Something I’ve made the mistake of in the past is ignoring situational circumstances when looking at the analytics of the cap and draft. Positional value generally exists, yes. Maximizing picks over individual prospects is usually the way to look at the draft process, yes. Sometimes, however, you must take into account make-or-break situations and prioritize. Should the Green Bay Packers trade a 3rd to move up for a guard? No. Should the Seattle Seahawks? No. These teams have established franchise QB’s in place. The protection and development of a QB investment has to be prioritized. The Jets, Jaguars, and Bears all needed to make major investments on the offensive line, and is if you think about it this way: Jets: Trade up for elite prospect Alijah Vera-Tucker… Jaguars: Took a running back and waited until 2nd to take Walker Little… Bears: Moved up in the 2nd for Teven Jenkins… One of these teams has a manageable OL right now. Two do not. The rookie QB’s well being is not something you want to mess around with. Yes the Jets are bad, but the Jets are getting smashed on defense. They’ve had 5 consecutive solid offensive performances. The Jaguars and Bears both have piss poor offenses and their QB’s both are dealing with it. In 3 years, if Wilson is looking great and has mastered the offense. That’s when you say “hell no I’m not trading up for a guard, I can bank on a 2022 4th round pick developing into a starter because my QB is the real deal.”
The problem with trading up is what if AVT wasn't actually going to be a good NFL player? In hindsight, he has been, but given how many bad players JD has drafted, there's no way you can say JD knew ahead of time AVT was going to be good. (Maybe he thought he knew, but if so that's just overconfidence in his ability to evaluate talent.)
AVT looks like he will be an elite player, Jets need elite players. 2021 draft is looking like it could be a great draft. Follow up with another great one in 2022 and the Jets will be on there way to some success. How much success likely depends on the most important draft pick which is obviously Zach Wilson.
I think it was a good risk. So far, the trade is yielding results. Suppose he gets a career ending injury in the next game? Would we then call it a bad trade? No, b/c you could still call it a good risk.
Well considering I don’t think Douglas has drafted that many bad players… I would say he was widely considered a high probability prospect throughout the draft evaluator community. He was a top 5 prospect among all players, and only fell to 14 because he is a guard and because 4 QB’s were taken.
Jets fans may not realize this but Joe Douglas ran point on the Eagles drafts from 2017-2019. -Derek Barnett -Dallas Goedert -Avonte Maddox -Josh Sweat -Jordan Mailata -Miles Sanders All of these players were drafted in that time.
It was absolutely a good move. Regardless of whether he's fully succeeded so far, Douglas understands, and is committed to, building this team from the lines out. It's slower and not as flashy as going after the more glamorous players, but without very good OL and DL, you can't win consistently, and you can't win a SB, which is the target he's aiming at. He is making progress. AVT was another stepping stone. If Becton returns to form, the Jets have the left side of the OL set for a long time. If Becton doesn't return 100%, or continues to get hurt, then JD is going to have to find someone else - that's how building a team works: not every player you get will succeed, but over time, if you're a good GM the good players accumulate. Keep in mind JD has only been on the job for 3 years and two drafts. What he's done so far is damn good. And he's shown improvement from his first draft to his second, so I think we can expect to see a good draft again this year.
I was firmly against it at the time but in retrospect he looks like he’s going to be a stud so it seems like it’ll work out. The Jags decision to take Etienne (overrated anyways) with that first round pick while they have a guy on a UDFA contract that just rushed for a thousand yards was the single worst move in this years draft. Injured or not it made zero sense.
Conventional wisdom says guards can be acquired in the middle rounds. But, considering our OL situation, an immediate contributor was needed. He was considered to be one of the most polished OL prospects. And while three picks were used to move up, it was a net loss of two picks. If this is a one year thing, it's not a bad thing at all. If Douglas decides to become Tanny 2.0 and give up picks every year, it will become a problem. And we should feel great if his play warrants a second contract. So, my verdict is this was a good move.
I didn't like the Revis trade up at the time either, but it was worth it. Just not the contract that followed. If AVT ends up being a Jet guard for 10-12 years, continues to improve and gets a few earned all-pro nods, and can stay relatively healthy for that span, that trade up will be worth it.
The 2020 class has been a disaster, and while most of the 2021 picks look better, the class will only be a success if Wilson is the answer. Regarding Philly's drafts, there's no way for us to know how much influence he had.
We gave up two picks for AVT. But it appears without the trade we would have used pick 23 on Moore and pick 66 on Carter. So in reality we only gave up pick 34 and 86 for AVT a player that many people already think is playing at a pro bowl level. We got a steal in what we gave up for AVT plus we still got the other 2 players the FO coveted in Moore and Carter.
Everyone seems to forget that the Jets didn’t spend 3 picks on AVT. There is a huge difference in giving up two 3rds, and giving up one 3rd and trading down 1 round with another. Jets Gave: -1st -3rd -3rd Vikings Gave: -1st -4th
Given the whole distribution of outcomes you have to say it's a good outcome thus far. But a lot of guys liked Creed Humphrey who we could have got sitting on the late 1st round pick and kept the 2 thirds. Would that have been much better--who knows?
