I don’t think you can really draft position hedging on who you think you can get in round two. Jermaine Johnson is a nice productive player. Does he make it that far? He’s supposed to test off the charts at the combine. Same thing with Drake London. If he didn’t break his ankle, I don’t see how he doesn’t win the Biletnikoff award. In 5/8 games he had 10+ catches and then the team fell apart when he got hurt. I don’t think he gets out of round 1. You’re could be looking in the Dotson (who I like) to Metchie and below range if you’re trying to hedge like that. I’m not against the way you framed your draft though I’m pretty much dead set on getting a receiver early this year and hoping for a trade down to do so.
The two players I mentioned may go 1st round, and I didn’t mean it had to be those 2 in general. But there are only 32 1st round picks, some players will fall at Edge and WR. Hamilton Thibodeaux Hutchinson Karlaftis Walker Burks Wilson Olave Cross Ekwonu Neal Linderbaum Stingley Gardner Booth Leal Lloyd Plus a few QB’s… that’s 20 1st round “locks” so there aren’t so many spots left for multiple edge, WR, and CB’s to slide in.
What I’m saying though is that operating with the notion of who you take in round 1 based on who you think will be available 32 picks later is flawed. I also think it’s easier to fix safety in free agency than it is to fix edge. And I would in way shape or form be upset with a TL/Hamilton first round.
Its not really who you think will be available as much as it’s a numbers game though, but regardless, for me it’s primarily about maximizing the number of true Blue Chip prospects. Ideologically I just find it hard to justify a 1st round WR unless they have 4.2 game speed, because year after year there are 2nd round WR’s who have 1-3 very high level skills. Who can develop into starters. I’d rather have 4 legit WR’s than 1 Super Star WR.
And year after year we end up with Devin Smith and Denzel Mims… I’m using hindsight here, but is it possible that this was the same thought process that netted us Becton over CeeDee Lamb? Even if Becton becomes a good player, he’s nowhere near what Lamb is right now. 2020 was a deep receiver class too and billed as the best since 2014.
Would you have preferred Kevin White over Devin Smith in 2015? Or Kendall Wright over Stephen Hill in 2012? Do you think the Eagles are glad they took Jalen Raegor over Van Jefferson? There are busts in every round, it’s easy to point to failed 2nd round picks. You have to trust you staff and your evaluation process, and the strategy is ultimately just different when you have so many high picks. Could all be pointless speculation… there is a theoretical possibility that the Jets end up with something insane like 1st and 6th overall anyway.
Shaq Lawson will be cut for sure. We need to resign Kyle Phillips. He's a good player, been hurt but he's back and he's good at setting the edge. A year in camp healthy, he's a fine player at bargain price.
If you trust your evaluation then you take the best football player at a position of need and don’t try to get cute in thinking about who you’ll get in round 2. As I said though. I love Hamilton and wouldn’t be upset with taking him. I just believe that with the quality progression of the corners this year, you can plug those safety holes with good quality free agents. Even if you don’t go as extravagant as I did with Harrison and Williams, there are a ton of solid players out there.
