Stop Drafting Combine/Pro day Olympians

Discussion in 'Draft' started by FrontOfficeFanatic, Mar 21, 2022.

  1. FrontOfficeFanatic

    FrontOfficeFanatic Well-Known Member

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    I felt strongly enough about this to make a thread and hope to show you guys how this has hurt the roster.

    For all the good things Joe Douglas has done (strong trades, good negotiations, late round finds, a more stable culture) --the one thing that drives me crazy is his willingness to swing big on these athletic freaks with serious holes in their game. He's willing to bet big on athletic traits.

    One of my theories behind this is based on his background with the Ravens, where they have had literally the best player development of any sports programs, their coaches and training staff is known for growing their own talent consistently. We haven't had that.

    Just a few examples--

    Becton- generational size and athletics, but if you watch his college film he hardly had to really pass pro and anchor. The times where he had, he was beat often. Wirfs would have been the safer pick.

    Mims- great heigh and speed, but the funky Baylor system had him running pee wee routes and the kid looks lost out there

    Ashtyn Davis-belongs on a track field and not a football field. I'm not sure the kid knows what a proper angle looks like

    I could go on about Zuniga and others as well, particularly from that first draft.

    This year we will be faced with similar decisions, do we go for safe starters or do we go for the big combine names?

    Here are the ones I'm worried we will be tempted with:

    Travon Walker AKA Vernon Gholston 2.0: 275 pounds of fools gold. Limited college production. He's fast, but his 10 split shows his lack of explosion. He might go top 10 and he will be an average starter at best.

    David Ojabo: He made a killing off of Aiden Hutchinsons leftovers in college. The kid is still learning football rules and recently just got injured. STAY AWAY!

    Karlaftis: He's a freak in the gym, but he tends to magically disappear in games.
     
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  2. Poeman

    Poeman Well-Known Member

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    For the most part I agree with you. Instincts, hard work, discipline outweighs sheer physical ability. Most of those guys probably never had it hard as they came up because of their talent and physical capabilities.

    I also think we should not be so focused on high profile school names as a major indicator for how they will translate in the NFL.

    Darnold from USC vs. Allen from Wyoming
    We drafted Dee Milliner from the big time program of Bama and he was lost.
     
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  3. AndyDrums

    AndyDrums Well-Known Member

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    I've been saying for years that the combine is the biggest waste of time in all sports. Just because a player can do track and field events does not mean he can play in the NFL. So many teams, us included have drafted based predominantly upon combine results and have busted over and over.
     
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  4. cval

    cval Well-Known Member

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    I agree the Tape does not lie. You need to match what the player did on the field with the physical gifts necessary to compete in the NFL. If either side does not match you can potentially take a flier in the later rounds. I would lean to what is on tape over the underwear Olympics even in the later rounds.

    Even more so today, these kids train for the combine it is ridiculous. If one kids technique is better on a drill and gets a better time that makes them a better player? I would rather kids concentrate on football technique rather perfecting their long jump technique for the combine.
     
    #4 cval, Mar 21, 2022
    Last edited: Mar 21, 2022
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  5. FrontOfficeFanatic

    FrontOfficeFanatic Well-Known Member

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    I was very very wrong on Allen--I wouldn't want to go back and see my posts during that draft. I though Darnold dropping to us was our miracle moment as a franchise.

    I thought Allen was intriguing, but thought his mechanics and accuracy was a mess. I think with Allen, you see what happens when an athlete has big time talent with big time heart/work ethic. He put in a lot of work and took his lumps to become what he is.

    In fairness, Mel Kiper said he was top 10 in QB's he's ever scouted and looks like he was very right. Let's hope Kiper is wrong on Wilson--said he rated lower than Daniel Jones.
     
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  6. The Dark Knight

    The Dark Knight Well-Known Member

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    When you are picking at #4 and #10 there is no reason to reach on one of these "Comebine/Pro Day Olympians" that you speak of. I get when GM's take chances later in the 1st or later rounds but I definitely agree you can't let that change your view on some of the top prospects in the draft. It does seem to happen every year. The hope is it works FOR the Jets and it is other teams that are impressed by the combine and Pro days.

    I get you including Becton, but I remember the talk up to the draft was he would go Top 5, probably #4, so Becton dropping to #11 felt like a steal to me. Still might be. Wirfs seems better just from a reliability stand point at the moment, but taking Mekhi at #11 wasn't some crazy swing by JD.
     
