Top 12 biggest draft gambles of 2021

Discussion in 'New York Jets' started by ouchy, Sep 6, 2021.

  1. ouchy

    ouchy Well-Known Member

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    Now that its officially week 1 I'd thought I'd make a thread to rank the biggest draft investments, and gambles, from the 2021 NFL draft. Mostly because this was a very interesting draft with a lot of surprises and risky big investments.

    These are the guys that teams gambled the most on and invested the most capital in. It will be interesting to see which players live up to their investments. The ranking is my own, not using any system of draft points, and I created this in the Jets forum because we got 2 of the top 12, the most of any team. Bracketed numbers mean future picks given up for the player. Example: (2) means future second round pick.

    Here are the top 12 biggest gambles from the 2021 draft:

    1. Trevor Lawrence - Jacksonville
    Investment: Pick 1

    The top pick in the draft was worth so much this season it impossible not to list Lawrence as the biggest investment. What they could have gotten in return for trading down, even multiple times, is astounding. They could have traded twice and still been in the top 12 getting a blue chip.
    Preseason - Lawrence had a decent preseason on a rudderless team. He looks like a pro, but he looks like a pro who is going to get creamed a lot. I'd worry he lasts the season. He has stayed healthy so far.

    2. Trey Lance - San Francisco
    Investment: Pick 3, (1) (1) (3)

    Amazingly, SF was able to make the third pick more expensive than the 2nd pick by adding two future firsts and a third. Perhaps the second pick could have fetched more but SF actually made the investment so I have to consider it a bigger investment. Considering they are in a win now position they were in a position to gamble more to get over the hump. But still, three firsts and a third for a one year starter? This pick makes me feel better about gambling on Zach.
    Preseason -Lance flashed but also looked raw on a talented roster. IMO he isn't ready to start, which makes the investment in him even more risky. Stayed healthy so far.

    3. Zach Wilson - New York Jets
    Investment
    : Pick 2
    Our pick was very valuable and instead of swapping for more rebuild capital we went all in on a QB. We'd certainly have a better roster now (minus QB) and more capital in the future. It is a large risk for a rebuilding team.
    Preseason -Wilson had a tremendous preseason. He looks ready to start on opening day. The only knock was he hasn't faced the first string yet. Obviously we will be tracking him to closest of all of them. I cant stress enough how much we need this investment to pay off. Stayed healthy so far.

    4. Kyle Pitts - Atlanta
    Investment
    : Pick 4
    While there were a lot of expensive trades this draft I gotta keep Pitts at #4 solely on the fact that he is now the highest drafted TE in history. I know he was highly rated coming out but pick 4 on a TE is a huge gamble. This is a hybrid TE that may end up being more of a WR than TE. I'm very interested to see how this plays out over the year.
    Preseason - Pitts only played one game and had one catch for 27 yards. But during that catch he showed some of his YAC ability. Stayed healthy so far.

    5. Jaylen Waddle - Miami
    Investment
    : Pick 6 (1)
    Miami used pick 6 and a future first to take a WR. This offseason they have really tried to add playmakers to their offense and Waddle is an expensive investment. Waddle does have the best acceleration you will ever see in a player.
    Preseason -He had a strong preseason if not stellar. Made several catches to keep the chains moving. But nothing breakout. He has stayed healthy.

    6. Ja'Marr Chase - Cincinnati
    Investment
    : Pick 5
    This pick had a lot of value and Cinn stuck with Chase. This makes sense because both Burrow and Chase had their best college season together.
    Preseason -Chase seriously underwhelmed in preseason. In two games he was targeted 5 times, with 4 drops. The one catch he made was a screen pass. This could be a reflection of rust from opting out. The Bengals are looking for Chase to step up once the regular season starts.

    7. Penei Sewell - Detroit
    Investment
    : Pick 7
    Pick 7 still had a lot of value and Detroit invested it in Sewell. He went lower than some expected so the gamble side of this is not so large.
    Preseason -Sewell has struggled so far, allowing multiple sacks and pressures against the Bills. Another opt out player struggling in preseason. PFF rated his preseason performance as Detroit's 3rd worst linemen, ahead off two guys that got cut. He be lining up across from Nick Bosa on Sunday so clearly he is going to need to improve fast.

