Well, at the time there was nothing to talk about, so I created a thread to show where the biggest investments in the last draft were, factoring in where trades made a player more expensive than their draft position, and the potential trade value of each pick.
I think this is a good discussion/thing to think about thread. I feel like from a "gamble" standpoint the 49'ers are #1 by orders of magnitude. Followed probably by the Jets and the Bengals. The 49ers traded a ton for Trey Lance, took him over Fields, and who knows.... that one may just flat out not work out. I wouldn't put the Jags in the gamble category too deeply as they took pretty much the 100% consensus #1 guy available. If anything their 2nd pick was the risky move which already isn't going well.
Yeah, Lance was a way bigger gamble than Wilson. The 49ers traded up for him while already having a QB on the roster who they went to a Super Bowl with. On top of that, Lance had the most question marks of any of the top QB prospects. There was a long time before the draft where Lance was only being considered as a guy to take a flyer on later in the first few rounds. I never really understood the Lance hype to be honest. I think it mainly stemmed from Josh Allen's recent success last season and teams wanting to recreate that by drafting an athletic guy with a big arm. I recall a quote from a GM that said a lot of GM's are going to get fired trying to mimic what the Bills did with Allen. Allen was an anomaly, guys that inaccurate almost never improve their accuracy as much as Allen has. Lance isn't even that spectacular an athlete either. He has ideal height/weight but he's really not that fast. He's no Fields on the athleticism front, and Fields had less question marks about his ability to actually be an effective passer. Really questionable move by the 49ers.
I feel sorry for those people that drafted him in fantasy without realising that he can't catch an NFL ball. I am looking inwards at this point in time
Lance is really fast for a quarterback reportedly being in the 4.5 range. Plus he's a big dude. The rest I agree with, other than any defense of Jimmy Garroppolo. He blows. Any of the other four quarterbacks seem like they were the low-hanging fruit for a potential quick return to the SB. Lance is very boom or bust in that regard.
So? He was projected as one of the best linemen and by far the best guard in the draft. He surely may not be Nelson but hell he turns out good, the investment was well worth it, you have a building block on the offensive line.
The Colts and Cowboys are not taking that package of picks for Nelson or Martin. They would've been dealt by now if they were.
Calculating quantitative draft value seems to draw the ire or disinterest of the masses. Its an underappreciated topic IMO.
