Not to nitpick but interior OL and TE are not typically lumped into "premium positions". My take on Dean, besides not being in one of those premium positions, is that his special skillet seems to be that he's a bull when blitzing the interior. If we were in a Dick Lebeau or Rex Ryan system were that's something the MLB was asked to do frequently it would chance the equation a lot. The other thing is that when someone at a non-premium position is power ranked so high it's because they're SO much better than the average prospect at their position. George Karlaftis wouldn't make the top 10 DE prospects in the last 5 years, and neither Thibs or Hutch would barely crack the top 5 at best. Meanwhile Hamilton is probably the best prospect in the last decade or more. Also people are underestimating how rare high level deep safeties there are with ball skills are. This isn't running back or box safety.
I can't comment on specific draftees because I don't follow the college game and I don't trust highlight reels on YouTube. But I will say that I like the way you hit the key areas - offensive line, pass-rush, wide receiver, tight end, safety - repeatedly, often in both free agency and the draft. I like the idea of trading down to get more draft capital as well. Overall, I would be excited if the offseason shaped up like this.
Perhaps traditionally up until about 5 years ago this was true, but the game has changed. So much of an offense's success is due directly to the QB that protecting him has become even more important, hence stud OL are a premium. And TEs have become much more of a key to big offensives - credit (or blame) Brady and BB for that. Since they had so much success, other teams in the past few have copied them and have had success also. How are you basing your assertion that Hamilton is the best prospect in the last decade or more? You at Safety or including all positions? In either case how can you really quantify this claim? I'm not trying to be snarky, I really want to know how you evaluate this. Actually I'm not underestimating how rare great Safeties are, but I AM questioning their overall impact relative to more premium positions. If the Jets were already a playoff caliber team I would have no problem taking Hamilton because they would have much fewer, if any, real holes. But when you need an Edge, one or more OL, WR, TE, using a top 15 pick on a Safety seems like a luxury they can't afford. I can see where taking Hamilton would offset taking a stud LB maybe, but I think I'd still prefer the stud LB in this situation.
Well if you're putting interior OL in "premium positions" you're basically leaving safety, linebacker, and possibly defensive tackle as "non premium", which kinda waters down your definition. And going by draft history only 3 TE's have been taken top 15 overall since 2007, and in many years no TE gets taken in the first round at all. As far as ranking prospects it's all to varying degrees subjective but many draft analysts are calling him the best prospect since Sean Taylor and as someone who's watched a lot of Hamilton's tape I agree with them. The only prospects that I can think of in that stratosphere would be Eric Berry, Earl Thomas, Jamal Adams, Minkah Fitzpatrick, and Derwin James. And of those Fitzpatrick and Thomas (maybe Berry?) were the only ones that were looked at as elite free safeties which is the much more valuable of skill set.
Dean at 10 is a massive reach....massive. We need to sign a TE AND draft two of them? no DL or OL in first round?
Initially, I was more like you in my thinking about Hamilton and the S position. While I still doubt that JD would take Hamilton, a ballhawking S like Hamilton could totally change the dynamic in our secondary. Hall had 0 interceptions this past season and only 1 in 2020. He only had 5 in 4 years at Virginia. He is known more as a shutdown-type CB rather than a ballhawk. Echols had 1 interception in two years at Kentucky, and had 2 interceptions this past season. Adding a S like Hamilton who would add 80+ tackles and 8-10 PDs and 4-5 interceptions could be huge in our D, and lead to winning more games. While many are saying the Jets need to draft a CB high, I disagree with that, except for the idea of adding a true ballhawk to our secondary. I'd rather add a vet CB who is more of a ballhawk than Hall or Echols, and then if JD added Hamilton as well, that could give our secondary 7-10 interceptions a season which would be huge. I'm not saying that JD should take Hamilton, but I won't hate it if he does.
I'm not disputing that Hamilton may be elite. My point is that if Safety is the best player on the team you're not going to win much, probably not even make the playoffs. Put it another way: has anyone ever traded up for a Safety? If they have, this would be a good year for Douglas to listen to offers and trade the pick and get more resources to build up the talent instead of investing it in one great Safety.
You drafted Burk's so I am sold on this....Ruckert will be interesting to me. He is a die hard Jets fan and his dream, is to play for the Jets
Here's my plan for this Jet's offseason: let the Jets pay JD and his staff to improve the team and I'll see what other, more knowledgeable Jet fans (Ian of Jetscentral, Jets X-factor, Jake Asman) have to say about the changes.
