2021 Top 12 Draft Gambles 6 game update

This is an update for my 12 most costly draft prospects after the first 3rd of the season. I figure to do one after 12 games and at the end of the season to track their progress. Look for the "SIX GAME UPATE" for the new information. (As you know, due to the bye week some teams only played 5 games and are not technically at the 1/3 point in their season yet).

1. Trevor Lawrence - Jacksonville
Investment: Pick 1
The top pick in the draft was worth so much this season it impossible not to list Lawrence as the biggest investment. What they could have gotten in return for trading down, even multiple times, is astounding. They could have traded twice and still been in the top 12 getting a blue chip.
Preseason - Lawrence had a decent preseason on a rudderless team. He looks like a pro, but he looks like a pro who is going to get creamed a lot. I'd worry he lasts the season. He has stayed healthy so far.

SIX GAME UPDATE

Record: 1-5
129 / 216 for 1465 yards
59.7 completion percent
7 TD
8 INT
2 Rushing TDs
Rushing Yards - 121
Sacks - 10

TL looks as advertised before the draft. He is a solid QB who can make a lot of throws and move the chains. But he's in a bad situation with a very weak supporting cast and suspect coaching. I get the impression if TL went to a good team he'd be a budding star. So far he seems worth his draft investment, except the Jags weren't ready for a QB. There is a danger of injury or even regression in this system. But if he can survive this season and get help he could become a top QB.

Investment Grade so far: B

2. Trey Lance - San Francisco
Investment: Pick 3, (1) (1) (3)
Amazingly, SF was able to make the third pick more expensive than the 2nd pick by adding two future firsts and a third. Perhaps the second pick could have fetched more but SF actually made the investment so I have to consider it a bigger investment. Considering they are in a win now position they were in a position to gamble more to get over the hump. But still, three firsts and a third for a one year starter? This pick makes me feel better about gambling on Zach.
Preseason -Lance flashed but also looked raw on a talented roster. IMO he isn't ready to start, which makes the investment in him even more risky. Stayed healthy so far.

SIX GAME UPDATE

Record: 0-1
25 / 48 for 354 yards
52.1 completion percent
3 TD
1 INT
1 Rushing TD
133 Rushing yards
Sacks - 3

Though Lance's stats might look decent for a one game starter, they are a little deceiving. He got half of his stats coming off the bench in situational play. His one start was much to run heavy and he frequently looked lost in the passing game. He is very raw looking and probably not ready to be starting. Still a small sample size. This is a trial by fire, but at least he is in a talented offense.

Investment Grade so far: D+

3. Zach Wilson - New York Jets
Investment: Pick 2
Our pick was very valuable and instead of swapping for more rebuild capital we went all in on a QB. We'd certainly have a better roster now (minus QB) and more capital in the future. It is a large risk for a rebuilding team.
Preseason -Wilson had a tremendous preseason. He looks ready to start on opening day. The only knock was he hasn't faced the first string yet. Obviously we will be tracking him to closest of all of them. I cant stress enough how much we need this investment to pay off. Stayed healthy so far.

FIVE GAME UPDATE

Record: 1-4
98 / 171 for 1117 yards
57.3 completion percent
4 TD
9 INT
0 Rushing TDs
22 Rushing yards
Sacks - 18

If you want the story of Zach just look at the Jets forum. One thing that sticks out is he has been sacked more than any other rookie QB along with Fields. Like TL he has is in a position that increases his chances of injury and regression with the lack of support up front. The Atlanta game did have a feel that he regressed and it could be argued we weren't ready for a top 3 QB. But there is potential lurking in there somewhere, if we can find a way to exploit it.

Investment Grade so far: C

4. Kyle Pitts - Atlanta
Investment: Pick 4
While there were a lot of expensive trades this draft I gotta keep Pitts at #4 solely on the fact that he is now the highest drafted TE in history. I know he was highly rated coming out but pick 4 on a TE is a huge gamble. This is a hybrid TE that may end up being more of a WR than TE. I'm very interested to see how this plays out over the year.
Preseason - Pitts only played one game and had one catch for 27 yards. But during that catch he showed some of his YAC ability. Stayed healthy so far.

5 GAME UPDATE

Targets - 36
Receptions - 24
Yards - 308
Average - 12.8
TDs - 1

Pitts was having a very average season until he played us and broke out for 119 yards and his only TD. If he continues trending that direction his grade can only go up. He has shown great potential to be an impact player. But he has to do it against more than just us.

Investment Grade so far: C-

5. Jaylen Waddle - Miami
Investment: Pick 6 (1)
Miami used pick 6 and a future first to take a WR. This offseason they have really tried to add playmakers to their offense and Waddle is an expensive investment. Waddle does have the best acceleration you will ever see in a player.
Preseason -He had a strong preseason if not stellar. Made several catches to keep the chains moving. But nothing breakout. He has stayed healthy.

6 GAME UPDATE

Targets - 49
Receptions - 37
Yards - 301
Average - 8.1
TDs - 3

So far Waddle hasn't been the electric playmaker the phins were hoping for. Part of this is poor QB play between both Tua and Brissett, and part is the system he is in. But I think they still expected more at this point, especially with Fuller out. Waddle is the second leading receiver on the phins behind their TE. Has the most catches of any rookie WR. He is dangerous in the red zone and shows potential to break out at some point.

Investment Grade so far: C

6. Ja'Marr Chase - Cincinnati
Investment: Pick 5
This pick had a lot of value and Cinn stuck with Chase. This makes sense because both Burrow and Chase had their best college season together.
Preseason -Chase seriously underwhelmed in preseason. In two games he was targeted 5 times, with 4 drops. The one catch he made was a screen pass. This could be a reflection of rust from opting out. The Bengals are looking for Chase to step up once the regular season starts.

