Check this one out: https://jetsxfactor.com/2022/05/14/ny-jets-breece-hall-issues-rb/ This is the most interesting one for me: "The Jets’ running backs combined for 15 drops in 2021, the most of any running back unit in the NFL. That was nearly triple the average drop total of all other running back units (5.6). Ty Johnson led all NFL running backs with nine drops, per Pro Football Focus. Michael Carter also struggled with drops despite his overall prowess as a receiver. Carter tied for sixth among running backs with five drops." Yes, it sucks to give up a 5th rounder, but info was reliable Houston was taking him, and he just helps in so many ways, it was worth it. Last year JD made a great pick early 4th of Carter. But even with this tremendous hit, Carter is still injury prone and one of the worst in NFL in drops. Hall is the only RB in the draft who uniquely addresses the weaknesses we have. Not only is he a durable powerful explosive runner with bunch of running College records, but he is also air threat AND a shore handed one that. Kenneth Walker, the next best guy doesn't have that element in his game. And as good a running back we could have gotten later in the draft, like we got Carter, it's just not the same when you get the best overall RB, who checks every box and addresses glaring weaknesses.
I don’t know if it was smart. I am very torn on that selection. If they use him properly it might be well worth it but I have a hard time seeing that happen. I suspect they’ll use him in a time share with Carter even though he’s a 3 down back. Wilson will put most of his targets in the dirt or too late even though he’s a good receiving back. if that’s the case, then it was a useless pick as they coulda gotten that out of Tevin Coleman
I see, with your rational any WR, TE or RB pick on the draft or free agency would have been a wasted pick because Wilson will throw it into the dirt. So the fact our RBs had the most drops in the league was also on Wilson. Check.
Everyone is eager to see Zach sustain long drives with five and ten-yard plays. The problem with that is that we have a LOT of youth on our offense. Youth = mistakes. Between Hall, Carter, Moore, Z. Wilson, G. Wilson, AVT, M. Becton, more than half of our likely offensive starters will have less than two years' experience. Even if each young guy only makes 1 significant mistake every 20 plays, that's 1 significant mistake on our offense every 3 plays. You can't sustain 10-12 play drives with one significant mistake every 3 plays. It's just not realistic. Saleh is wise to recognize that the best way to help these youngsters succeed is not to put them in a position in which you need 10-12 plays to score a touchdown. Bringing in home run hitters like Hall and G. Wilson so that we have a chance of scoring even if we don't get a long, sustained drive. IMHO, that will make a bigger difference helping Zach than the fact that Hall generally improves the run game.
It does make you wonder when those useless running backs were somehow able to catch 13 balls for 166 yards and a touchdown with Mike White throwing them passes in the Bengals game
People get too caught up on draft picks. You realize the overwhelming majority of players we heard at the draft will never be heard from in the league. How many players do you recall from round 1 last year?? If you have done your research and like a player go get him. With that said I have no issue with the trade. I know nothing of Hall from college but heard A LOT of good things about him in mocks leading up to the draft. Jets clearly had a high grade on him and the offense needs all the help it can get. What's not to like here?
It's hilarious reading all this stuff because leading up to the draft everyone kept talking about how Hall was going to be a steal at #25 for the Bills and he was going to be the homerun threat the Bills need at RB. Then the Jets get him 11 picks after that and people complain because they gave up a mid-round pick? Shows you the media bias against the Jets and people having nothing to talk about after an amazing draft by Joe Douglas. I am very excited to have the 1-2 punch of Hall and Carter. Should be a lot of fun for years to come.
I think a common misconception regarding the analytics behind trade ups is that they overwhelming end up being "bad" moves. The actual analytic makes the distinction that those trade ups more often that not are the "loser" of the trade. That can be interpreted a lot of ways. For example, the Jets traded with the Giants pick 38+146 to get 35. This means that for the Jets to "win" the trade, Breece Hall has to have a greater impact than the combination of Arnold Ebiketie (ED) and Micah McFadden (LB). Generally speaking, it's hard for 1 player to have a greater impact than 2... but it really doesn't take into account any of the individual circumstances that a team has. If Ebiketie and McFadden both became average starters while Breece Hall had 2 elite years and then completely dropped off, the Jets would "lose" the trade. However, if in those 2 elite years, Hall helped the Jets have a good offense while Zach Wilson successfully developed into a top franchise QB, It was a worthwhile trade. Yes, statistically speaking, the Jets would have lesser than 2 long term average starters. But no matter how good Ebiketie and McFadden become, they will never, ever, ever help Zach Wilson nearly as much as a couple of very good years from Breece Hall. Ultimately, most team building analytics can be (somewhat) ignored until you have a franchise QB, because you aren't winning shit without one anyway. I think you could probably make a similar argument with the AVT move, although I'm more confident about the Hall selection. Elite traits+Elite production in a power 5 conference have a pretty good translation rate into the NFL for RB's, especially with good OL play.
