Good point. Douglas may have thought there was enough around Zach to support him... although I don't know why. I can't think of any quarterbacks that could carry this team, as it's currently built, to the playoffs. Seems that there was a whole lot of wishful thinking in the front office...
Pragmatism and fanaticism are always at odds with each other. We don't get to pick the players or shape the team. We're left to enjoy or critique what's on the field. Such is life...
In the absence of lollipops, unicorns and rainbows, I suppose everything is caustic negativity to you. I see it as respecting reality and I've been trained in it for sixty years. I'd also point out that I never demanded anyone adopt my viewpoint as I had done to me; I respected theirs, as lame is they may have been.
This is a misunderstanding. Yes, you do usually need to draft a QB, but no they do not need to come right up at the top of the draft and throwing darts at the top of the draft is like spitting into the wind. In most seasons the best QB drafted is not the first QB drafted. This is a stacked comparison, because there is only one first QB chosen whereas there may be 7 or 8 guys picked after him, however it illustrates exactly how foolish it is to set your sights on one QB and take them up high. If the NFL collectively believes the guy is the best QB and worth the pick then you probably have to take him if you need a QB but in other situations you are just setting yourself up to fail at the most important position in the game. Something the Jets have done repeatedly over the last couple of decades.
Any QB taken up top fits the bill, since generally they are not the consensus best and they always represent a huge investment in draft value. Most QB's should sit for awhile and watch the NFL game up close before they are exposed to it. Most QB's do not have an ideal talent set around them. Given those realities spending top 5 value to acquire the guy is just setting yourself up to fail. Trading up to do it is sheer lunacy and in most cases any benefits obtained will accrue to your successor because you are getting fired soon.
It's close, actually. Regardless, if you're determined to get the best QB in the draft, your best shot is DEFINITELY to get the first one. From 2001 to 2020, half the QB's picked first are at least in the conversation for best in their class. No other draft slot is even close. Joe Burrow (Herbert) Kyler Murray Andrew Luck (R. Wilson) Cam Newton (Dalton) Sam Bradford (yep) Matt Stafford Matt Ryan (Flacco) Eli Manning (Rivers, Big Ben) Carson Palmer David Carr (Garrard, McCown?) http://www.drafthistory.com/index.php/positions/qb Unsurprisingly, your next best shot at the best QB is to pick the second QB. Mahomes Mariota Geno Smith (Glennon?) Flacco (Ryan) Rodgers Rivers (Eli, Big Ben) Brees In only five years of the past 20 was the best QB clearly not one of the first two QB's picked. 2018 Josh Allen (Lamar Jackson) 2016 Prescott 2014 Derek Carr 2007 Trent Edwards (Kolb, Stanton?) 2006 Cutler (Yes, Brady was 2000, but I'm not cherry-picking. Keep going through the 90's and the trend continues.)
Top 5? 2001 - No (Brees #32) 2002 - No (Garrard #108) 2003 - Yes (Palmer #1) 2004 - No (Roethlisberger #11) 2005 - No (Rodgers #24) 2006 - No (Cutler #11) 2007 - No (No QB's worth taking in the draft) 2008 - No (Ryan/Flacco basically a tossup) 2009 - Yes (Matthew Stafford #1) 2010 - No (No QB's worth taking in the draft) 2011 - Yes (Cam Newton #1) 2012 - Yes (Andrew Luck #1 but Russell Wilson worth more at #75) 2013 - No (No QB's in the draft worth taking) 2014 - No (Carr #36) 2015 - No (No QB's worth taking in the draft) 2016 - Yes (Goff and Wentz but neither worth a huge trade up and both traded up for in a huge trade up) 2017 - No (Mahomes #10) 2018 - No (Open between Allen and Jackson, neither in top 5) 2019 - Yes (Murray #1) 2020 - Too early 2021 - Too early
Even then 13 out of 21 years the best QB was not the first QB taken and two of the years are too early to call. 2003 and 2012 there was no question the best player in the draft was a QB and the NFL had a consensus on that. Almost every other year there has been significantly more value available at the top of the draft than the QB's represented. That's how bad teams stay bad - falling for that crap over and over again.
