In responding to criticism about Joe Douglas during this past season, I often said that he was going to have to have a great offseason - FA and Draft - in order to really be judged as being the right guy or not. Judgment: He's the right guy.
JD drafted players that were highly regarded leading up to the draft, including at least 3 players considered the best at their respective position by many “experts”. Sad reality is history proves out there’s a much better chance that all 4 disappoint completely than there is of one of them becoming a superstar, so I’ll reserve my optimism. Case in point, the #3 and 5 overall picks of the 2017 draft are now on our team (one of which is already disappointing here as well), and our #6 overall pick of that draft is elsewhere.
You really believe that? The great QB steal? Is that what you consider the 2005 draft when Aaron Rodgers was drafted? I mean you had the likes of Alex Smith, Jason Campbell, Charlie Frye, Andrew Walter, David Greene, Kyle Orton, Stefan Lefors and Dan Orlovsky. Oh, don't forget Derek Anderson. He had quite a career. If I had to choose which draft to try and pick a FQB from, this one or last year, I'm taking last year all day long. I couldn't imagine having stuck with Sam and then then needing to draft QB this year. Yikes.
I don't think it works like this. It's definitely possible to judge a draft at the time it occurs because decisions on who to draft are only made with the information available at that time. Sometimes it's obvious that decisions were bad at the time, so it stands to reason that it's also possible to say whether decisions were good at the time. We know roughly which positions are most important for winning. We know which positions we're weakest at. We know which prospects are in which tiers, even if we may not be positive who the single best ones are within each of those tiers. We know we drafted a CB and WR (high impact positions) who were both consensus 1st or 2nd best prospects at their position. We know we drafted an edge (high impact) who was a top 4 edge prospect. We know we drafted the consensus best RB prospect in the draft. Not top players necessarily, but absolutely top prospects, which is all that matters because you draft with the information you have available at the time. Sometimes players don't work out. That doesn't change the fact that you made the right choice at the time. Making the right choices at the time across dozens of draft picks will lead to more players working out over time than making suboptimal choices at the time.
My post was referencing potential value of finding a FQB with a lower pick when evaluating who had a good draft this year?
Ravens had the best draft. Every one of their first four picks got them a player well below their value.
I give up. Can people please stop bringing out the argument "how do you know is a great draft, no one has played a down" as if we didn't know that. Yet most of the same people shit all over the Jets on day one when they don't like the draft. Fuck yes, every one here knows that the proof of the pudding is yet to come. You wont know the results till they hit the field and probably down the road two or three years. But that is not the purpose of this exercise. Every one across the media and the fans assess results based on their initial analysis of the strength of each team draft, and is based solely on the data available at this time. Take it or leave it. That rational is for every freaking team. So we can not make dumb statements like it means nothing for the Jets but on the same breath laud other teams like the Giants, Ravens and Steelers for their moves. If you don't like that early excitement or agony by the fans based on draft results, then come back in three years and we can all discuss the good bad and ugly of the picks. But for know, on paper, compared to tons of prior Jet history, JDs picks over the last two years have been unsurmountable better than the shit we did in the past, particularly under the leadership of the prior two GMs. The rest of draft history is yet to be written and we will not know for a while. That should not stop fans from rejoicing when the draft smells like success.
I think the Giants got the two best players in the draft (but I kinda disliked all their other picks, except maybe Beavers). The Texans had the best overall draft (most players that will become NFL starters). After the Giants, the best two-player combo was the Eagles (Davis and Dean).
This an excellent post. Thank you. It is essentially what JD and Saleh preach about process. You can control the process but you cannot control the results. Like you said good decisions do not always work out but over time you will do better. Following a good process and making smart decisions does not guarantee success it just improves your odds.
So they got a safety that this site would have hated the Jets to sign with #4 or #10 They drafted a C that we did love but apparently, now has T-Rex arms? They then signed an Edge with a ruptured Achilles tendon. All good players but the best draft?
Oh sorry. I got it for free. Weird. I’m definitely not a subscriber. Maybe cuz I’m overseas. He says “awesome class from Douglas”. He thinks the Jets basically filled needs and got the best guys available at three positions. He has FRPs Gardner and Wilson as the best CB and WR in the draft at their respective positions. He had Johnson at 11 on his big board. He’s doesn’t say where JJ ranks among DL. He has Hall as his number one RB as well. His only “slight” knock is not getting an OT, which was his other position of need for the Jets, after WR and CB, until late. Anyhow he gives the Jets an ‘A’. Only other team he gives an A to is Baltimore. No A-pluses. The next team after the Jets - Atlanta - gets a B-plus.
It is not the players but where they took them. We basically had four first round picks. Had we taken the same four players with our picks it might actually work but no one would be patting us on the back. Value is what separates the men from the boys.
We took a player that some on here wanted to use our #4 on at #26 We got the best CB, the best WR, the best RB according to the experts. Value? The boy just knocked it so far out of the park the ball hasn't been seen coming down yet. (on paper)
A thought on JJ So I guess JoeD just lucked out when JJ fell to 26? A player many thought would go in the top 10? But maybe JD knew something. Maybe he had a plan. He knew the draft was rich with pass rushers, which means there was a decent chance at least ONE falls to within reach of his dbl 2nd round picks. He gambled and took Sauce/Wilson early, then waited. And waited. Then picked up the phone. The likelihood of a pass rusher falling in a draft full of pass rushers was far greater than the top DB (Sauce) or his top WR (Wilson) falling into the 20's. JD might have started calling when JJ fell to 20. Then 21...etc. But either the other teams wouldn't trade, or the cost was too steep (his opinion). So he waited a bit longer. JJ fell to 24- then 25. Game on. JoeD got him at 26 with just one of his 2nd round picks (plus his 5th). When Jermiah Johnson hit the 20's, Saleh musta been pulling his hair out (LOL). Get him! Get him! But JoeD waited a bit longer. Waited for his vision to work to perfection....a Edge falls and we get him for just one of our 2nd round picks. The tension in that room must have been THICK! ANd when it finally worked out, Saleh could only shake his head at what he had just witnesses. "He's Brilliant", Saleh would say of Joe's draft. Team Jets had to have had a REALL REALLY good post-draft party. JD's plan worked to perfection and they got their 3 targets and still had a high 2nd. They really wanted Breece Hall, and I'm sure JoeD and his team figured out who they had to jump to get him. Dial up yet another small trade up...2 spots...welcome the best RB in the draft. All brilliant. To not panic. To play the draft from the start based on probabilities of an Edge guy falling. Setting up our day 2 trade for Breece the night before (most likely). Damn what a breath of fresh air.
RIght now some eagle fans are claiming they got Dean because their GM exaggerated his injury and league fell for it.
I thought I read somewhere on here it was FIFTEEN he started making calls. Imagine. You're making calls and the deal just isn't there. Over and over and over. But your guy is still not coming off the board. So you keep calling. Imagine the eyes widening in the war room with every pick that goes by and your guy is still there. Of course you have to stay ice cold on the phone. No wonder Saleh was tripping on JD at the presser afterward.
The bold in particular is music to my ears. There was a damned good reason to push, more so as soon as Stingley went second and London was drafted ahead of our ten pick. The race for top CB and WR was on. The delta value between KT and JJ or other was not as huge as the delta between Sauce and a CB in the early second. I think we got the best of both worlds.
