I think Lawrence is a 50/50 pick and by that I mean 50/50 to work out and probably 50/50 to be a star if he works out. 25% chance at what everybody says he is going to be. That's still leaps and bounds above the chance that the other QB's in this draft have. Peyton was maybe 75/25 coming in the door and it took two plus years for the NFL to decide he had made the grade. There were still people whispering about "Peyton's never won a playoff game" until 2003, which is the first year he actually won a game in the post-season. Andrew Luck was maybe 80/20 coming in the door from Stanford where he had been groomed to be not just a great QB but a great NFL QB. Lawrence is 50/50 due to all sorts of factors that didn't affect the two above. He has been injured and he has a very lanky frame - more like a basketball shooting guard than a QB. He has the "God's Plan" thing going on although not overtly nor on display for attention the way it is with some other athletes. He has been widely seen as a well-rounded guy who is not completely obsessed with football - so much so that he had to do an interview recently to express his passion for football. In short it's pretty clear that there are other things driving Trevor Lawrence than just the desire to be a great football player. All of that said he is still the best QB prospect to come down the pike since Luck and I would take him in a heartbeat if the Jets got the opportunity.
Regarding the last sentence in bold - are hybrid QB's really that prevalent or effective? Top 10 QB's from last season in some order: Rodgers Watson Brady Allen Mahomes Wilson Brees Herbert Tannehill Lamar I'd say 2 of those guys are hybrid QB's, Lamar and Allen. Most of the rest are mobile but not true dual threat QB's. I really think people supporting Fields are highly overrating how prevalent effective dual threat QB's are in the NFL. There aren't that many of them in the first place and a significant percentage of the ones that do exist end up getting hurt. Does anyone here think Lamar is going to have a 15 year career? The most effective QB's in the NFL are mobile guys who are elite passers first and foremost and always look to pass above all else.
A lot of his errant throws have come from stupidity, not scheme. I wish I had video editing capabilities, maybe one day. Anyway.. The bad moments and throws I see far too much with Zach Wilson, come from a lot of hero ball antics. People talk about his processing speed but I don't think It's great after watching all of his games. He has a quick release but that covers up a lot of BS that he wont get away with In the NFL. He hold onto the ball waaaaaaaay too long a lot of the time. His fantastic OL allowed for him to do so, but, a lot of those throws got the receiver "murdered". A lot of them just wouldn't work In the NFL. I'm also seeing him make the same dumb mistakes that Darnold did.. IE: Darnold would swing out of the pocket to avoid pressure, potentially make a play by extension, with ample time to throw It away If the play Isn't there to make. Instead of throwing It away, he would run out of bounds and take a hefty loss. I seen ZW do this several times. It's astounding how that even happens, let alone, many times over. A lot of the throws he makes, he just wont get away with In the NFL. He was punished more-so for those type of throws In his first two seasons. Yeah. I appreciate your view, I hope you are right overall. It's totally fine to disagree with me, I get It. I know I can't help what I see though. I hope I'm wrong.
I take issue with this assumption that all or even most of the guys we'd pick with additional draft capital would be all pros. Most first round picks bust. RB's have among the lowest bust chance and even they bust more than 50% of the time. You can't just say "If we traded the #2 pick we'd be getting 2-3 all pros from it." It doesn't work like that. There's a significant chance we'd end up with no all pros from those picks.
The most effective QB in the NFL last year was a guy who slides around the pocket a lot and rarely runs except for a 1st down when it is wide open. Most of the other effective QB's last year were in that vein also, although a few of the young guys who have not really been exposed to enough hits yet to calm them down were more frisky. Those guys will mostly calm down over the next few years or be retired by injuries.
It's funny because I saw a lot more hero ball from Fields than Wilson last season. Also you say Wilson holds the ball too long when it's a fact that Fields holds the ball for longest on average of any of the prospects?
Brady is Brady, GOAT gonna GOAT. I think Mahomes and Rodgers are the archetype for the modern successful NFL QB. Mobile, can escape pressure, accurate with strong arms and only run as a last resort. Fields runs as a 2nd resort. If his first read or two aren't there he looks to run immediately. He also runs highly often under pressure rather than escaping the immediate threat and still looking to pass.
I think Rodgers was a bit of an outlier for his time. He has run about 3 times a game over the course of a 200+ game NFL career. Mahomes runs a bit more often than that but he is positioned to be the Aaron Rodgers outlier for his era. Everybody else who is running a lot is going to get hurt. It's kind of an inevitable thing and I think it is going to get worse not better now that the NFL has thoroughly outlawed going low and going high. That means that defensive players are lining up shots against the body and they can hit a lot harder when they do that. Bigger target to go for and more mass on both sides in the collision.
lol why don't you tell us what you REALLY think of Rich Cimini, Matt? Please, don't hold back....lol....
I obviously favor taking Wilson at 2, Br4d, but I have to admit, that you did raise several valid points, including that I placed in bold. Definitely food for thought. I would LOVE to be a team that had a QB but which was drafting somewhere in the top 12 in this draft....the entire top 4-5 being "QB-crazy" teams is going to push several elite prospects at other positions to other teams in the top 10-12.
I believe it is the Northwestern game that is actually worse. That's the one where he was heavily pressured and had such a bad game and his completion percentage was 44.4%. He was 12 for 27 for 114 yards, no TDs, and 2 interceptions. His QB rating was 65.1 and adjusted raing 33.4. Contrast that with Wilson's lowest QB rating ever for a game was 101.0 and adjusted QBR was 61.6 in a loss in 2019 and he still threw for 316 yards in that loss. Wilson has never had that bad a game even following his shoulder or hand surgeries. Field's ability to handle pressure is a major concern/red flag imo, and that's one of the most damning red flags a QB can have.