Overall solid idea. I do agree with maximus that the d-line needs more help. We can't cut rankins and not replace him. we need 4 DTs minimum. I think rankins stays personally. He's good value at 5.5 million and a solid 3rd DT who excels in pass rush. as far as FAs go I think njoku will get closer to the 10-12 range. I also doubt JD doesn't sign a lineman somewhere. he's signed them every offseason. I also don't know why we wouldn't bring back kroft for as cheap as he is to be a TE3. I think you went too heavy on TEs. 1 FA and 1 pick is enough for the draft I know you said you hadn't seen him yet but look at cameron thomas with our 1st 2nd rounder. I think you'll like him a lot. better then ebikitie, I don't think cine last that long either. he's slated to early 2nd late 1st. of course it could happen though. I know you like burks a lot but I still don't thin he's worth a top 10 pick. dean isn't worth 9 either. we are picking 4 and 10 and in your scenerio 9 and 10 after a trade down but we missed out on any blue chip guys. this draft is kinda devoid of them. last year we got 2 picking 2 and trade up to 14. JD likes his blue chip guys. this year it's only hamilton, neal, KT,stingley and hutch. I'd be pretty upset if we walked out of this draft without one of them. I don't think teams will be desperate for QBs that high in this QB class. I think a trade down from 10 is more likely. I don't think denver even drafts a QB I think they address it before the draft meaning the teams wanting one can fight for the 10 spot to get it in front of washington. of course that's all speculation though. for the ending roster itself you are short on WRs. no way we only take 5 into the season. it's 6 at least. I don't think we cut edoga. he's solid depth and cheap for 1 more year. I think moses goes on to start somewhere. he doens't want to be a backup. I'm not big on the interior depth either on the o-line. your starting a rookie at RG and your primary backups are late round rookies. with the 4th round pick we could get ed ingram who has 2nd round talent. CB is also an issue here. I know we can't fix it all but the defense doens't look much improved. hardee isn't really a CB. it's the same group we have now. I think adding a legit contender in there makes sense instead of max mitchel we could get kylar gordon or instead of broeker we could get a josh jobe. we alsoa ren't moving sherwood back to safety. and I don't think campbell signs that cheap. he made 1st team all pro. he's gonna get some money. it log jams the Lbers too. we are only going to start 2. we mostly play nickel. so either mosley at 17 mil, top 10 pick dean, or expensive free agent don't start. We are also lacking the playmakers. Overall I like the idea and concepts and get where you are coming from, but the final results don't look great especially in the secondary
Thanks for your response. Yeah, after thinking about it more, I agree that we do need help at DT, so my next attempt will include an addition at DT. You could be right about Njoku, but I think Spotrac is usually pretty close with their projections. Remember that he's not much of a blocker, and is mostly a receiver. Did he even start for Cleveland? Even if he did start, I think the fact that he's not a blocker, will limit how much he will get. JD could definitely sign an OL. I planned to initially sign James Daniels, then when I saw what he and others were projected to get, I switched down to Laken Tomlinson, but couldn't make that work, either, and that's why I wound up not signing one and instead taking Zion Johnson in the 2nd round. If JD were to sign Daniels or Tomlinson, there's no sense in drafting an OG early, and he could wait until the 4th or 5th round and take someone like Dohnovan West of AZ St. who can play C or OG or Nick Broeker of Ole Miss. I looked at some video of Cam Thomas, Sam Williams, David Ojabo, and Logan Hall last night. I do like Thomas, not as much as Ebiketie or Ojabo at this point, but I like him. He's a very different player than Ebiketie or Ojabo. He's 2-3 inches taller and 20 pounds heavier. He has played DT, and is more quick than fast, and may be the best Edge in the draft vs the run. He was impressive how he got of blocks at made plays vs the run, whereas a lot of the others either can't get off blocks, or just don't spot the ball carrier who basically went right past them or behind them quite often in the videos I watched of the different Edge prospects. I don't think he has the same ceiling as a pass rusher as Ebiketie. He's stiff in the hips and doesn't have a lot of bend or flexibility. Ebiketie has that flexibility/bend, as does both Ojabo and Enagbare. Sam Williams doesn't have that flexibility or bend, either. Have you looked at any video of Logan Hall. If not, I recommend that you do. He looks and sounds a bit intriguing. I understand your thinking #10 is too early for Burks, but with his size/speed, athleticism, blocking abliity, flexibility, and hands, I think he shoots up the draft board following the Combine and workouts. He's a perfect fit for the Jets scheme. IMO he offers everything London offers and a lot