I wanted a LB with that pick.... but can someone name a season in recent memory the JETS were any good without a strong running game? I can't (maybe the fluke year of 2006?)
I’m always for searching in the later rounds for a bell cow, but when you do that for a decade and it doesn’t work, you have to fix the position with a better resource. It’s also nice to have a young drafted runningback rather than the past their prime Matt Forte’s of the world leading the charge.
oh I get it…I’m as frustrated with Zach’s inaccuracy as anyone, but that doesn’t mean the Hall pick was a bad idea. He was consensus #1 RB…and we got him at the top of round 2. I could give a fuck about a 5th round pick…jeez I don’t understand the angst over this trade up…5th rounders are almost always fringe players and ST guys… trade ups aren’t universally good or bad. It takes context. All those trade ups by Tanny to yield 3 and 4 player drafts are not sustainable, even if he did get pro bowlers and a hall of famer in Revis. That’s too much. giving up a damn 5th rounder to go get the top RB is a no brainer … especially for our team where we need weapons like nobody’s business.
I would find it very hard to be against a trade that involves setting up your potential franchise QB as well as humanly possible (within reason). I loved the AVT trade up because he was the best player at his position which happened to be a position of need. Loved the Hall trade up because we barely gave up anything of value and landed one of the best playmakers in the draft in the second round. Longterm building blocks vs. dart throws at potential building blocks. Now obviously those players have to pan out for it to be a win but even if we're talking hypotheticals, I'll take less shots at a better chance of winning the lottery than more shots at a worse chance.
Does losing a trade not usually mean it was a bad trade? Seems like semantics. I don't disagree that it doesn't take into account individual circumstances, but the circumstances balance out over a broad sample size and it's still usually a bad move to trade up. There's also probably some cause/effect confusion that happens there, where people think good teams can afford to rarely trade up but they're actually good teams in the first place because they rarely trade up. The comment I responded to was speaking generally against not trading up, that's all I was responding to. I even specifically said I wasn't commenting on AVT or Hall.
Bit of a tricky question because we haven't had a good offense in general over the last 10+ years other than the Fitzpatrick/Marshall/Decker year. Can't win without a good offense in the NFL unless your defense is top 5, and even then you're probably just a pretty good team instead of a very good one. There's just too much firepower in the league to be an elite team without a good offense. My point is that we shouldn't think developing a good running game alone is the key to being a good team. The key is having a high powered offense, which is more effectively done when you have a great passing game anyway. A great passing offense should be the goal.
I'm still trying to wrap my brain around the idea that having two top tier RBs with similar but yet different strengths to support a long season is a wasted pick because of Wilsons short term accuracy in the early part of the season. . As if a) Wilson has no chance to improve at all this year, mind you, I might be dreaming but after he got back his short term passes particularly to Berrios improved or b) Hall primary contribution as a RB and excellent blocking on passing downs is minor to a team that desperately needs to resurrect the running game on all three downs or c) All of the sudden selecting the best back in the draft arguably 10-15 spots after he was projected to go, and having two top backs in the back field at the same time is not a major advantage for our offense. Two studs that can grow into the system and solidify the running game for many years to come. Quite frankly the Jets have never been consistently good without a great running game. I'm betting if the trade would have been done by the Steelers or the Ravens or the Pats or you name it people here would be singing their praises. God Lord the irony of it all. Many of those that have concerns over giving up a fifth rounder, have consistently bitch and moaned that we waited too long in the rounds to get much needed top tier performers or will be the first to bitch if we had traded back instead of forward because ..well you guessed it, cant get the talent. When it comes to draft choices, quality beats quantity every time. Lets wait and see what Hall provides before we panic over a fifth rounder that may not even see the field in his first year if at all.
trading up or down is a great way to get value if you know what you're doing. If reports are accurate that Jets had a first round grade on Hall, or as high as 18 on their board why wouldn't they trade up? Each time they wait the risk/reward curve starts getting distorted. Of course it would be ideal to get him at 38 but if he gets picked at 37 in front of you that's stupid and greedy. So the issue is did they really rate him that high, and what were the other options, e.g., was there a guy who was at 19 on their board as well??? i loved the draft but am also mindful of stories like the Raiders where they recently decided not to extend any of their 2019 high draft picks but got players like Crosby in the 4th. I don't want to be cavalier with those picks
The qualifiers for “losing” the trade ensure one side must lose. It is possible in reality that both teams can have a positive outcome that works for their team. “Loser” is only bad by nature in the world of competition. Trades are not competitions.
Good points there, but keep in mind last year we literally were the worst in NFL in drops from RB position. And when Carter was injured, all was on Zach with very little help from RB. While RB didn't SEEM like a dire need, given the drops and the fact Carter is a smaller guy, injured a lot, cannot really be a 3 down back, to upgrade the position by adding a great runner, who is also great at passing game and had 1 drop all year is a big upgrade on offense, including the passing game.