^^^I will give you this, MeanDean, even though we disagree about Zach Wilson, it is patently obvious from reading your posts that you HAVE studied film of him and have formed thoughtful and informed opinions of him as a QB prospect. I will definitely admit that much. Even though we disagree, I enjoy reading your informed and critical posts about Zach. Gives me some food for thought.
1999 - Couch, McNabb, Smith top 3 all QB's #4 - Edgerrin James (HoF) #5 - Ricky Williams (Hall of Strange but a great player) #6 - Torry Holt (great WR not quite HoF) #7 - Champ Bailey (HoF) In 1999 all the bad teams had QB fever because of Peyton.
In my book, you have pocket passers who you cringe when you see them run, then you have running QBs that are capable of 800-1200 rushing yards in a season. In between is the hybrid, but the ones I'm talking about are capable of hurting you with their legs if you dare them to. Lamar and Kyler are runners, Allen to a lesser extent. Mahomes, Prescott, Watson, Wilson are hybrids.
I agree, NCJetsFan....personally, I was stunned at how poorly Fields played in that Northwestern game.....he really struggled against Northwestern's pressure....looked completely out of sorts the entire game.
I don't think that's going to happen anyway, assuming that JD will fix the OL and really upgrade the offensive skill positions, and that Saleh and La Fleur and the QB/Passing Coaches are comeptent. It will be the Jets who pick Wilson, not Wilson picks the Jets, so in a sense it will be the Jets' fault, especially if JD drafts defense early this year rather than ensuring that the OL is fixed and the offensive skill positions upgraded. Still, Wilson has to adapt, learn and grow. If he doesn't, he could fail, and that failure would be on him if JD has fixed the OL and markedly upgraded the skill position players on offense around him. He has to temper his aggressiveness, learn to read NFL Ds, and improve his decision making. I'm truly not concerned about that. I believe that he will, and he will be a top 10 QB in the NFL.
I totally disagree with the bold. Until this year, JD was not able to fire/hire the HC or even give him orders. He was a peer of the HC. JD arrived after the 2019 FA and draft, so there was little he could do that year to help improve the OL or make the team better. This past year, with Covid, and his not even being sure the NFL was going to have a season, he wasn't about to spend a ton of money recklessly. IMO it's ridiculous to fault Douglas when he is being responsible in FA and doesn't want to way overpay mediocre players to come to the Jets. So what could JD have done further to prevent Sam's failing here? Was he somehow responsible for Darnold never fixing his footwork, and thus in turn fixing his accuracy and reducing TOs? Was he to blame for Sam's horrible QB play and lousy decision making when high school QBs know to throw the ball away to avoid sacks, and know not to throw into double or triple coverage? Is he responsible for what Jordan Palmer didn't teach him? Is he to blame that Gase never hired a QB Coach, didn't coach Sam on the sidelines during the game, didn't adapt his system to help Sam, or teach Sam how to read Ds? Is Sam just a helpless victim with no responsibility? NO. Sam could have helped himself and the team immensely by fixing his footwork/mechanics so that his accuracy was improved. He could have also worked with Palmer on film study and reading Ds. Then there's the fact that he may have worked with Palmer on these things, and is simply incapable of changing. He may not have the mental aptitude to play the QB position. If true, how is JD to blame for that? JD could have re-signed Anderson and drafted another WR last year, but would it have made any difference when Sam can't see the field and missed Mims wide open a bunch of times, and couldn't hit other open WRs and instead threw into double and triple coverage routinely? Would Gase have even called Anderson's number? Was it JD's fault that so many WRs got injured last season? I suppose that he could have drafted an OL instead of Ashtyn Davis, but what impact did Damien Lewis, Lloyd Cushenberry, Josh Jones or Jonah Jackson have this past season? Lewis started and played every game for the Seahawks last year, but was he any good/been an improvement over Lewis or Van Roten? The same goes for Cushenberry. He started every game for the Broncos, but would he have been an improvement over McGovern or Lewis or Van Roten? Jones appeared in 13 games, but didn't start any, so it doesn't sound like he would have helped. Jackson started all 16 games, but would he have been an improvement over Lewis or Van Roten? Instead of Zuniga, he could have taken Bryan Edwards, but Edwards had character questions that may have moved him down or off the Jets' draft board. Edwards had a grand total of 11 receptions in 12 games (including 3 starts), so I doubt that he would have helped Sam any. Devin Duvernay had 20 receptions in 16 games, including 3 starts, so I doubt that he would have helped, either. In the 4th round, he could have taken Gabriel Davis instead of Perine, but we needed a RB. Was it JD's fault that Gase ran Gore so many times instead of Johnson, Perine or Adams?
The NW was not worse IMO; I don’t even think is was that bad of a game. They played coverage in the back and dared OSU to beat them on the ground. OSU obliged. Fields just managed the game. The box score is not indicative of how the game played out. Indiana is by far his worse game as they fooled him several times with last minute post snap coverages. They sped him up got him to press and play hero ball. Something he hasn’t done in any other game including against Northwesten.
Fields is not no “hybrid” whatever the f that means. Neither is Allen. Lamar is the only QB on that list whose offense is built around his running ability. Everyone else, like Fields use their mobility to varying degrees but not dependent on it.
