Let's assume that the conventional wisdom is true: 1st and 2nd round picks typically have a strong likelihood of panning out. 3rd and 4th round picks are medium odds of panning out, and at a minimum are a good shot at providing depth. 5th - 7th round picks are a crap shoot. Some portion of the 3rd - 7th rounders will be every bit as good as the 1st and 2nd rounders, but the odds go down significantly. For every Tyreke Hill, there are a lot of Not-Tyrekes in the 5th round. But this year, Saleh and Douglas will have an information advantage regarding the 3rd-7th rounders because they are coaching at the Senior Bowl. They will have a lot more time than any other coaching staff to see the players' work ethics, their capacity to learn new things, adapt to new schemes, and otherwise evaluate. Assuming Saleh & Co have good eyes, the Jets should have a significantly higher hit rate than other teams on picks in rounds 3-7. And given how good of a job they did scouting finds like Michael Carter and Elijah Moore -- both of whom went much lower than they should have -- I suspect they'll get a good sense of who will pan out in the later rounds. Other teams will be willing to throw lots of lower-odds 3rd-7th round picks into a trade for a high 1st-round pick. And since the Jets' information advantage make the 3rd-7th round picks more valuable than they would be to other teams, let's get lots. It would also save quite a bit on cap space, which we could use on a couple more strong veterans.
5th to 7th round picks aren't a crap shoot. They're where your special teamers and depth players come from. A lot of them don't work out but a lot work out in quiet ways that nobody much notices. Very few people know or care who the 4th and 5th leading tacklers on your special teams units are. Hell, very few people know who is leading the team in special teams tackles and balls downed inside the 10. For a guy with a great plan the late rounds produce a lot more than that. Mike Shanahan's Broncos used to take RB's in the 5th to 7th rounds. They were looking for guys with speed and some power, capable of fighting through blocks and making tough tackles. They were the gunners on special teams and the Broncos special teams were pretty good as a result. Terrell Davis was a 6th round pick drafted to be yet another gunner and oh my what the Broncos found in him when yet another fast tough guy turned out to be a great runner as well.
Initially, I was for a trade down, but am not any longer. The Jets need quality topnotch players as much as they need quantity. With picks #4 and #10 they have the opportunity to do that. They can solidify their OL by taking either Ekownu or Neal at #4 and give Zach of dominant, versatile, big target WR in Treylon Burks at #10. In the 2nd they can add a TE, a S or LB. If JD wants to trade down in the 2nd I won't have a problem as long as he gets the TE we need at the top of the 2nd round.
Yes it is. As long as JD focuses on surrounding Zach with talent and fixing the OL to protect him, he won't go wrong.
Building up a collection of round 3-7 picks is a fine, but trading out of the top 10 to do it for a team some woefully low on top level talent is a terrible way to do it. Considering roster size limitations and guaranteed money that even late round picks get, 4 quarters does not equal a dollar. The Seahawks did something in this vane a few years ago. when after trading Frank Clark to KC had 5 picks (including 21 and 29) into 11 picks. If you wanted to do something similar with picks 35 and 38 and as the chips, I'm a lot more open to it. https://www.si.com/nfl/seahawks/gm-...wizardry-will-be-put-to-ultimate-test-in-2021
The Rams are a unique case because they have two home grown superstars (Donald, Kupp), traded for another (Ramsey) and then traded for two above average veterans (Miller, Stafford). Above all though, they’ve supplemented their team with a boat load of picks in rounds 2-4, a lot of which are solid contributors in some way shape or form. Players like Henderson/Akers, Troy Reeder, all of their safeties (Rapp, Burgess, Fuller) and most of their offensive lineman through the years among others. This isn’t too far off of the draft volume approach in rounds 2-4 that Belichick has taken over the years and shot for those rounds to add value. Cheaper contracts, hungrier coachable players due to wanting to strike a big second contract after missing out on a significant draft pay day, etc. Now I don’t know that you should shoot for getting out of the first round, but I’d even be good with two trade downs. One significant (down to 9 to 12 from 4) and one lesser (10 to 14-16). We have tons of holes on this roster.
I like the idea of trading down into the middle of the first round but not packaging all of our high picks for a bunch of mid rounders.
I would like to agree with you but our history says otherwise. I am really hoping last year's draft wasn't a fluke and that we have good scouts for a change.
The only people that benefit from the trade downs are the teams your GM leave good players on the board for. If I’m a GM and I see other GMs trade down, it would make me very happy, I’ll step right up and select a player I wanted instead of a lesser player that may not develop.
I think Stafford is actually a top 5 QB at this point. He probably has been for most of the last half of his career. It was just masked by the goddawful franchise he played for. His QB ratings have been strong over a lot of drop backs. His QBR's have been middling strong, however given the context that is not surprising. When your team blows chunks a lot of the easy opportunities other QB's get just aren't there.
Quality over Quantity and this year we kinda have both. JD needs to hit on realistically 5 starters. It’s make it or break it.
Great comment! Trading down loses you great players! I'm old enough to remember the 1997 draft in which the Jets gave up the rights to draft Orlando Pace AND Walter Jones in two trade downs, and ended up with something like James Farrior, Leon Johnson, and Terry Day. In the same draft, Kansas City traded up with Tennessee, acquiring the rights to Tony Gonzalez for picks which ended up being Kenny Holmes and Scott Sanderson. So I heartily agree with this assessment. My only quibble is that this seems to be a year in which great edge rushers might well be available in the second round. If one is, we should go edge with a second round pick and go for LB's and DB's in the third and fourth rounds.
Jets staff coaching the Senior Bowl should give them a big advantage. This will mostly be true in rounds 2-7. Christian Walker should be thanking Cooper Kupp for helping to increase his draft stock.
I don't think for one moment that coaching one side in a college all-star game gives anyone an edge in evaluating players. All the teams had scouts and coaches at the games. From now until the draft all teams will scrutinize these and other players with a fine tooth comb. By the time the draft rolls around, I doubt the Jets, especially the Jets, will have much if any advantage.
I disagree. They had the opportunity to speak with these prospects every day, get to know them better than other teams will, see firsthand how quickly they learn and how hard they are willing to work. They also get better insights into the character for these players and how much they love or don't love the game.
Typically, only half of Rd 1 prospects become better than average players. We need a solid draft, but the Ultimate success or failure of the JD / Saleh era depends on Z. Wilson.
