To be fair to the Vegas odds, they are based on draft odds that he will be picked second - not necessarily to the Jets. But I do agree with both - Vegas usually knows although I've never really looked at it from a betting angle.
I'm sure you're done your due diligence, and can list lots of stats to "prove" your POV, but this is a case of stats not telling the truth. Yes, Darnold has blame to bear, I'm not disputing that, but the circumstances that he's had to endure added up to a "perfect storm", where one thing built on another, built on another. First, he needed work coming out of college to fix his footwork, and especially reading defenses. That didn't happen. Even if the Jets DID try to teach him how to read "D", the absolutely shitty OL prevented him from being able to apply the lessons because he was under pressure so often and resorted to old habits. This is one of the costs of starting him right away. And this also affected his footwork - you can't apply a new muscle movement under that kind of duress either. And all of this just worse under Gase. Sure, he misses open receivers. Guess what? So does Tom Brady and Aaron Rodgers! Do they miss as many as he does? Of course not, but it's not like they're perfect, or that it's even possible to be. Again, being under pressure so often has led to regression in this and other aspects of his game. You cannot divorce the cause and effect. I'm not going to assert that the Jets should stick with Darnold as their (hopeful) FQB. At this point it's doubtful that he can become that good - possible but not likely - and there are QBs in this draft who I think are better than Darnold was at USC. But he can be god enough to start, and enable whoever they draft to sit and learn which is something they should've done for him.
I bet that since the new staff came on board they have been in Cal. working with Sam. By now they know what he can and can't do. Notice we have heard nothing from the player or his agent. The idea that Wilson who they have only seen in shorts is a sure thing is silly.
We've gone thru the 'New QB!!!' thrill so many times and it NEVER seems to work out. Todd. Obrien. Pennington. Favre. Nacho. Geno. Hack. Sam. Each one of these name represents an era of mainly disappointment laced here and there with some highlights. Miracle in the Meadowlands...knocking the Cheaters out the POs. To few really. Just once I'd like to see the Jets with a competent coaching staff AND a competent GM who can build a line, build a defense, and surround our QB with talent. Just ONCE. Do I REALLY want to start a new era with a new rookie QB? or keep going with Sam maybe? who the fuck knows. Why can other teams seem to figure this shit out but it seems so difficult when it comes to the Jets.
Oh, brother. You continually claim that we must not trade down and take Wilson now because, according to you, next year's class of QBs (2022 draft) is not going to be that good. Now you say we can "book on that." How do you KNOW that? Tell me, who the hell ever heard of Zach Wilson at this time LAST YEAR (April 2020)? As I understand it, Wilson had a mediocre at best 2019 season, and was in a fight for the starting job at the start of 2020. Playing against a weak schedule, he had a terrific season, and now you and others want to appoint him as our savior. The very fact that you continually trumpet how great Wilson was in 2020, after a medicocre 2019, PROVES that predictions of the QB class of 2022 should be given with care. You are making a good point for trading down--With the haul of picks we can get, the jets can very likely get another one year wonder or least a decent QB in 2021-2022 drafts, if that is what you want. A better choice would be to give Sam a real chance in 2021 with some real coaching and use the picks for a more talented roster. Or is Wilson SUCH a special athlete that no one else can ever improve so much over one year? Was Zach Wilson on your radar in April 2020 as the possible number 2 pick in 2021? I understand Douglas will probably take Wilson, which IMO will be a huge error by not trading down for the fortune of picks to beef up a weak roster. I hope Douglas is not using your rationale by believing that there cannot ever be another QB like Wilson who makes a meteoric jump in one year. I don't seem him worth what we can get in return for that pick. I don't think any of us can predict now how the QB class of 2022 will be and your boy Wilson is proof of that.