Anytime you take 1 or 2 guys and put them up against "the field" like this the field often wins. Not exactly groundbreaking discovery here on where QBs are drafted. I imagine if you did the same thing for tight ends or guards or safeties it would be the same thing The issue is always which QB you take, rather than where. I wish there was an easy playbook for this, the Jets might not be so terrible if there was
This is mostly true, however when you take a QB up high in the draft you are betting that he will succeed and you are risking a long dry spell if he does not. If you are already in a dry spell when you take him, well you risk that becoming a major drought, one like the one the Jets are in now and will likely continue to face. To make it even more complicated you generally are settling for less than the appropriate value on the pick you take the QB on if you are picking up high. This also removes another quality prospect from the team, one more likely to succeed, particularly on a bad team.
It doesn't have to be that way. With the rookie cap, drafting someone high does not mean he's a significant addition to your expenditures. You have the flexibility to play him, bench him, or sit him until he's ready. Unfortunately it doesnt play out that way though, I'll agree
So if you need a QB you want to pick for the first or second one off the board but not necessarily Top 5? If you can't get the first or second QB drafted without going top 5 then your chances drop significantly? The obvious answer is you draft the QB you like especially if you have a chance in drafting the first or second QB. Good job JD, we significantly improved our chances by getting the second guy that he will be successful. The problem is Sanchez and Darnold were also the second Qbs off the board and we all know how that turned out. My take if you like the QB you take him. You can't win in this league with good QB play. The Jets have tried it both ways with mixed success to say the SOJ is misleading at best. lets take a look after Kenny O Since 1993 Boomer E- Did not work out Frank Reich- Sucked Neil O'Donnell- Sucked Vinny T- Success(AFCC) Chad P- Some Success(Couple of Playoff Wins) Brett Favre- One and Done (Missed Playoffs) Mark Sanchez-Some success (Two AFCC) Geno Smith - Bust Fitz- One good season missed playoffs Josh McCown- Sucked Sam D- Bust Zach - TBD The Jets have drafted four QBs in the first round since 1993 two of those QBs took us to the playoffs one was an outright bust and the Fourth the Jury is still out. Chad, Mark, Sam, Zach. We have started 7 Veterans with only 2 of them leading us to the playoffs. We have also drafted Qbs in the later rounds Geno- Bust, Bryce Petty- Bust, Hackenburg- Bust If you look at the data the best chance for the Jets to make the playoffs is drafting a QB in round 1 . Which they did. The SOJ would be bringing in Jags, The only time the Jets have made the playoff since 1993 was with a QB drafted in the first round and was either the first or second QB selected in their draft class.
Opportunity is one of the biggest drivers in success, after talent and availability. Using a 1st round pick on somebody not really ready to play is tough. Playing that guy even though they are not ready to play? It's just enervating for the whole team. There probably is no right solution but when you consistently pick wrong you are just blowing your foot off with a shotgun and no amount of staying the course makes it better. You are just reloading the shotgun and aiming at your other foot in that case. When both are gone, well the only thing left to do is stick the gun in your mouth and fire the GM and HC again. Right now I think 90% of the chance for Douglas and Saleh to save their jobs goes through the path of finding another QB to ride to some success next year. 10% of it rests on Zach Wilson improbably turning out to be a good QB. The Jets gave Zach Wilson a lot of unearned opportunities in 2021. If he gets those opportunities next year he'd better earn them.
This is what I hold out hope on: At some point Joe Douglas needs to actually win! I don't think he's the type of guy that is content cashing in and isn't worried about losing his job. I think he wants to succeed and stay as a GM. If you are in his seat you would have to know that you simply can't go 4-13 (or less) again next season. If you look at Zach Wilson QBing, that's probably where things are headed. Even if the staff wants to keep Wilson as the starter and develop, Douglas has got to realize that path means he loses his job so he's gotta go out and get a veteran that will win more games. It is desperation at this point
In closing, we must always look to get 6th round quarterbacks from now. It worked out once, why can’t it work out again?
Why is it improbable for Zach to be a good QB? The wrong thing to do was to start Zach with a playoff-ready. (That is what kills motivation) . This team was all about growth for the rookies on offense and the rookies on defense to the offensive coordinator. What you do not want is to have Zach go through that learning curve year 2. As I have shown above riding with a Jag Qb is the same old Jets and has literally not worked since Vinny T and this team is not as near talented as those teams.
One way for Douglas and Saleh to look at it is that having a veteran QB beat out Zach Wilson for the job next year does not mean Zach is gone for good. There's always 2023 and yet another QB competition after that. If they're afraid Zach will lose to a decent #2, like Nick Foles or Andy Dalton, then what does that say about the Jets managing to be more than total crap with Zach playing QB next year?
