Assuming Wilson starts all 16 games what stay line would make you feel like we got out FQB. Grantes stats don't tell the whole story as they are closely tied to the talent around him. This is purely hypothetical. I'd love to see something like this: 65% completion, 25 passing TD's (another 5 rushing) and less than 10 INT's. Passing yards to be around 3500 and Y/PA to be 8 or higher. I'd like to see a passer rating close to 90. Considering how poor the QB play has been on this team I think this would be outstanding for a rookie on a team that was 2-14 the previous year.
17 games also vegas has the O/U on his yards at 3850. which is about 3625 in a 16 game season. to put that in perspective, the jets have only had a QB throw for that many yards in a season 5 times in history namath 4007 (1967) fitz 3905 (2015) Ken o brien 3690 and 3888 (1985 and 1986) vinny 3732 (2000) anyway to answer your question i'm gonna be pretty optimistic 63% completions 3600 yards 24TDs 16 Ints QBR 83.5 (based on above stats) and about 550 attempts I'd be pretty happy with a rookie season like that
I think it's certainly possible that he could hit those marks, but probably not very likely with Saleh, LaFleur and Zach all being rookies, and the offense learning a new system. It would be awesome if he did hit them. I don't care so much about stats in general, but specifically the ypa or rushing TDs. I think he will probably be around 65% completion percentage unless he has a lot of passes deflected. He should be somewhere between 20-25 TD, and hopefully 15 or fewer interceptions. I think his passer rating should be somewhere in the 85-95 range.
I think the key for Wilson is to avoid the clunkers. Darnold was seemingly good for 3-4 of those a year. I think Wilson is more polished than Darnold as well.
Comp % - 65% TDs - 25+ INTs - <16 Yds - 3500 *This could be lower if LaFleur uses more run than pass to simplify and ease Zach into things, but if it's lower because he's not completing passes, then that wouldn't be good. But in general I want to see him maintain his confidence and lead the team. This is more important than raw stats. Looking at Namath's stats with today's eyes anyone who never saw him play would say "What's the big deal?", but he led the Jets. I want to see that again.
Rookie QB starting more half the games and ending up with a +65% completion percentage? How many of those have there been in NFL History? Three? Four? *I found Roethelisburger, Prescott, Herbert, RGIII. If you can find others let me know.
I honestly just want 3-4 games where he looks like he’s a superstar franchise QB. I feel Sam may have had 1 excellent game and a few good ones even in his rookie year. He’s gonna have stinkers and bad games too but I want promise. Stats maybe around 61% completion , 3700 yards, 25 TD’s 13 INT’s. The counting stats at the end may not mean much to me, but give me the big time games Zach ...
Relieved to see that most are not expecting fewer than 10 picks. He could get half a dozen just on tipped balls before he adjusts to the size and speed of pass rushers.
Right? Sheesh some of these predictions are high. I think he could potentially be in the Carr/Winston/Mariota range give or take some statistics. People forget that the GOAT prospect of all time was 23/18 TD/INT on 54.1%. Not sure why Wilson, the downfield thrower, is going to have this high completion percentage. https://www.statmuse.com/nfl/ask/most-passing-touchdowns-in-a-rookie-season
anyone expecting him to produce his college number of 3 INT his senior year is insane. as a rookie in the NFL and double the games he played last year i'd be shocked if he kept it under 10.
In this offence I think it will be something like this: 3500 passing yards 250 rushing yards 22 Passing TDs 4 Rushing TDs 10 INT 62% completions 90 QBR
A lot of these numbers are pretty optimistic. The main thing I want to see is limited turnovers. If he can do that and throw a decent number of TD's with a decent completion % I'll be optimistic for the future.
IMO the best rookie season ever was RG3's. His passing numbers were as efficient as Herbert's (and in 2011, it was harder to be that efficient) and while he didn't throw the ball as much, he also rushed for over 800 yards. And he carried Washington into the playoffs. Unfortunately he was never able to replicate it, but it was incredible while it was happening.