It's not just Wilson at #2. It's QB, period. It doesn't have to be Wilson. It could be Fields or maybe even Lance. I wouldn't take Jones at #2. Burrow improved dramatically in one year as did Wilson. That is exceedingly rare, however. QBs don't usually improve as much as they did in one year. They may improve, but it's by a smaller degree. In addition, you do know that Wilson had surgery on the labrum in his throwing shoulder of January 2019 and missed spring practice, then broke his right hand during the season, had surgery, missed three games then came back, don't you? Think that those two might surgeries might have had some impact on how he played that year? ROFLOL! Giving Sam a chance in 2021 is NOT a better choice. That's flat out delusional and laughable, and not even in the realm of reality. What you don't get is that even if we got a "fortune of picks" this year for trading down, it would cost a bigger fortune next year as prices continually increase, and we'll be drafting lower, so it will cost even more. A fortune of picks this year, could well be two fortunes of picks next year.
I need more than 5 million reasons to change my mind. I need 6 million. Hey, call me the "six million dollar man!' Just teasing ya, buddy.
What do you consider "a fortune of picks"? Because I don't consider 2 additional first rounders not even in this year, plus a 3rd rounder this year and a second rounder next year a "fortune". It's not three firsts - one of those firsts is simply the one they got in trade for the #2 pick. And the "fortune" is spread over three years. Of course none of the QBs are "can't miss" - NO player is. What are you going to say next year (or in 2023) when you decide to trade up, having to give up likely more in draft picks than you got this year - will the odds be better? Unless you want to wait until 2026 when Arch Manning comes out (assuming he remains injury free and as good as his grandfather and uncles). If the Jets do trade back, they had better get more than what you describe as a "fortune" because that's fool's gold. And if they're being asked to trade back into the 10-20 range, I'd want TWO first rounders this year - the one they traded back to, plus another one, and a second this year, and a first and at least a third next year, and maybe a first in 2023.
Now yer talking! JD trades down, gets more picks, takes Jones as future QB. We see Sam's true colors in 2021. If good, we keep him. If bad, give Jones a chance. And we got some more picks to reverse the disaster of Mike MacCagnan drafts of 2015-2019.
I really do not understand why so many on this board think a team HAS to "trade up" to get a decent QB. Russell Wilson, Rodgers, Brady, Montana were not trade ups. Good grief, Marino had 5 QBs taken before him in the draft. Ask the Bears how their trade up for Mitchell T. went--Look at our jets--they traded up for Sanchez and he didn't last very long in the league. I understand that a trade up for a talent like Mahomes was shrewd, but it is not always the magic formula.
I'd be okay with that, but it hinges on them being able to get a good QB and there's no guarantee once they trade back that they can get one. That's one of the big problems with trading back. You lose control of your own destiny. And while I get your point about we don't know that there won't be one or two guys who come out of nowhere next year, it doesn't change the fact that even with 4-5 QBs who are highly rated, you only ever see 1-2 actually become legit FQBs, if that, so the odds of getting a shot at one next year, even if you pay more than you got this year in draft picks, AND a team with a Top 3 pick agrees to trade, are not good. Meanwhile you had better have nailed all the draft picks you got for trading back and hope that Wilson or Fields don't work out.
Well of course they don't HAVE TO trade up. They can sit and wait for a year, two, three, four, five, a decade, until the right combination of a QB they want and their draft pick align. In the meantime they have the likes of Darnold, or some other JAG playing QB at maybe a good enough level to make the playoffs once in a while, but almost certainly not winning a SB. Because they're not going to get a good QB via FA or a trade. It's possible that the waiting game could pay off, but the odds are less than them taking Wilson or Fields at #2 this year.
You say if we start Sam we will be terrible but then go on to say that we will be drafting too low to take a QB next season. The odds are pretty good that we will be drafting top 10 next season no matter who starts.
What's more important than WHAT QB you draft is what you do WITH the QB after you draft him. Our own Jets have ruined many a good QB that coulda been GREAT on a better team. And it works in revers too. Saleh and company might be able to compete every year at the highest levels with 'just' a top 10 QB, where the only hope we had for the old Jets was to draft a FQB1 who could rise above our garbage coaching, garbage oline, and garbage team and win games in spite of the Jets. We might be better off with a top 10 QB playing on a solid team top to bottom than a FQB on a Jets team with holes in the roster.
