Zach Wilson’s NFL-leading mark in key stat sends a clear message to Jets

Discussion in 'New York Jets' started by NYJ1970, Jan 16, 2022.

  1. NYJ1970

    NYJ1970 Well-Known Member

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    Zach Wilson’s NFL-leading mark in key stat sends a clear message to Jets
    Zach Wilson led the NFL in a stat that no team wants their quarterback to lead in, sending a clear message to the New York Jets.

    Zach Wilson topped the NFL in the wrong kind of metric
    New York Jets quarterback Zach Wilson finished his rookie season with lackluster numbers in the box score. He completed 213 of 383 passes (55.6%) for 2,334 yards, nine touchdowns, and 11 interceptions, earning a 69.7 passer rating that ranked last among qualifiers.

    The lowliness of those numbers is not entirely his fault, though.

    Wilson led all qualified NFL quarterbacks in a category that no team should want their young quarterback to lead the league in: drop rate.

    According to Pro Football Focus, Wilson had 12.7% of his catchable passes dropped, which was the highest rate in the NFL among 35 qualified quarterbacks.

    Not only did Wilson rank No. 1 in the category, but he was in his own stratosphere

    1. Zach Wilson, 12.7%
    2. Jacoby Brissett, 9.6%
    3. Sam Darnold, 9.3%
    4. Trevor Lawrence, 9.3%
    5. Baker Mayfield, 9.0%
    6. Matthew Stafford, 8.0%
    7. Justin Herbert, 7.9%
    8. Ben Roethlisberger, 7.8%
    9. Justin Fields, 7.6%
    10. Daniel Jones, 7.6%
    Now, as I have written about before, it’s important to note that a high drop rate can be an indicator of poor accuracy on the quarterback’s part. Many “drops” come on imperfect throws, so, naturally, inaccurate quarterbacks will create more opportunities for their receivers to drop passes.

    This hypothesis is supported by the talent level of the quarterbacks at the top of the drop leaderboard. Look at Wilson’s company in the top five: Jacoby Brissett, Sam Darnold, Trevor Lawrence, and Baker Mayfield. All four quarterbacks were poor this year.

    In 2020, the top five quarterbacks in drop rate were Carson Wentz, Daniel Jones, Drew Lock, Andy Dalton, and Tua Tagovailoa. All five had rough seasons.

    Wilson can certainly own a piece of his drop rate. His accuracy was erratic at times, especially early in the year, and some of the “drops” his receivers got tagged with could have been thrown much better.

    However, the fact that Wilson’s drop rate was that much higher than the rest of the NFL is a clear indictment of his pass-catchers’ enormous struggles.

    Just look at the separation between Wilson’s drop rate and second-ranked Brissett’s drop rate. The 3.1% difference between Wilson (12.7%) and Brissett (9.6%) is equal to the difference between Brissett and 22nd-ranked Josh Allen (6.5%) out of 35 qualifiers.

    That is completely absurd. While a quarterback has some control over his drop rate, an astronomically high number like Wilson’s can only occur as a result of terrible play from the pass-catchers.

    There are some areas in which the Jets did a decent job of supporting Wilson. Their pass protection and run game became respectable later in the year when the offensive line was healthy, and offensive coordinator Mike LaFleur did a nice job of manufacturing offense.

    Securing easy catches was not one of those areas. New York’s pass-catchers botched way too many good throws from Wilson.

    Not only did Wilson have to fight through a frequency of drops that no other quarterback came close to, but a lot of his drops came on fantastic throws that should have yielded big-time yardage and momentum.

    Corey Davis had a rough season in this department, dropping six passes. His 15.0% drop rate ranked fourth-worst out of 117 qualified wide receivers. That is a major outlier for Davis. Over his four seasons, Davis never had a drop rate higher than 5.8% or a drop total higher than four. The Jets need him to get back to that level.

    Top weapons Elijah Moore (2 drops, 4.4% rate) and Braxton Berrios (1 drop, 2.1% rate) secured the ball effectively, but the wideouts at the very bottom of New York’s depth chart struggled mightily. Denzel Mims (2 drops), Jeff Smith (2), and Tarik Black (1) combined for five drops against only 17 receptions (22.7% rate).

    The Jets need their running backs to display much softer hands, too. Ty Johnson led all running backs with nine drops and a 20.9% drop rate. Michael Carter tied for sixth in drops with five while his 12.2% drop rate ranked seventh-worst out of 49 qualified running backs.

    The same goes for the tight end position. Tyler Kroft and Ryan Griffin caught very few passes, yet Kroft tied for eighth among tight ends with four drops and Griffin tied for 16th with three. Kroft’s 20.0% drop rate was the worst among 52 qualified tight ends while Griffin’s 10.0% rate was seventh-worst.

    All of this makes one thing clear: when evaluating potential additions to improve the offensive skill positions this offseason, Joe Douglas and the Jets need to have “strong hands” as the No. 1 must-have skill on their checklist.
     