    8. Justin Fields - Chicago
    Investment
    : Pick 11 and 164 (1) (5)
    Fields ends up costing Chicago two firsts and two lower round picks. Went lower than expected and not in the top 10, but still a large investment at 2 firsts a fourth and a fifth.
    Preseason -Fields looked raw but confident. Both his strength of mobility and weakness in reads were on display. Needs development and probably shouldn't be starting next Sunday. Stayed healthy.

    9. Jaycee Horn - Carolina
    Investment
    : Pick 8
    The top 12 picks were so valuable in the last draft and the Panthers stuck with Horn. Perhaps the biggest gamble was taking him ahead of Patrick Surtain. Will that turn out to be the right move? Also, the Panthers did not use this pick to upgrade an already shaky o-line.
    Preseason -Horn was stellar this preseason being targeted 5 times with 5 PDs. He has the early look of being a future lockdown corner. Stayed healthy.

    10. Devonta Smith - Philadelphia
    Investment
    : Pick 10 & 84
    The Heisman winner cost the Eagles pick 10 and their third. The gamble with Smith was never about talent and always about his size. We'll see if how it plays out.
    Preseason -Not a great preseason. Sprained knee forced him to see limited action in camp. Two catches on 4 targets in his lone game, with two drops. The upside was he got off the line clean and beat the coverage every target. Can he be covered one on one and stay healthy? Expected to start as the #1 opening day.

    11. Alijah Vera-Tucker - New York Jets
    Investment
    : Pick 14, 66, & 86
    Jets were thin at guard and spent three picks to land a top prospect. Tucker was viewed as the best guard in a lean guard draft. Quite a lot of capital spent on a non blue chip prospect. We are gambling Tucker becomes a solid starter at RG for many years to come.
    Preseason -Did not play any preseason snaps due to injured pectoral muscle. Showed some talent in limited camp work. Concern with another opt out player who has now missed most of camp will be starting opening day. Will he have rust? He is a player to watch week 1.

    12. Patrick Surtain II - Denver
    Investment: Pick 9

    Surtain went top 10 and IMO is the least risky pick on this list. He was rated highly and was the seemingly best CB pick available.
    Preseason -Stellar. Gave up 1 catch in 6 targets and had a pick 6. Like Horn, he looks to be a potential lockdown corner and potential DROY.

    There you have it. These are the players teams have taken the biggest gambles on last draft. It is notable that we have two players on the list.

    What is notable is we face everyone on the list this season except Fields, Sewell, and Lance. That means Zach will see both young stud CBs. Should be an interesting test. We will also have to find ways to cover Pitts, Chase, Waddle, and Smith with our young defensive backfield. Youth vs youth. This is gonna be an interesting season. I cant wait to see how it all plays out.
     
    #1 ouchy, Sep 6, 2021
    Last edited: Sep 9, 2021
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  2. Jonathan_Vilma

    Jonathan_Vilma Well-Known Member

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    So basically the top ten picks are the biggest gambles + the trade up you're so adamant about being a bad one that the Jets made?

    FWIW I didn't like the trade up either but this is pretty much the same drum you've been banging all off-season my man. Not knocking the thread but it's easy to see your real point.
     
  3. ouchy

    ouchy Well-Known Member

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    Lots of gambles taken. Yes we gambled the most and obviously we will track them. My real point is there are a lot of interesting players to track this season beyond the Jets. I'm excited to see a lot of players on opening say.
     
  4. Jonathan_Vilma

    Jonathan_Vilma Well-Known Member

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    Well I would counter with the rebuttal that this isn't truly a thread on the gambles taken as it's just basically the top 10/11 picks. It's moreso an analysis (a good one) of tracking the top picks.

    The pick that made the least sense to me, even though I love the players potential, is Chase to the Bengals. They already had two good young playmakers at receiver. They needed Sewell in the worst way.
     
    #4 Jonathan_Vilma, Sep 6, 2021
    Last edited: Sep 6, 2021
  5. CotcheryFan

    CotcheryFan 2018 ROTY Poster Award Winner

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    Biggest gamble to me was the Bengals taking Chase over Sewell when they needed OL help.
     