  7. Borat

    Borat Well-Known Member

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    I agree with the premise that people should not drastically increase value of these workout warriors because combine/workouts is only a smaller part of evaluation compared game performance, but some of the example above I am not sure are accurate. Becton had a really good first year in NFL. He was a good player in College. What did him in are injuries and weight issues. Wirfs was a better producer in College, no doubt about it, but he player RT there, which is much easier. Yes, in retrospect Wirfs should have been the choice, but Becton I feel was worth 11th pick at the time.

    Also, athleticism does matter to some degree. You are going to be facing elite athletes in NFL, and all things being equal/close, it makes a lot of sense to pick a better athlete. Other examples: Karlaftis, Ojabo. These guy had good production in College and were highly rated before Combine. The one who came up biggest is Walker. I see him top 3 in some mocks. That I cannot justify - that's too huge of a jump just based on athleticism alone and rather mediocre production in College. Was mostly in mid twenties before the combine.
     
  8. Noam

    Noam Well-Known Member

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    One thing we have learned about a JD and RS type player is character matters. Most of his picks and FAs are team captains and love football. They value culture, work ethic and people that live and breathe football more than anything else. It has helped change the locker room culture and it maybe they are right that it will help turn us into winners.

    I really like this but the character element likely limits their draft board a lot. It also makes it hard as fans as we often get little information about players character and leadership skills.
     
  9. Jonathan_Vilma

    Jonathan_Vilma Well-Known Member

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    Idzik targeted the same traits. Just saying. It matters, but it doesn’t always matter as much as people think. You don’t have to be a captain and leader. You just ideally want them to not be scumbags.
     
  10. Jets69

    Jets69 Well-Known Member

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    Come in Vernon Gholston paid off for us, he was a combine warrior
     
  11. CotcheryFan

    CotcheryFan 2018 ROTY Poster Award Winner

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    I'm still on the Thibodeaux train even with the "character issues" which have arisen. They appear to be more noise than red flags.
     
  12. Jonathan_Vilma

    Jonathan_Vilma Well-Known Member

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    Yeah those “flaws” are a bunch of bullshit. The guy has thought once in his life about life after football and that’s poorly framed as a negative. He commanded double teams his entire career and played hard for a program that ended up as a much worse program because their coach was disinterested at the end.

    It’s not like Thibs was seen hanging out with the Crips.
     
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  13. stinkyB

    stinkyB 2009 Best Avatar Award Winner

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    [​IMG]
     
  14. Rockinz

    Rockinz Well-Known Member

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    Combine warriors scare me too. The combine for me only holds weight for QBs because you can clearly see their throwing motion and for WRs where you can see their hands and cuts on routes. When it comes to position players it’s more an olympics as you stated.

    walker played on one of the best DL in college history so for me it’s hard to say he will be a bust but it’s also hard to say he wasn’t a product of his environment.

    Ojabo is ultra raw. I also think he fed off AHs double teams

    Karlaftis is boom or bust. He has some good traits with his bullrush and motor. When he got hands on him by tackles it was over.
     
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  15. boozer32

    boozer32 Well-Known Member

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    Rockinz when are you doing your 7 round mock?
     
  16. Rockinz

    Rockinz Well-Known Member

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    I did a Jets full draft already and will do another closet to the draft. I also intend to do a first round mock soon that will go to pick 38 just sifting through prospects every day.
     
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  17. jetophile

    jetophile Bruce Coslet's Daughter

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    Good post as well as OP. I agree, but seeing that it is what it is, it would be a better litmus test IMO if they put A LOT more attention on position specific drills. I don't know why this is downplayed and overlooked so much.

    Yep, it's great if someone can run faster than a speeding bullet or leap tall buildings in a single bound, but it doesn't paint a complete picture. It makes no sense to me why they don't hone in on the specific position drills aspect more. Is this just me? o_O
     
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  18. chandler

    chandler Well-Known Member

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    I agree to the extent that you should not get hypnotized by the numbers but you're also a fool if you don't heavily consider them

    There are Vernon Gholstons and Javon Kearse's

    There are Jon Ross's and DK Metcalf's

    it's important information. You can add mass and strength to an athlete but you cannot suddenly create quick twitch muscle fibers. Conversely you should be able to coach a player up, but this assumes the player is devoted to his craft and willing to learn

    the numbers should be considered along with a bunch of other factors like the highly speculative and subjective factors like what the guy has between the ears, and how he handles adversity
     
  19. All Gas No Shake

    All Gas No Shake Well-Known Member

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    you, in 2020 ...
     
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