So as we watched the Divisional Round and saw Mahomes, Allen, and Burrow show off what the AFC will have to overcome for the next 10-15 years. Many of us have asked ourselves, “How do we get that?” I felt that I had the answer, but I wanted to see if there were any trends that either supported or deflated my gut feeling. Let’s take a look at the QB’s who have made the playoffs over the last 11 years (2011-2021). I listed playoff appearances/seasons started in the period, and Super Bowl wins/appearances; obviously there will be 2 SB appearances and 1 win added this year. I did the research myself so I do believe I have all of them, and some are a little odd because if a player started approximately 8 games I gave them credit for 1 season of starting. Tom Brady 11/11 (SBx4/6) Aaron Rodgers 9/11 Russell Wilson 8/10 (SBx1/2) Ben Roethlisberger 8/10 Alex Smith 7/9 Drew Brees 6/10 Andy Dalton 5/10 Patrick Mahomes 4/4 (SBx1/2) Peyton Manning 4/4 (SBx1/2) Andrew Luck 4/7 Joe Flacco 4/8 (SBx1/1) Cam Newton 4/9 (SBx0/1) Ryan Tannehill 4/10 Matt Ryan 4/11 (SBx0/1) Matthew Stafford 4/11 Josh Allen 3/4 Lamar Jackson 3/4 Nick Foles 3/5 (SBx1/1) Jared Goff 3/6 (SBx0/1) Carson Wentz 3/6 Dak Prescott 3/6 Philip Rivers 3/9 Matt Schaub 2/3 Jimmy Garoppolo 2/4 (SBx0/1) Deshaun Watson 2/4 Mitch Trubisky 2/4 Colin Kaepernick 2/5 (SBx0/1) Carson Palmer 2/6 Kirk Cousins 2/7 Eli Manning 2/8 (SBx1/1) Derek Carr 2/8 Mac Jones 1/1 Jalen Hurts 1/1 Brock Osweiler 1/1 Brian Hoyer 1/1 Tim Tebow 1/1 Joe Burrow 1/2 Kyler Murray 1/3 Robert Griffin III 1/3 Christian Ponder 1/3 Tony Romo 1/4 Tyrod Taylor 1/4 Baker Mayfield 1/4 Marcus Mariota 1/4 Teddy Bridgewater 1/4 Case Keenum 1/4 Blake Bortles 1/5 Best Playoff Appreance % (Minimum 4 Seasons Starting): Tom Brady 1.00 Patrick Mahomes 1.00 Peyton Manning 1.00 Aaron Rodgers 0.82* Russell Wilson 0.80 Ben Roethlisberger 0.80* Alex Smith 0.78 Josh Allen 0.75 Lamar Jackson 0.75 Drew Brees 0.60* Nick Foles 0.60 Andrew Luck 0.57 Andy Dalton 0.50 Joe Flacco 0.50 Jared Goff 0.50 Carson Wentz 0.50 Dak Prescott 0.50 Jimmy Garoppolo 0.50 Deshaun Watson 0.50 Mitch Trubisky 0.50 Cam Newton 0.44 Ryan Tannehill 0.40 Matt Ryan 0.36 Matthew Stafford 0.36 Philip Rivers 0.33 Carson Palmer 0.33 Kirk Cousins 0.29 Eli Manning 0.25 Derek Carr 0.25 Tony Romo 0.25 Tyrod Taylor 0.25 Baker Mayfield 0.25 Teddy Bridgewater 0.25 Marcus Mariota 0.25 Case Keenum 0.25 Blake Bortles 0.20 Super Bowl Appearance Super Bowl Win * Indicates Win was prior to 2011 This is obviously not a perfect metric but it does suggest that if your franchise QB is not getting to the playoffs at a 60% clip at minimum, it’s pretty unlikely they will advance to a SB, let alone win a championship. Particularly in the age of 7 playoff spots per conference, you should really be on pace for 50% in year 4 of a rookie drafted QB at minimum. That means by the end of a young QB’s 3rd year, if there isn’t significant progress and at least 1 playoff appearance… You should probably be running for the next rookie ASAP. It also means a player like Mayfield who missed the playoffs in his 4th year to fall to 25% should not even be considered a long term option. This list is littered with players who at one point or another were considered “Top 10 QB’s” but haven’t been the elite player dragging their teams to the players. Based on the last 20 years, it’s actually more likely for elite QB’s to make multiple Super Bowls than it is for good QB’s to make just 1. I think that there is a 3 year window for a rookie QB to show that he has the ability to be an elite player at the position before you move on. As fans we try to talk ourselves into our own players, but this should be a pretty firm rule to stick to otherwise you prolong the inevitable. The way I see this data is that if you’re dead set on winning championships, the traditional development process for a QB is no longer relevant. If you are a new GM for a franchise in flux, you need to strike as soon as possible on a QB you believe in, and start the kid right away. You need to find out what they are as quickly as possible, otherwise you may not have time for a 2nd swing. If they can’t learn and overcome their own inexperience, the league is not going to ease them in so better find out quick. I love how aggressive certain organizations are in their attempt to ensure they find that player. LAR, SF, KC all surrendered significant assets to go get what they hope is an improvement over what many deemed “acceptable”. Teams who should have made a move last year: CAR, ATL, WAS and DEN. Teams who should be doing they’re best to make moves this year: NYG, CAR, DEN, WAS, IND, PIT, CLE and I would say MIA and probably PHI. Team who I’m extremely grateful made the move last year: NYJ. The league has changed and in this sense, patience is no longer a virtue. We frankly should hope for major strides in year 2 for Wilson, and the Jets should probably still prioritize offense for at least one more year to help him get there. I’d rather make the Wildcard Round and have the defense shredded but Wilson look legit in a loss than miss the playoffs and have both a middling offense and defense. You can fix a defense real quick when the time comes.