more. I definitely think both Dean and Lloyd are worthy of top 15 picks. They are fast, complete LBs, are leaders, have great instincts, and are sound tacklers. IMO either would make a big difference in our D, both in terms of stopping the run, and covering TEs and RBs over the middle.Look at where Parsons went last year, and neither is that far behind Parsons imo. The Jets may opt for Lloyd since they will be coaching him in the Sr. Bowl. You must have a different definition of "blue chip players" than I do, and that's fine, but I consider both Lloyd and Dean blue chip players, as I do Ekwonu and Linderbaum. Burks may not be considered a blue chip player now, but if I were a betting man, I'd bet that after he has been in the NFL a couple of seasons people will think he is. I'm also not convinced that Hutchinson is a "blue chip player." He had a great season, no doubt about it and is a hard worker, but it is concerning to me that he only had one year of elite production as a DE. I'm not as used to watching DEs in isolation as I am QBs or WRs. It's been so long since the Jets have had the opportunity to draft a topnotch Edge prospect, that I haven 't focused on them in over a decade, so I have a harder time tellling if what one does in college will translate to the NFL. I agree on QBs, but hope that Pickett will blow the lid off at the Combine and workouts and the Lions will decide to take him instead of Hutchinson. That's not likely, however. You could be right about Denver not taking a QB and about JD trading down from #10 rather than #4. In one way, I think I'd rather him trade down from #10. IMO that would increase the likelihood that he would take Burks. I don't think Burks will make it to pick #35. My mind could change by the draft, but right now, I would be very disappointed if the Jets didn't wind up with Burks in their draft class no matter who else they drafted. That's how much I like Burks. Yeah, I agree that 5 WR is too few. I was trying to be conservative and not say well JD can play games with contracts, so we can sign this guy, and this guy, etc. In my ver. 2.0, I will correct that along with the DT and probably the CB position. At CB, I think we need to sign a vet FA rather than draft another rookie, but think we need a ballhawk-type CB. I think we need to draft a backup OT, especially with some concerns about Becton's weight and health, and don't think there's much in FA. I think Edoga needs to go. He's awful imo. I took Broeker because we need depth at OG, he's a great scheme fit, and unless Clark is healthy and quickly develops, I don't think we have anyone who would be even an average backup. You're probably right about Campbell not signing for that little. Someone will probably give him $10 million or close to it. It was also a big of overkill at LB. With that money plus some JD cap magic, I can maybe either sign Tomlinson, Daniels, or a CB, or maybe even a CB and a depth-type OG. We don't know what the Jets will do with Sherwood or Nasirildeen. If they do decide to draft a Lloyd or Dean, there's less need for both Sherwood and Nasirildeen to stay at LB since we have Q. Williams, and with the hole we have at S, really needing 4 safeties, they could decide to move one of Sherwood/Nasirildeen back to S. They wouldn't even had to draft Dean or Lloyd to make that move. They could decide to draft Brandon Smith or some other LB in the 2nd or 3rd round who already knows how to play LB and who has better size, and end the experiment with Nasirildeen and Sherwood. Sherwood supposedly was good at setting the edge, but didn't do much in coverage. Nasirildeen's season was pretty much shot, so I don't know how much development or learning he did. Anyway, thanks again for your feedback. You've give me some food for thought, and I've enjoyed the discussion thus far.
Yeah i think at the end of the day, reading evryone's offseasons 2 things are pretty clear 1) the jets/JD have a lot of work to do 2) we have a lot of flexibility to overhaul the roster it'll be interesting to see what JD does.
Dean is too small to go in the top 10. Also this is gotta be one of worst FA classes so I don't see much that the Jets will do as the Jets are tighter than a friend of mine who still has his communion money. What I do see is us taking another tackle in the top 10 and then take Traylon or Olave at the 10 spot (London is not going to fly). As for the later picks, who the fuck knows.
this is how I feel as well we’ve been there…we had Adams as a first team All Pro…best p,Ayer on our team…he even got sacks for us…didn’t mean shit I am not on board taking a safety as our first pick…the only safety I think is worth that would be Ed Reed…and he went in the 20s…I remember because we passed on him to draft Bryan Thomas…brilliant
Thanks for your response. Is it his size, because he's a LB, or do you just think he's not good enough to be a top 10 pick? If it is his size, Devin Lloyd is 6'3" 232 lbs. Is that big enough? The Jets will be coaching him in the Sr. Bowl and they may like him. Would you object to their taking Lloyd at #10? If so, whom would you like for them to take at #10?
