The 2021 Jets and Beyond have a Bright Future

Discussion in 'New York Jets' started by The Dark Knight, Dec 23, 2020.

  1. Jonathan_Vilma

    Jonathan_Vilma Well-Known Member

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    I don't really love futures but I do love taking big odds like that if they're available for small amounts of money.
     
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  2. Footballgod214

    Footballgod214 Well-Known Member

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    OK OK. So I'll place TWO $100 bets, one for you, one for me. If the Jets win the SB, I'll keep both! But I'll post vids of me living the high life on your 8 grand! Maybe I'll send you a Jets hat! ;)
     
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  3. NCJetsfan

    NCJetsfan Well-Known Member

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    https://jetsxfactor.com/2021/05/16/5-stats-the-new-york-jets-are-very-likely-to-improve-in-2021/

    Here are five key statistical areas where the New York Jets have a great chance of improving over their massive struggles in 2020.

    37.2 net yards per punt (30th)
    The Jets’ punting unit struggled in 2020, ranking 30th in net yards per punt (37.2) and DVOA (defense-adjusted value over average).

    Both rookie punter Braden Mann and his coverage team played a part in the poor output. Mann ranked 29th out of 31 qualifiers in average punt distance (43.9 yards) and placed as PFF’s 20th-ranked punter (64.4 overall grade). The coverage team was brutal, allowing the sixth-most yards per punt return (11.7) even with Mann making three amazing touchdown-saving tackles.

    There are reasons to be hopeful that the Jets are going to turn this weakness into a strength in 2021. Number one, Mann showed gradual improvement throughout his rookie season. From Weeks 8-17, Mann ranked fifth among qualified punters in average hang time per punt (4.46 seconds) and graded as the 11th-best punter at PFF (67.1 overall grade).

    Secondly, the coverage team is poised to improve after the Jets added a bevy of speed and special teams talent to the backend of their roster.

    Former Saints coverage star Justin Hardee is the main attraction. Hardee earned a 90.4 special teams grade at PFF in 2020, sixth-best out of 193 qualifiers. For his career, Hardee has a 6.6-to-1 ratio of tackles to missed tackles on special teams, more than double the 2020 NFL average (2.9-to-1).

    Joe Douglas also added a good deal of athletic prospects in the draft who could make a positive impact in punt coverage. Michael Carter II (4.36 forty), Brandin Echols (4.36), Isaiah Dunn (4.38), and Jason Pinnock (4.49 at 204 pounds) all bring plenty of athletic ability to the table. Obviously, there’s no guarantee that athleticism translates to good special teams play (there’s a lot more to it than raw speed), but there is no question that the unit’s ceiling has been raised by the influx of great athletes.

    With continued progress from Mann, the addition of a special teams star in Hardee, and some improvement to the athleticism of the roster’s backend, the Jets should fare a lot better in the punting game next season.


    94 pressures from edge rushers (29th)
    Quarterbacks have enjoyed throwing from cushy pockets against the Jets for years.

    Those days are no more.

    The addition of Carl Lawson changes everything for a Jets franchise that has not had an intimidating edge rusher since John Abraham. Lawson had 64 pressures in 2020, fourth-most among edge rushers. The Jets’ top-two edge threats – Tarell Basham and Jordan Jenkins – combined for 63 pressures.

    Don’t forget about the impact that Vinny Curry can have over a small dosage of opportunities. Curry created pressures on 14.0% of his pass-rush snaps in 2020, ranking at the 94th percentile among qualified edge rushers.


    386 receiving yards from RBs (30th)
    The Jets got very little out of their running backs in the passing game last year. No Jets running back hit 100 receiving yards (Ty Johnson led the way with 99), and the group scored only one touchdown through the air (courtesy of Johnson against the Rams in Week 15).

    Adam Gase did not make the position a focal point in the passing game, as the Jets ranked 27th with 73 targets to running backs. However, he could hardly be blamed for doing so, as the group was not efficient when given chances. New York’s running backs averaged 5.3 yards per target, ranking 24th.

    These numbers are likely to be turned around in 2021. Firstly, Mike LaFleur comes from a 49ers offense that heavily utilized its backs in the passing game, so the position should be prioritized in the aerial attack more than it was with Gase at the helm. San Francisco’s backfield (including fullback Kyle Juszczyk) ranked fifth in receiving yards (828) and targets (129) in 2020. The unit ranked eighth in yards per target (6.5).