As always Max, a very thorough and fair analysis. And I completely agree that teams in today's NFL have to be aggressive in finding and going after a QB who they believe can be their FQB, which is exactly what Douglas did. The reason I pushed so hard for him to take Wilson at #2 is that I felt he was the best QB available, AND the Jets were in a position to take him without having to use additional assets to get him. That is the biggest flaw in the argument that they should've traded back. Even if it's true that each year there will always be at least one FQB-caliber QB available, unless you actually tank to ensure getting the #1 pick, you're going to have to use assets to trade up, and that's ONLY if the team with the #1 is willing to give it up. And that's where the second part of the problem comes in: if you traded back and were successful in adding a few studs as a result, that's good, but bad: good because you improved you team talent; bad because it probably means you win a few more games and fall farther back in the draft order, which means that it will cost you even MORE to trade up to get your QB - again assuming the team you want to trade with is willing. And no matter how good those "studs" you acquired by trading back are, they won't ever make up for the lack of a FQB as your analysis shows - and again, this is a best case scenario where all the "extra" guys you drafted became studs, which isn't really very likely. Zach may not work out, in which case as you noted, JD will then have to find another guy, but if JD drafts as well as he did last year, and does at least as well but hopefully better in FA, the talent around Wilson will be much better, Zach will be much better because of his experience this year, as will LaFleur, so we ought to know with a high degree of certainty next season if Zach is the FQB or not.
Thanks Max. It’s really ugly looking at the outlook of the AFC right now. Josh Allen, Mahomes and Burrow look like they’re going to be staples at the top of the playoff bracket for a decade+ (although I don’t underestimate the Bengals ability to fuck that up). Toss Lamar Jackson and Herbert in there, along with the Broncos as probably the best destination for Rodgers or Wilson and the AFC looks much tougher than the NFC. The NFC North and South are both in shambles if Rodgers leaves and Brady retires.
Broncos will hire Dan Quinn as HC, he brings in Darrell Bevell former Seattle OC to be their OC, and then they'll swing a move for Russ Wilson
Kind of like back in 2008 when the AFC had Brady, Manning, Roethlisberger, Rivers, and Palmer Edit: And Favre, I guess
Man, it's really dire when you lay it all out like that. Has a conference ever had this many elite, young QB's at once? I don't think it's ever even been close. Allen, Mahomes, Herbert, Burrow. Yeesh. Four of the top 5-6 QB's in the league and they're all 26 or younger.
According to this metric if Herbert doesn't make the playoffs next year they should consider moving on. Percentage of playoff appearances have nothing to do with a QBs future potential. Good teams with talented rosters go to the playoffs. A QB is an important piece of talent, but this metric is silly.
Well Zach is really going to get his chance to prove how great he is at studying film now isn't he. I think the Jets need to draw from that old saying that even the longest journey starts with the first step. Don't worry about Super Bowls, the fact that Josh Allen should be on your roster, playoffs etc. Just make sure you draft solid NFL starters in this upcoming draft, build your team as best you can, and let the chips fall where they may. If they can just keep having drafts like the last one and Saleh/Wilson keep on top of things it'll work out eventually.
Well, to be fair there are 2 points I’ll make. 1. He will almost definitely make the playoffs next year. 2. All he had to do was beat the Raiders to get into the playoffs, and he couldn’t quite manage it. If, with all of his talent, he can’t make the playoffs for 3 consecutive years, with all of the offensive talent the Chargers have, he should be questioned.
Yeah but its too heavily weighted towards the QB contributions. Stafford never made the palyoffs until he had a better team. Matt Ryan rarely makes the playoffs. But Flacco, Golf and Wentz do half the time? It doesn't really add up. You become a playoff team by having a playoff level roster.
??? sounds like ABSOLUTE ZERO responibility for the teams D. I'd wonder what AVG (DVOA??) the above QB's D's were over the seasons you analysed. By quartiles. I
its dire from the outside because the Jets don’t have one to go into battle with. I just hope Zach can enter that upper echelon…because you feel you have a chance against any team with the right QB. Honestly makes me want JD more to surround Zach with as much dangerous and top notch talent he can find. He has the work habits and the right traits to be a star.
Technically he made it at a 30% clip prior to the Rams. Time will tell if he becomes a statistical outlier, or if he fits comfortably into the statistical trend. Eli Manning is proof that there can be a exceptions to the rule, but I’d rather try and find a 60% guy than wait around to see if my 25% guy is a Derek Carr or an Eli Manning. I’d also note that those 60% players account for 60% of every SB QB start in the past 20 seasons, and 80% of every SB QB win in that same time frame.