Well, that depends upon what the team needs in rebuilding. If they don't need a QB, sure trading down for a haul is a great way to rebuild. If they need a QB, unless they simply aren't interested in winning, their best chance at getting a FQB is to draft in the top 5. If they're already in the top 5, they may be able to trade down a spot or two, but they're taking a risk, because some team could trade up ahead of them and take the QB they want. No NFL team that needs a QB trades down and passes on taking one of the top QBs in the draft. They may trade down a few spots and take a QB, but they don't skip on taking a QB at all, and think they'll get one the following year unless there's not a QB they like in the draft that they think will be available to them, or they don't have the draft capital to trade up into the top 5. If you think there are teams that have done, kindly provide names and links to articles documenting that. We just saw that the Eagles wanted to trade up, ostensibly to take a QB and they have a young QB they like. SF did trade up.The Jets traded up for Sanchez and Sam. Many, many teams have traded up for their QB. Until you or someone provides solid concrete evidence that teams do this and can quote a topnotch GM saying that this is a valid way to build or rebuild one's team, I will continue to say that it is a fallacy and nonsense.
Respectfully, my friend, I couldn't possibly disagree more. Sam had those problems at USC, and they are things that he could have fixed, and should have fixed working with Jordan Palmer for the last 3 years. These aren't new problems that just cropped up because of the poor OL or not having good players around him, or having lousy coaching. These things that he should have been able to fix working with his QB coach. That he hasn't fixed them more than likely indicates that either he cannot fix them, or he has no interest in putting in the needed work or in making the changes themselves.
No, I didn't say we'd be terrible, I said we'd be lucky to make the playoffs once in a while at best. Which means we'd be in the 7-10 to 10-7 range, with next year maybe a little less, say 6-11. That would put us drafting somewhere between 10-15 probably. That's a far reach to convince someone to trade back from #1 or #2. If we get that record with our new QB starting, that's okay, but not if we have Darnold or some other JAG starting because then we still need a FQB but we're sitting too far back to get one.
Where are you getting this Top 10 QB from? It would take a miracle for Darnold to become one of those, and even if he did, it would probably take at least 2 years. Trade for one? Who, besides Handjob Watson? FA? You'll have to wait until next year if even a Top 10 one shakes loose - almost unheard of. To get "just a Top 10 QB" means you're going to have to draft one, and that means getting one of the top ones, not some 3rd of 4th round project. If you have another source or answer, let me know.
Well I disagree. You can work all you want with a QB coach, but until you put what you learn into real game practice, what you learn isn't going to stick. And that's the problem: his real game experience was a shit show. And yes, Darnold contributed to that, but it doesn't change the fact that trying to learn and improve on things in those conditions is nearly impossible.
We'll just have to agree to disagree. Whose fault is it that Sam didn't put into practice in games what he worked on with Palmer? Sam's. There's no way you can pin that on Gase. If Sam has fixed his footwork, it's going to stick, regardless of what system he's playing in, who his HC or OC is, and what crazy things they ask him to. His footwork would be established, and he should then be able to adjust easily to how ever many step drops he needed to take and be in good throwing position unless he's rolling out or running to escape the rush, and even then he should be accurate, and oddly, Sam is more accurate on the run than he is when he is stationary. The same thing goes for decision making. No HC or OC is going to tell him to run out of bounds or take a sack or throw the ball into double or triple coverage. The same thing also goes for reading a defense. Once one masters reading a D in one system, it should be fairly easy to pick up reading the D in another system. There are certain keys that they are taught to look for. Either Sam can't remember them, or never bothered to learn them. He works with Palmer in the offseason, so there should be no conflict or confusion. Again, if the changes are thoroughly integrated into his muscle memory and computer, they should be pretty solid by the time he reports for TC. There might be an occasional hiccup, but no wholesale abandonment of what he had worked on, and we have never seen even any hints that his footwork was getting better or his ability to read Ds was getting better.
