The bold is just blatantly false. There are many studies looking at chances of getting a starter from someone picked 1-5, 5-10, 10-20 etc. It's higher the higher you draft a guy. Your logic is faulty singling out the #2 pick alone. There are hundreds of picks other than the #2 pick itself, of course more QB's are going to come from picks other than #2 exactly. It's like saying more starting QB's get taken away from the #1 pick than from the #1 pick. That's different than saying the likelihood of getting a starter is higher with the #1 pick than others. 6% less completion % 1.4 less Y/A 2.3 less adjusted Y/A 11: 1 TD:INT ratio for Wilson vs. 4:1 for Rattler That's significant. Also funny how Rattler "has all the physical tools" at 6'1 205 but you talk a lot about how Wilson is concerningly small at 6'2 215. Wilson also runs a 4.5-4.6. Not that I think that matters, but how does he not also have "all the physical tools" if Rattler does? Seems a bit biased to me.
How about providing the math behind this claim? In fact, the higher your draft position, the better your odds of having the opportunity to draft a FQB. Note, that this opportunity can, and is, often wasted by poor decisions by the drafting team, but that just means that they blew their chance, not that their chance wasn't more favorable. If there is no advantage to having a higher pick, why do all the leagues have some form of rewarding the weaker teams with higher pick? The success of QBs drafted later isn't because they were drafted later, it's because the teams that drafted them knew what they were doing.
Is he talked about being as good as Lawrence, Fields, or Wilson? Lot's of QBs have won Heismans but not many of those were successful in the NFL.
And I think Howell is only 5'10". The utter BS some of these posters spout to try to support their ridiculous assertion that building the team first is better than taking the QB, or that there are two valid ways to build a team is truly laughable.
Oh yeah. He's gotta add some girth to his frame for sure. But he has an absolute rocket of an arm as compared to Wilson's famous floaters. We'll see how tall Rattler is and if he adds some weight. Good thing he's not coming out this year. Wilson's size is also only concerning because he has an injury history already. And he just spent the season as one of the best protected quarterbacks in the nation against mid-tier teams. I don't like his arm strength at all in terms of consistent zip though. But the potential injury issues compound that problem. One rotator cuff injury might be fine, but one more and his career is probably over. Rattler plays in a big boy conference where he just got knocked around for a year and was fine without a major injury.
I'm not doing this again. There is a search function on TGG where you can look up the half dozen related posts I have done with all the numbers. If you're interested have at it. If not, well I've already answered the question ad nauseum and I'm not going to re-do all the work again because you didn't get it the first half dozen times.
You pay too much attention to odds and statistics, and not enough to using your eyes and brain. The Jets have just as good an opportunity to draft a FQB as the Jags do. If you had watched Wilson and studied him, you'd know that. The same goes for Fields, Lance, and Mac Jones. They all have excellent chances of becoming FQBs they have elite aspects and with the right coaching and situation, could very easily become FQBs.
He has a pretty highly anticipated sophomore season coming up, so yeah he's being talked about as a pro prospect. Sorry to rain on everyone's parade, but the chances of 3 or more good quarterbacks coming out of a single class is extremely minute.
Finding a franchise QB is the riskiest job in the entire NFL scouting process. Especially the highly rated ones. The Jets are long overdue. We have had some bombs. Richard Todd, Ken O'Brien. I remember Matt Robinson 9th round draft choice lighting it up for the Jets with 13 TD's. The Jets traded him to the Broncos and the next 4 years combined he never reach 13 TD's. Out of football 3 years later. So finding a good QB is tough.
IMO. The strategy of not getting your QB until you have the weapons is incorrect, because opportunity is always against you. . A FQB is the hardest thing to find and requires luck, timing and having the right pick available when you want him. The issue is not whether there will be equal or better opportunities next year or the year after. That is secondary in my opinion. The issue is we might not be in a position to get our choice in the future without mortgaging a kings ransom. You must get your guy when you can, and sit him for a year if you have to till he is ready. Having a solid OL is important no matter who the QB is so we need to get it done now. Ease our new QB mid season if we have to, after he masters at least a subset of the playbook and the line jells properly.
Howell is listed at 6'1" so who is spouting bullshit here? Not that it matters though. I don't think he'll be much of a pro player anyways.
I love the rationale that no QB in this draft is worth taking at the 2 overall spot yet they also think that other teams will not only take a QB at #2 but they would give up significant draft capital to move up to do so. I don't get it. Johnny Message Board poster is smarter than all the other paid professionals.
Likewise. You act as if I and others haven't answered your assertions ad nauseum ourselves. We'll just have to agree that we'll never agree.
That's exactly why so many are taken in the first round. Teams think they have found one and are constantly searching for one.
draft Wilson at #2 Trade Darnold + 23 for Jimmy G + 12 It’s the perfect situation as Jimmy can help groom Wilson and we take on his salary with the compensation of moving up from 23 to 12. After this season we unleash Wilson with a whole new crop of picks in 2022. It gives the kid a chance to get brought up to speed and not thrown to the wolves like we did with Darnold and Nacho. We need to learn from this!!
Br4d, your analysis is flawed as myself and others have pointed out. You looked at individual picks instead of pick ranges. Of course more starters come from other picks than #2 exactly, a lot more guys are taken at picks other than #2. Read this: https://football.pitcherlist.com/pessimists-guide-to-the-nfl-draft/
QBs are most often taken in the first round because they are - by far - the most valuable position on the team. Teams that don't have one - or one they love - will certainly use their highest pick if they think a QB they do love can be had with that pick. What are you trying to say here? That it's not wise to take a QB in the first round?
But most of the good ones are found in the later rounds like Garrapolo, Brady, Wilson, Nick Foles, Dax Prescott.
