https://www.si.com/nfl/jets/news/re...-new-york-jets-rookie-quarterback-zach-wilson Per Conor Orr, SI's chief NFL scout. He is very high on Zach and has set some pretty high expectations for him in his rookie season, which he argues are entirely reasonable, given his skill-set. The Full article is linked above. Here is a snippet of what he had to say about Zach: My expectations for Wilson this year are: 17 starts, minimum of 23 touchdowns, minimu of 3,900 passing yards, 15 or fewer interceptions, minimum 60% completion rate The extreme vacillations in Wilson’s college numbers, despite having had the same coach and coordinator, are still puzzling to me. He went from a capable 12-touchdown, three-interception player as a freshman to an 11/9 player his sophomore year to a 33/3 player his junior season. Wilson has always been an impressive thrower who can think above the scheme. There are a number of examples in BYU’s offense where he would operate outside of the typical RPO formula to make plays (for example, the math in the box dictated a pass, but he read a crease and handed the ball off for a big gain) or shift to the second or third read in order to make a play that wasn’t necessarily designed to go to a certain place. In short, nobody can doubt that he has both the arm AND the brain to succeed in the NFL. The nagging issue here is how he performed under pressure. The Jets allowed a sack every 12 dropbacks last season, and Wilson was barely touched during his final year. In the piece linked to above, Wilson’s former offensive coordinator argued that he has faced pressure in the past, though the evidence there isn’t encouraging. Wilson had a 38.8 Independent Quarterback Rating (IQR)—a stat from Sports Info Solutions that removes extraneous events like dropped balls, spikes and other irrelevant plays that often affect quarterback rating—when under pressure in 2019 and a 61.2 when facing pressure in 2018. All of a sudden that number jumped to 111.2 in 2020 when the schedule softened significantly and his offensive line dominated overmatched opponents during a COVID-abbreviated season.
Pressure busts pipes and in this case people are wondering if last year was some massive fluke. But the fact that he improved tremendously under pressure speaks that also the game may have slowed down for him to where he processed information quicker. He found success. It’s def a different animal in the NFL but having some sort of success and being in a scheme where he won’t have to overhaul his thinking may do him wonders.
Thanks for posting this. The extreme vacillations in Wilson's college numbers are easily explainable. It's mind boggling to me why/how people get confused. Some people act like it's rocket science or something. He had a pretty good freshman year even though he played with a torn labrum in his throwing shoulder, was just learning the offense, and was still learning to play the position and maturing bothy physically and mentally. His sophomore year was up and down, mostly down because prior to that season he had had surgery to repair the torn labrum in his throwing shoulder and missed all of spring practice. Look at how most of the rookies played last year in the NFL after having had no mini-camps, no OTAs, an abbreviated TC and no preseason. His shoulder strength was not there to start the season, he didn't have his accuracy back, and it "felt" different throwing the ball. Muscle memory and "feel" are of paramount importance to all athletes, but especially to QBs and pitchers. On top of that, Zach broke his hand making a tackle and missed a couple of games because of that. If anything, it's amazing that he played as well as he did at times rallying BYU on the road vs Tennessee and USC. Then before his junior season, his OC had told him that he was going to have to compete for the starting job. In addition to the extra determination and focus that gave him, he spent a LOT of time working with his QB Coach Chip Beck. In addition, he was finally healthy, more mature physically, mentally, and emotionally, really knew the BYU offense backwards and forwards, and had spent all that time watching video of other QBs as well as of himself and BYU. If he had talent or potential at all, it would have been surprising if his junior season wasn't better. The fact that it was so much better can be attributed to his talent, his work ethic, the easier schedule, and perhaps the added focus Covid provided
so if Zack had been playing here for the last 3, running for his life behind the worse Olins(s) in football, he'd be playing for the Panthers this season?
18-21 is huge for development. Why is hard to believe he got better mentally and physically? He grew up and matured. Why is this so hard to comprehend? Did Fields even see the field his Frosh season?
Yeah I mean sometimes huge improvements can happen; look at how much better Josh Allen got last year.
he's a rookie and the NFL is hard on rookie QBs. and we face a lot of good defenses. I don't have high expectations. I'd be happy with a 3500, 25 TDs, 15 INT, 60% line. I'm more looking for progression as the year goes on. Limit mistakes, learn form mistakes, don't turn it over too much. don't be afraid to check down. and take deep shots here and there
Is it just me or do the same people that downplay and dismiss Zach's injury history go straight to it to excuse his early stats?
In the same way those who claim he has an extensive injury history are puzzled by his regression his sophomore season. Where is the line between having an injury and having an injury history?
A torn labrum affects performance before being repaired and shortly after repair. It also has a low likelihood of re-tearing after repair. I don't see what you're trying to say.
I wouldn't call it extensive, but I wouldn't call it insignificant either. It's certainly significant enough to be called upon whenever anyone wonders about those first two seasons.
ehhhh.... i know a few people that have re-torn it (including my brother) and one reason why I never got mine fixed
Been dealing with it for years..... managed to rehab it back, but every 5 years or so manage to re-injure it, until it reached "slap-tear" stage.....at least it's my left arm anyway "My expectations for Wilson this year are: 17 starts, minimum of 23 touchdowns, minimu of 3,900 passing yards, 15 or fewer interceptions, minimum 60% completion rate" When do rookie QBs entering the league on a shitty team EVER have stats like this