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  2. 50ShadesOfGreen

    50ShadesOfGreen Well-Known Member

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  3. MaximusD163

    MaximusD163 Well-Known Member

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    I’ve been saying that all season… with less research lol
     
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  4. NYJ1970

    NYJ1970 Well-Known Member

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    The drops that this team was beyond ridiculous. It really is terrible to subject your rookie QB to such ridiculous play. I agree 100% with this article. JD must get guys that can catch the fucking ball......
     
  5. NYJ1970

    NYJ1970 Well-Known Member

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    Can somebody tell me how the fuck did Tariq Black end up on this list??? Lol
     
  6. NCJetsfan

    NCJetsfan Well-Known Member

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    I think Mims had more than 2 drops. He dropped 2 TDs that I know of, and I think I remember reading that he had dropped another pass or two.
     
  7. NCJetsfan

    NCJetsfan Well-Known Member

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  8. HomeoftheJets

    HomeoftheJets Well-Known Member

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    It's true that Zach's numbers would be better if he had better receivers. It's also true that Zach's overall PFF grade, which takes drops and the quality of one's teammates into account, is 59.3, which is one of the worst in the league. So while Zach's numbers would be better if he had better receivers, they would still be bad.
     
  9. K'OB

    K'OB 2021 TGG Fantasy Football Champ

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    Anybody with eyes could see we had a case of stone hands but it will be interesting to see what the metric for a catchable ball was?
     
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  10. K'OB

    K'OB 2021 TGG Fantasy Football Champ

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    Some bad drops on there tbf
     
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  11. Br4d

    Br4d 2018 Weeb Ewbank Award

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    The metric for a catchable ball should be in the right part of the catch box with appropriate velocity with a defender not draped on the receiver or coming at them from a directly opposed angle.

    Balls are caught that are not in the right part of the catch box and with defenders in advantageous positions, however those are great catches not the expected result.

    If you throw a ball that is 50/50 for the receiver to actually catch the odds are pretty good you're going to have a fair number of throws where the receiver gets their hands on the ball but cannot make the catch. That happened to Zach a fair amount last season.
     
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  12. ColoradoContrails

    ColoradoContrails Well-Known Member

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    As the article said, drops aren't all on the receiver, the QB has to own some blame. That said, good receivers make their QBs look good - that's why good receivers get paid a lot. The Jets simply don't have enough good receiver. Look at Josh Allen - a lot has been said about how he improved his accuracy, which he did, but it's not like he became great, he got better receivers and better OL play. When your QB is under siege they can't take the time to wait for perfect separation, or to put touch on the ball. Good receivers can handle less accurate throws that come at them hotter.

    Bottom line: Yes, Zach needs to improve - and I believe he will continue as he's shown - but the Jets need to improve the receiving corps and the OL.
     
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  13. PabloJa

    PabloJa Well-Known Member

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    PFF’s grades suck ass, simple as that.
     
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  14. Jets69

    Jets69 Well-Known Member

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    Jesus the apologists on this board!! That a bag of shit resembles a sack of gold, I hope he can due a 180 next season but its highly unlikely, one thing the Jets can't due is draft a QB
    3 guys on the history of the origination have panned out
    Joe namath
    Ken o'brien
    Chad Pennington
    That says it all
     
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  15. ouchy

    ouchy Well-Known Member

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    This is a sort of obscure stat. Where talking about percentage of passes drops vs total drops. A quick check shows the Jets were 5th in drops, tied with the Jags and Radiers. TL had more drops than Zach, but he also threw a lot more passes. Same with Stafford, Carr, Big Ben, and Herbert, who led the league with 33 drops.

    Here is the alarming part. It seems almost all of the drops the Jets had where when Zach was playing. If the drop totals listed above are correct (FYI - NBC sports has different numbers) than White, Johnson, and Flacco had a total of one drop each over nearly 5 combined games. This indicates WRs are struggling to catch Zach throws at a much higher rate than our other QBs.

    NBC Sports drop total:
    https://scores.nbcsports.com/fb/tmleaders.asp?type=Receiving&range=NFL&rank=232

    But like I said, we have differing stat number on drops by website.
     
  16. Acad23

    Acad23 Well-Known Member

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    You left Sanchez off the list.

    Shame on you.
     
  17. REVISion

    REVISion Well-Known Member

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    Two parties share the blame here.

    Zach didn't throw catchable balls often enough and his receivers dropped a ton of gimmies.
     
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  18. bicketybam

    bicketybam Well-Known Member

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    I could have predicted the responses from both sides here. It's going to be a long off-season.
     
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  19. Acad23

    Acad23 Well-Known Member

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    C'mon bickety...that's what makes this place boogie.
     
  20. bicketybam

    bicketybam Well-Known Member

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    I guess. I'm sure it also makes a lot of lurkers remain lurkers or just flat out leave.

    We are at the point where only one take is acceptable and that's "Zach sucks." Any sort of positive post about Wilson gets shot down instantly by your usual suspects. I could see why someone new wouldn't want any any part of this forum.

    As an outsider I really don't give a shit one way or the other. But if I ran this site I would be a little bit concerned.
     
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