    In addition, the Jets have improved the pass-catching talent of their backfield.

    Tevin Coleman is a top-notch receiving back. For his career, Coleman has averaged 7.2 yards per target and has picked up a first down or a touchdown on 32.5% of his targets – those are elite numbers for a running back (2020 positional averages: 5.7 and 24.9%).

    Fourth-round pick Michael Carter was a great receiving option at North Carolina. In 2020, he averaged 8.9 yards per target and posted a 43.3% conversion rate, averaging 24.3 receiving yards per game and catching two touchdowns over 11 games.


    54.8 run blocking grade from WRs and TEs (25th)
    Skill position blocking has not been a strength for the Jets in a while. Their struggles to generate an exciting outside run game or screen game have largely been due to their lack of quality blockers at wide receiver at tight end. In 2020, the Jets’ wide receivers and tight ends combined for a run blocking grade of 54.8 at PFF, ranking 25th in the NFL.

    With LaFleur likely to install an offense that will be heavily reliant on outside runs and manufactured underneath touches in the passing game, the blocking quality of the Jets’ skill position players is going to be crucial.

    The team put a clear emphasis on this skill with their additions in free agency:
    • Corey Davis: 67.5 run blocking grade in 2020 (77th percentile among WR)
    • Keelan Cole: 64.8 run blocking grade in 2020 (74th percentile among WR)
    • Tyler Kroft: 63.8 run blocking grade in 2020 (68th percentile among TE)
    Finally, the Jets’ playmakers will have some holes to work with on the edge.

    8.1 yards per target allowed by LBs (26th)
    The Jets allowed the most receiving yards to tight ends (1,105) and the eighth-most receiving yards to running backs (673). Their struggles with covering non-wide receivers were mostly due to the linebacker position.

    New York’s linebackers combined to allow 1,025 passing yards over 126 targets, an average of 8.1 yards per target that ranked seventh-worst among the league’s linebacker groups. Opponents had a 108.5 passer rating when targeting the Jets’ linebackers.

    While there are question marks at the linebacker spots beside him, C.J. Mosley will represent a major boost for the Jets in this area. Since 2016, Mosley has a PFF coverage grade of 73.1. That mark would have placed Mosley at the 87th percentile among qualified linebackers in 2020. The Jets’ linebackers in 2020 combined for a 50.1 coverage grade (25th among the 32 LB units).

    It wouldn’t be fair to expect too much out of rookies Jamien Sherwood and Hamsah Nasirildeen (in addition to the volatile Jarrad Davis and the wild-card Blake Cashman), but Robert Saleh and Jeff Ulbrich have excelled at developing linebackers, especially in the passing game.

    Saleh’s background lies largely in coaching linebackers (spending time as a linebackers coach with the Texans and Jaguars), and he oversaw tremendous linebacker production during his tenure as the 49ers’ defensive coordinator. In 2020, San Francisco’s linebackers posted the best coverage grade of any LB unit in the NFL (75.5).

    Ulbrich earned a similar reputation as the Falcons’ linebackers coach from 2015-20. This past season, Atlanta’s linebackers had the sixth-best coverage grade of any LB unit (65.9).

    What makes the development of Saleh and Ulbrich’s linebackers most impressive is that neither man was working with elite-level talent. There was not a single linebacker on either coach’s 2020 roster that was a first-round pick. Saleh helped grow third-round pick Fred Warner into a superstar, while fifth-round pick Dre Greenlaw has become a solid starter. Down south, Ulbrich led second-round pick Deion Jones to stardom and developed sixth-round Foyesade Oluokun into a versatile starter (in a role similar to what the Jets are projecting for their rookies).

    A healthy Mosley alone will substantially improve the Jets’ coverage at linebacker, but if Saleh and Ulbrich can continue their trend of developing athletic late-round linebackers into quality starters, the possibility exists that the Jets’ linebacker unit establishes itself as one of the better pass-covering groups in the league.
     
  4. The Dark Knight

    The Dark Knight Well-Known Member

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    Yeah, something similar to that, but hopefully a little more balanced with a stronger offense and better QB play. No Red, Yellow, Green wristbands! And I would love a Super Bowl run, but I will be happy with a competitive football team! :)
     
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  5. CotcheryFan

    CotcheryFan 2018 ROTY Poster Award Winner

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    The 2009 team had a top 5 OL, top 5 running game, top 5 pass D, and a solid group of pass catchers. They were far more established than the 2021 group. Don't expect an unexpected AFCCG appearance this year.
     