SIX GAME UPDATE

Targets - 41
Receptions - 27
Yards - 553
Average - 20.5
TDs - 5

Chase has been sensational and is the early OROY candidate. He is helped by the system and QB, but he is delivering the goods when needed. Nearly all of his catches have been downfield and he still continues to get open. So far he is a legit weapon and is the Bengals leading receiver.

Investment Grade so far: A+

 

7. Penei Sewell - Detroit
Investment: Pick 7
Pick 7 still had a lot of value and Detroit invested it in Sewell. He went lower than some expected so the gamble side of this is not so large.
Preseason -Sewell has struggled so far, allowing multiple sacks and pressures against the Bills. Another opt out player struggling in preseason. PFF rated his preseason performance as Detroit's 3rd worst linemen, ahead off two guys that got cut. He be lining up across from Nick Bosa on Sunday so clearly he is going to need to improve fast.

6 GAME UPDATE

Starts - 6
Penalties - 5
Sacks -
QB hits -

I cant load my stats page for OL so I don't have advanced stats. Sewell has played every snap so far at LT and done a decent job for the 7th pick.

Investment Grade so far: B-

8. Justin Fields - Chicago
Investment: Pick 11 and 164 (1) (5)
Fields ends up costing Chicago two firsts and two lower round picks. Went lower than expected and not in the top 10, but still a large investment at 2 firsts a fourth and a fifth.
Preseason -Fields looked raw but confident. Both his strength of mobility and weakness in reads were on display. Needs development and probably shouldn't be starting next Sunday. Stayed healthy.

SIX GAME UPDATE

Record: 2-2
53 / 99 for 632 yards
53.5 completion percent
2 TD
3 INT
1 Rushing TD
102 Rushing yards
Sacks - 18

In fewer starts Fields has been sacked as many times as Wilson. Still looks raw but not as lost as Trey Lance. There are signs of potential and its still a question of whether he can put it all together and break out.

Investment grade so far: C

9. Jaycee Horn - Carolina
Investment: Pick 8
The top 12 picks were so valuable in the last draft and the Panthers stuck with Horn. Perhaps the biggest gamble was taking him ahead of Patrick Surtain. Will that turn out to be the right move? Also, the Panthers did not use this pick to upgrade an already shaky o-line.
Preseason -Horn was stellar this preseason being targeted 5 times with 5 PDs. He has the early look of being a future lockdown corner. Stayed healthy.

SIX GAME UPDATE

Targets - 7
Completions Allowed - 2
Passes Defended - 1
INTs - 1
TDs allowed - 1
Tackles - 5

Horn has missed 3 games due to injury but has played solid during his starts. Its a small data set to judge and his lack of playtime hurts his grade. He is the only player in the top 12 to miss time due to injury.

Investment Grade so far: C

10. Devonta Smith - Philadelphia
Investment: Pick 10 & 84
The Heisman winner cost the Eagles pick 10 and their third. The gamble with Smith was never about talent and always about his size. We'll see if how it plays out.
Preseason -Not a great preseason. Sprained knee forced him to see limited action in camp. Two catches on 4 targets in his lone game, with two drops. The upside was he got off the line clean and beat the coverage every target. Can he be covered one on one and stay healthy? Expected to start as the #1 opening day.

SIX GAME UPDATE

Targets - 44
Receptions - 27
Yards - 345
Average - 12.8
TDs - 1

Smith has been a solid player so far. Like Waddle he is hampered by poor QBing and a puzzling offensive scheme. Has had 3 TDs called back for penalties but is the Eagles leading receiver. There has been some adjustments required for his size and he has gotten pushed around more than most. He is clearly growing and is poised to break out at some point.

Investment Grade so far: B-

11. Alijah Vera-Tucker - New York Jets
Investment: Pick 14, 66, & 86
Jets were thin at guard and spent three picks to land a top prospect. Tucker was viewed as the best guard in a lean guard draft. Quite a lot of capital spent on a non blue chip prospect. We are gambling Tucker becomes a solid starter at RG for many years to come.
Preseason -Did not play any preseason snaps due to injured pectoral muscle. Showed some talent in limited camp work. Concern with another opt out player who has now missed most of camp will be starting opening day. Will he have rust? He is a player to watch week 1.

FIVE GAME UPDATE

Starts - 5
Penalties - 2
Sacks -
QB hits -

Like Sewell I don't have access to the advanced stats, but we all know the story. Has started all 5 games and played every snap. Showing improvement the last two games.

Investment Grade so far: B-

12. Patrick Surtain II - Denver
Investment: Pick 9
Surtain went top 10 and IMO is the least risky pick on this list. He was rated highly and was the seemingly best CB pick available.
Preseason -Stellar. Gave up 1 catch in 6 targets and had a pick 6. Like Horn, he looks to be a potential lockdown corner and potential DROY.

SIX GAME UPDATE

Targets - 36
Completions allowed - 21
Passes Defended - 4
INTs - 1
TDs allowed - 1
TDs scored - 1
Tackles - 22

Surtain has been challenged a lot so far and has mostly performed as a high level. He is also averaging nearly 4 tackles a game which is among the league leaders for CBs. Has a pick six and would be a strong candidate for DROY if not for Diggs down on Dallas.

Investment Grade so far: B+
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Well that's how I see it anyway. I'm sure some of you will see it a little different. We'll revisit it again after week 13.