in the division and Josh Allen isn't going away anytime soon. If the Jets are actually going to do something in this division then they need to beat the top team.

 

We all talk about Zach getting better,which he needs to, but if we want to win games we have to have to be better on defense.

It is unrealistic to have the offense to have to score on every drive or be down 14-0 after 2 possessions.

 

I answered that in my last sentence mate.

'4 wins, 5 and we will exceed my expectations but if we actually compete in games that will be the first step towards becoming an actual team.'

In short I'd be happy for us to be competing and not getting blown out, it is baby steps but it will be a step in the right direction.

 

I'd say that 8/9 wins seems to be the magic number people are hoping for, it seems too much for me at this stage and with that schedule.

I do believe we have lucked out on the way the AFC East has just suddenly burst to life, it is almost cruel, we get a guy that is building the team back the right way, granted in a slower fashion than a lot of people want but they can't deny that it is at least very professional now and as soon as we are looking to turn the corner every group game is a killer match up, damn Jets luck again.

 

Missed that but I was just expanding on what you were saying.

 

5 wins would be fantastic? Come on man.

11-12 new starters is a good thing, it means we've upgraded half the entire group of starters. These guys have all been playing football their entire lives, not everyone needs years to adjust. Good players are often good very soon in their NFL careers.

I'll be looking at our point differential for a more nuanced view of our competency but there is no way 5 wins would be fantastic unless we have a weird outlier season with a huge improvement in point differential and just happen to lose a ton of close games.

 

Really? The consensus here last preseason was that we'd win 7 games last year. Ouchy did the math from the predictions thread.

I think it's pretty well documented that we're generally overly optimistic in the offseason.

I remember after the 7-9 season in 2019 with Darnold we had many fans expecting 10+ wins the following year. We proceeded to win 2 games. The 2019 season was an illusion based on a cupcake schedule, Darnold played awfully the vast majority of the year.

Wins, losses, point differential, and strength of schedule are what we should be looking at if we want to honestly assess how good we were during a given year.

I will say - there's a lot of good reason to think we'll be a lot better this year than last. We've replaced about half our total starters from last year. We should win 6+ games this year at minimum. If we don't, it likely means Wilson and/or our coaches aren't the guys.

 

Right, but if that happens, it means the Jets plan has failed. If they go (5-12) in 2022, I don't think that is a good sign for the future. I would begin to question if they are on the right path.

Those aren't acceptable excuses to me though. It would mean Robert Saleh probably is not right for the job. Maybe Joe Douglas is not as good of a GM as I thought, and Zach Wilson is not as good of a QB as I thought.

8 wins is not asking for that much either. It is still under .500 at (8-9). I think it is a reasonable goal for 2022.