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  6. Footballgod214

    Footballgod214 Well-Known Member

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    Yessir. Every fan should start the season with SB aspirations. We don't switch gears to the 2022 draft until we absolutely have to!
     
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  7. cval

    cval Well-Known Member

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    What was that week three last season?
     
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  8. The Dark Knight

    The Dark Knight Well-Known Member

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    I held out longer than most, and made it all the way til Sam was body-slammed on his shoulder Week 4. Then I knew it was over.
    [​IMG]
    But that is the past. This thread is about the future! :cool:
     
  9. jetophile

    jetophile Bruce Coslet's Daughter

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    You're always and always have been "somehow filled with optimism", haha. You're like Greg Bubbles (it's what I call Greg Buttle). The Jets can get clobbered 195-3 and he'll come out with something like but so and so made an outstanding tackle, that's something to be proud of!

    Don't ever change, though. It's a great counterbalance to those on suicide watch even when the Jets win a great or critical game. Fun post with a lot of incidental pain thrown in. GO JETS!
     
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  10. LAJet

    LAJet Well-Known Member

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    Nicely said Jetophile. We can never have enough optimism on this forum, and our TTG friend The Dark Night is nothing but a Bright Sunshine Day when it comes to the Jets. Love his optimism.
     
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  11. NCJetsfan

    NCJetsfan Well-Known Member

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    and

    I agree with both of you. Love TDK's optimism!
     
  12. The Dark Knight

    The Dark Knight Well-Known Member

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    Haha, thank you jeto! Yeah, the Jets have definitely tested my patience and optimism lately, but I really feel they are in a good spot right now! :)

    Thanks, @LAJet! Let's hope Joe Douglas, Robert Saleh and Zach Wilson give every fan a reason to have Bright Sunshine Days when watching the Jets from now on!

    Thanks, @NCJetsfan! The tough part is trying to balance being optimistic and realistic at the same time. I think I have gotten much better at that in recent years.
     
  13. PennyandtheJets

    PennyandtheJets Well-Known Member

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    I have PLENTY of optimism considering we already have some of the premier positions potentially/already filled.

    Offense
    Zach Wilson
    Mehki Becton
    Alijah Vera-Tucker
    Denzel Mims
    Corey Davis
    Elijah Moore

    Defense
    Quinnen Williams
    Carl Lawson
    Bryce Hall (Has a shot to be a really solid CB2)

    Feeling happy? Look at next year's treasure trove of picks....

    2022 Draft Picks
    1st
    1st
    2nd
    2nd
    3rd
    4th
    4th
    5th
    5th
    6th
    6th
    6th
    7th
     
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  14. K'OB

    K'OB 2021 TGG Fantasy Football Champ

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    What, only the one third-rounder, that's where you get all the talent, isn't it?

    ;)
     
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  15. major33

    major33 Well-Known Member

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    ButtBird yelled at me for expressing optimism about our future. :(
     
  16. Ralebird

    Ralebird Well-Known Member

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    Wrong, Jackass!

    I said you can have all the pie in the sky you want but it's out of line for you to tell everyone else that they should be excited just because you're so easily led down the primrose path. How about waiting for some positive results on the playing field?
     
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  17. bicketybam

    bicketybam Well-Known Member

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    You're better than that!
     
  18. Dierking

    Dierking Well-Known Member

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    Just gonna put this here, because why the fuck not?

    [​IMG]
     
  19. Footballgod214

    Footballgod214 Well-Known Member

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    @The Dark Knight you're gonna have to change your handle to The White Knight!
     
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  20. Lon Chaney

    Lon Chaney Well-Known Member

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    Becton: 74.4 overall PFF grade (3rd among rookie OT)
    Guidry: 77.8 zone coverage grade (2nd among rookie CB)
    Hall: 75.4 zone coverage grade (3rd among rookie CB)
    Huff: 14.8% pass rush win rate (2nd among rookie EDGE)
    Mims: 15.5 yds/rec (5th among rookie WR)

    Saw this on the Twatter. Pretty cool stuff. We really need Ashtyn Davis to take a big step up this year.
     
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