  6. FJF

    FJF 2018 MVP Joe Namath Award Winner

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    I love the trade up for avt. When you have as many picks as we did you know they’re all not making the team. So getting the best prospect at a position of need by giving up a little extra isn’t that big of deal. This isn’t like Tanny and his 3 player drafts
     
    #6 FJF, Sep 6, 2021
    Last edited: Sep 6, 2021
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  7. Noam

    Noam Well-Known Member

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    If you believe the Jets FO they were very likely to use the 23rd pick on Moore and the 66th pick on Carter. What this means is we effectively gave up the 34th pick 86th pick while swapping 4th rounders. What we actually gave up in the 34th and 86th picks along with the swap of 4th rounders for AVT is not much of a gamble rather it could be considered a steal.
     
  8. ouchy

    ouchy Well-Known Member

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    By this logic using picks 14, 34, and 86 on AVT is a steal. If he turns out to be Quenton Nelson then maybe your right. But he was not projected to be that good.
    Its not comforting me that we would have taken Moore at 23 when we got him at 34, and would have taken Carter at 66 when we got him at 107.
     
  9. Footballgod214

    Footballgod214 Well-Known Member

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    I agree. Was 4 for 4 including Lance to 9ers but thought Bungles would play it smart and take a good LT, so i lost the draft game.
     
  10. Noam

    Noam Well-Known Member

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    You are confused. By that logic (that we would have used pick 23 on Moore and 66 on Carter absent a trade) we gave up the 34th and 86 pick plus the swap of 4th rounders for AVT or the 14th pick as both are equal in this scenario. Not both.
     
  11. Jonathan_Vilma

    Jonathan_Vilma Well-Known Member

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    No but we also need volume of players as evident by the roster turnover. I'd bet 23, 34 and 86 all would've made the roster. It's not like we gave up a bunch of sixth rounders in the move up or moved up in the 4th round.
     
  12. FJF

    FJF 2018 MVP Joe Namath Award Winner

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    We need top end players as much as volume. This was the year we could actually do both. Especially considering the hail we have next year too. There’s a time and place for everything, I can’t see a more perfect time to make that move than last draft, all things considered.
     
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  13. BrowningNagle

    BrowningNagle Well-Known Member

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    AVT better be good. You trade 3 picks for a guard and he's not good? That's a disastrous move
     
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  14. BroadwayAaron

    BroadwayAaron Well-Known Member

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    Rebuilds don’t happen in a year. I don’t think trading picks to move up for a G when you desperately need one is the same when you have a boatload of picks coming the following year in the first four rounds. If AVT is a staple on the left side for the next 8-10 years no one is even going to remember we traded up for him unless someone is just dying to be miserable.

    But basically the thing I gather from this post is that you should draft every because it’s a risk.
     
  15. LAJet

    LAJet Well-Known Member

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    What does it mean “ for a guard” like that is an inferior position. OL was top priority and protecting Wilson was crucial and required a solid OL. Trading three picks for someone that is not good is disastrous regarding of the position. So there is that. This sounds like Mac comments “we can get guard in the later rounds BS” an action that never materialized. Apparently we have forgotten the errors we committed with Sam not long ago.,
     
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  16. BrowningNagle

    BrowningNagle Well-Known Member

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    Let me put it this way......If you traded a 1st and 2 3rd round picks, like the Jets did to move up to select Tucker, you could probably trade for any guard in the NFL easily, even the best in the game.

    So if Tucker isn't good then it was a bad trade.
     
  17. bicketybam

    bicketybam Well-Known Member

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    They fucking swapped 1sts. They didn't give up a first. You think we could have swapped firsts (with us getting the higher 1st) and give up 2 3rd round picks for the best guard in football?! Jesus dude.
     
  18. abyzmul

    abyzmul R.J. MacReady, 2018 Funniest Member Award Winner

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    Yeah that's usually how it works.
     
  19. dawinner127

    dawinner127 Well-Known Member

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    [​IMG]
    Dude sat out a year.. Hopefully he was training with NFL balls..
     
  20. jonnyd

    jonnyd 2007 TGG.com Funniest Poster Award Winner

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    im confused by the premise of this thread
     

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